Immupharma Share Discussion Threads

[fidra] 12/12/2017 13:20

I would agree looks like they used the old 500m .thats why I thought the note was an old one,

It is way to conservative for a positive outcome here.

[hottingup] 12/12/2017 13:13

Look at this and make up your own mind:

Lupuzor revenues could be huge:

40,000 patients at $25,000 pa = $1 billion pa revenue
50,000 patients at $25,000 pa = $1.25 billion pa revenue
100,000 patients at $25,000 pa = $2.5 billion pa revenue
150,000 patients at $25,000 pa = $3.75 billion pa revenue
250,000 patients at $25,000 pa = $6.25 billion pa revenue
500,000 patients at $25,000 pa = $12.5 billion pa revenue
750,000 patients at $25,000 pa = $18.75 billion pa revenue
1,000,000 patients at $25,000 pa = $25 billion pa revenue
1,250,000 patients at $25,000 pa = $31.25 billion pa revenue

40,000 patients at $30,000 pa = $1.2 billion pa revenue
50,000 patients at $30,000 pa = $1.5 billion pa revenue
100,000 patients at $30,000 pa = $3 billion pa revenue
150,000 patients at $30,000 pa = $4.5 billion pa revenue
250,000 patients at $30,000 pa = $7.5 billion pa revenue
500,000 patients at $30,000 pa = $15 billion pa revenue
750,000 patients at $30,000 pa = $22.5 billion pa revenue
1,000,000 patients at $30,000 pa = $30 billion pa revenue
1,250,000 patients at $30,000 pa = $37.5 billion pa revenue

"There are approximately 5 million patients across the world that suffer from lupus...from a commercial perspective we could probably target 1.5 to 2 million of those sufferers in what I call the commercial markets - North America, Europe, Far East...looking at the economics...this is a drug that would probably sell at around $25,000 to $30,000 per year per patient..." (Tim McCarthy, IMM Chairman - Stocktube, Sep 2017)

Data from IMM suggests Lupuzor / P140 / Forigerimod may be able to treat several blockbuster autoimmune and non-autoimmune diseases, including:

Lupuzor™ Symposium
8th June 2016 - 3:35 pm

41 min 40 sec onwards:


- Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) (Market size $4 bn) (SLE ends Phase 3, Q1 2018)
- Neuropsychiatric lupus (NPSLE)
- Gougerot-Sjögren syndrome (GSS) (Market size $2.2 bn by 2024)
- Rheumatoid Arthritis (Market size $28.5 bn by 2025)
- Gougerot-Sjögren syndrome (GSS) (Market size $2.2 bn by 2024)
- Crohn's Disease + Ulcerative Colitis (Market size $4 bn by 2022)
- Guillan-Barre disease
- Chronic Inflammatory Demyelinating Polyneuropathy (CIDP)
- Asthma (Market size $20.7 bn in 2015)

Other potential evaluations:
- Scleroderma (Systemic Sclerosis, Raynaud)
- Psoriasis
- Multiple Sclerosis (MS) (Market size $20 bn by 2024)
- (Others to follow)

Negative preclinical results for potential re-evaluation:
- Type I Diabetes (Market size $43 bn by 2021)
- Amytrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS)

IMM have a new Lupuzor patent (granted 2017) covering key markets (USA, EU, China, India & Japan) to 2032 & use in the majority of autoimmune indications. A new patent has also been filed to cover non-autoimmune indications. (IMM, Sep 2017)

Lupuzor could therefore be several blockbusters in one. (Analysts Edison stated they "understand that a majority of Phase IIb (Lupuzor) patients showed resolution of the arthritis measure (four point score)". The Rheumatoid Arthritis market size is estimated at $28.5bn by 2025. This and other indications could add significantly to the value of Lupuzor in negotiations.

Preparation for regulatory submission

[top tips] 12/12/2017 13:11

See my Post 7218 (reproduced below). $500m milestones is tiny today. They have just copied what IMM originally would have got from Cephalon in the old superceded 2009 deal.
Things have moved on with Lupuzor, IMM and the overall market. Worth shed loads more now.

------------------

top tips
12 Dec '17 - 12:40 - 7218 of 7225 Edit
0 1 0
IMM's original Lupuzor deal with Cephalon in 2009 before IMM regained control of the drug, was worth $500m in upfront and milestone playments, plus royalties on sales. $500m is more than the current market capitalisation of IMM (£222.64m at 168p) with Lupuzor and the entire pipeline, and was on earlier Lupuzor data and before the newly granted patent applicable to more geographic areas and indications and a lengthened time period (2032). That alone shows how cheap we are.

Funny old world. Chug, chug, chug along, until the next annoucement and top-up regularly.

P.S.
$500m = £375m = 283p


top tips
12 Dec '17 - 12:49 - 7220 of 7225 Edit
0 1 0
And obviously on the basis of a Phase 3 pass, or takeover following Phase 3, Lupuzor and IMM would be worth many times more.

[sportbilly1976] 12/12/2017 13:07

Ok - quick analysis of FinnCap's note this am.

Unusual upside potential initiates their 237p 'current state' valuation

Successful Phase III results then giving 50p per share upfront royalty (or implied £66.2mln) & milestone payments of c.£500mln (386p per share).


