Hayward Tyl Share Discussion Threads

[rhomboid] 23/6/2016 14:58

Hi jeansey

From the AR:

"In revenue terms, the USA was our biggest single geographical market accounting for
24% (FY2014: 25%) of total sales re ecting our strong domestic business there. The Far East was the next largest market accounting for
23% of revenues (FY2014: 16%) underpinned by China and South Korea. Domestic UK revenues increased slightly to 12% (FY2014: 9%) and South Africa performed strongly with 7% of revenues (FY2014: 6%), driven by sales of BCP spares. European revenues were down to 8% (FY2014: 17%) as a result of lower oil and gas revenues whilst revenues derived from India were 4% (FY2014: 4%), re ecting the previously"

So not a lot of EU exposure and a weaker pound would be great for margins elsewhere

[jeanesy] 23/6/2016 13:38

Do you not think that the price here has been affected by Brexit concerns ?

[rhomboid] 23/6/2016 13:37

Hi Rivaldo
This has been a frustrating company to hold shares in over the last year or more, the transformation of the manufacturing capabilities & the acquisition of Peter Brotherwood seem to be still beneath the radar of major new investors, I'm hopeful that the results will start the process of a rerating to reflect the progress on the ground. I hold a large holding here but I'm confident value will out.

[rivaldo] 23/6/2016 10:50

Final results will be out soon, on 5th July, and we know from the trading update they'll be broadly in line with expectations at around 8.2p EPS (with a 1.4p dividend).

Most importantly, the order book is up hugely, boding well for this and coming years.

The share price has gone nowhere for some time now, but I'm hopeful that funds and institutions will follow their money from last November's 90p placing as they understand the transformation of the company and the doubling or more of capacity, the agreements with FMC and Ebara etc.

[jeanesy] 17/6/2016 09:44

Still falling. Anyone know why ????

[jeanesy] 15/6/2016 09:51

How much lower is this going to go. Is it the brexit factor that is depressing the price?

[rhomboid] 09/6/2016 12:43

Fascinating thx rivaldo, I can see this business growing strongly over the next decade

[rivaldo] 09/6/2016 12:30

Interesting new slideshow about the Luton expansion and how it was simulated visually. Slide 4 notes that Luton can now double its turnover to £60m from £30m, and a similar process is now happening at the Peter Brotherhood site in Peterborough:

[rivaldo] 07/6/2016 09:36

HAYT aren't just investing for expansion in Luton:



"HTFH Transformation Project, East Kilbride, Scotland – Phase 1

While HTG is investing in the development of a Centre of Excellence (CoE) in Luton, continuing support for its other global sites (Peter Brotherhood (England), HTFH (Scotland), HTInc (USA), HTK (China) and HTI (India) are being planned on a benefits/cost basis.

In order to future proof the HTFH facility in Scotland a degree of upgrading is required in order to bring its systems, processes, infrastructure and machinery to the desired ISO9 / Fit 4 Nuclear Group level. Using Lean Sigma techniques and processes HTG’s “Transformation Team” have instigated a future proofing improvement project at its HTFH facility in Scotland, supported by the Scottish Enterprise.

The future proofing plan is to modernise the shop floor and systems first by way of consolidating all manufacturing into 2 bays, allowing the team to bring bay 1 & there after bay 2 up to ISO9 / Fit 4 N particulate level compliance, in order to be able to manufacture Subsea, Nuclear Power and Oil and Gas component parts to the same level of quality as the CoE in Luton.

Several events are being run throughout the year including a Mega 5s event, a Creative-Destructive event, clean lean certification events and site wide communication events. The first phase of the transformation was a Mega 5S event, attended by Rhona Alison, Head of Business Development at Scottish Enterprise."

[rivaldo] 02/6/2016 12:38

Finncap retain their 113p target here:

[jeanesy] 31/5/2016 17:31

Someone is still off loading shares in 50k chunks. Who and why?

[rivaldo] 30/5/2016 23:31

Cheers topvest, good spot, and good to see you buying in here.

I've found a link to North Atlantic Smaller Companies' recent annual report, with the comments on HAYT to be found on p.15:



Extract:

"The outlook for the business over the medium term looks highly favourable with profits capable of rising to £8 million to £8.5 million (EBITDA £9.25 million to £9.75 million) by March 2018 as the benefits of the new plant become apparent."

If so, the current £45m m/cap presents substantial upside, certainly a one-bagger and perhaps a lot more.

[topvest] 27/5/2016 16:22

Taken a small holding here. Had looked at these before, but it was the North Atlantic Smaller Companies annual report comments (page 13) which encouraged me to take the plunge. Christopher Mills is right much more often than he is wrong. He basically thinks profitability will double in the short to medium term. You can buy at 8p cheaper than the 90p placing.

[rivaldo] 29/4/2016 08:45

Continuing to move up.

Finncap's 113p target price given the 8.8p EPS forecast for this year would still represent a current year P/E of only 12.8, so not too much of a stretch.

Another good set of results might see the P/E multiple move upwards - or, more likely in the short term imo, another acquisition after PB has been fully integrated will increase forecasts and target prices.

[rogerrail] 28/4/2016 19:23

Cerrito, 2014 sales would imply a run rate of about £2.5m/month, so order intake for first 5 months would appear below par. But the acquisition cost of $15m would suggest a lower sales level, no doubt Siemens would have retained some business.

[rivaldo] 28/4/2016 11:04

Good to see a 15k buy at 87.44p - well above the published 87p offer price.

[rivaldo] 28/4/2016 08:49

Interview with the CEO, and good to see Finncap maintaining their 8.8p EPS forecast for this year as I hoped above:

http ://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/125276/hayward-tyler-on-the-hunt-for-big-ticket-orders-125276.html

"Shares rose 3.9% to 84.7p in the morning trading session, some way below house broker finnCap's target price of 113p.

"We maintain our 2017 forecasts with a robust increase in the order book. The shares appear attractively valued versus the industrial peer group," finnCap said."

[rivaldo] 27/4/2016 22:56

Cerrito, I agree - the likelihood is for £5m PBT as you say, equating to around 8p historic EPS.

Forecasts for this year will likely be kept at the current 8.8p EPS, and may even be increased given the uplift in the order books and all of the contract work mentioned today.

A single-figure current year P/E, plus the solid TNAV, plus the global growth potential, make HAYT pretty good value imho.

Cheers gws, appreciated.

[gswredland] 27/4/2016 18:06