Using the £20-25k per patient cost and deducting the 15% payment to CNRS, this would equate to between just 35k and 44k patients during the lifetime of the drug


Yet they put this under the 'blockbuster' category...sales >$1bln (£748mln at today's 1.3361 fx)
IMM themselves are looking to target 1,500k to 2,000k unit sales


Applying the same milestone payment calculation Finntech have used to get to the £386mln, but using IMM's patient volume target would imply a multiple of c45x!!

It certainly seems to be ultra-conservative at the very least

Feel free to comment on my methodology. The assumption of £500mln milestone payments is over the lifetime is the main one...but a share price should represent the (discounted) sum of future earnings

[top tips] 12/12/2017 12:49

And obviously on the basis of a Phase 3 pass, or takeover following Phase 3, Lupuzor and IMM would be worth many times more.

[top tips] 12/12/2017 12:40

IMM's original Lupuzor deal with Cephalon in 2009 before IMM regained control of the drug, was worth $500m in upfront and milestone playments, plus royalties on sales. $500m is more than the current market capitalisation of IMM (£222.64m at 168p) with Lupuzor and the entire pipeline, and was on earlier Lupuzor data and before the newly granted patent applicable to more geographic areas and indications and a lengthened time period (2032). That alone shows how cheap we are.

Funny old world. Chug, chug, chug along, until the next annoucement and top-up regularly.

P.S.
$500m = £375m = 283p

[ny boy] 12/12/2017 12:12

Happy holding here since 52p, action starts next month, tick tock.

Looking at my next fortune with (BLU)Blockchain is where the action is, already tripled my investment but at 0.6p its ridiculously cheap imho dyor as usual

Also holding VELA etc

[englishlongbow] 12/12/2017 12:08

kensingtoncourt i agree lupuzor could become one of th etop 10 selling drugs.

IMM is worth more than £40 on a good lupuzor Phase III.

[hamhamham1] 12/12/2017 12:02

I can't even buy 10 shares over the past minute or two. Lloyds are a rubbish broker!

[mad foetus] 12/12/2017 11:59

The potential returns mean that in my view every investor should have at least 1-2% of his portfolio here. It may be a relatively binary play but the odds are fantastic

[fidra] 12/12/2017 11:40

Thanks sportsbilly1976,

[sportbilly1976] 12/12/2017 11:34

Morning note released today;

hxxps://www.research-tree.com/companies/uk/biotechnology/immupharma

[fidra] 12/12/2017 11:29

Was the fin cap note really today?
As with others I think it very conservative ,compared to other succesful $billion selling medicines.

[hottingup] 12/12/2017 11:25

Its nice to see some more analyst coverage of IMM today but I wish Finncap had been more realistic with their figures instead of underestimating and looked at the wider potential of Lupuzor beyond lupus.

GSK's Benlysta is predicted to reach $1 billion sales by 2020, which would all go to IMM's Lupuzor if it passes Phase 3 in Q1 2018 and Lupuzor should go on to be a multi-billion seller on lupus and the numerous other indications it could treat (including some with laeger markets than for lupus).

The way I see it is that Finncap's valuation will only serve to increase IMM shareholder and management acceptance of a takeover at or above £40/share to give a better and quicker return.

Northcap's Alexander Vadim said in his July 2017 presentation:

"HGSi's takeout price was $3.6 billion for 50% of the rights (to Benlysta) so we can assume roughly Benlysta was bought for $7 billion...and that's in 2012...so if we are looking at a drug (Lupuzor) that could be better, the price could be higher...a novel treatment for lupus could command that price...because it already has..."

i.e. the takeover valuation for IMM's Lupuzor just treating lupus, is at least $7 billion, which equates to approx £40/share, or more if you add in other indications and the rest of the pipeline.

Does anyone seriously think we will not be bombarded with takeover offers if the Lupuzor Phase 3 results are satisfactory?

[asat91] 12/12/2017 11:07

Amazing broker forecast for us and as others have said this is on the conservative side.

Helps the twitchy finger stay away ;)

[herschel k] 12/12/2017 10:32

"this would be increased 87% to 441p"

87% of 237p is 206p, making it 443p.

here to be a pedant.

:)

H

[ny boy] 12/12/2017 10:21

3rd eye..do you have a link to Finntech note?

[3rd eye] 12/12/2017 10:18

Finntech's 237p target for IMM is 'at today'.

They are also saying for successful Phase III trial results this would be increased 87% to 441p with Lupiznor revenue on top being 50p one-off and 386p recurring - so 877p.

Phase III results due Q1 😀😎

[ny boy] 12/12/2017 10:16

As I said before there is obviously a stock shortage, as so many are buying to hold for the main events kicking off early next year.

Happy to see 20p rises a week leading up to the phase 3 results, possibly 25-50p rises just in January, not many trading days until end of January allowing for holidays.

This story must of brought investor interest to the sector yesterday...

Excitement as trial shows Huntington's drug could slow progress of disease

[wossupsa] 12/12/2017 10:14

Just 115k purchases would see us up at 10 squid according to market depth indicators on Saxo trading portal, lol.

[legg96] 12/12/2017 10:11

Just seems there is very little stock available to meet demand. Only 12,000 shares available upto 195p on level 2 apart from brokers offering 5000 each and we may see another day with 1.0 million shares traded.

[3rd eye] 12/12/2017 09:56

IMM ImmuPharma starting to look hot again after broker FinnCap Initiated a start share price target of 237.00p on the stock.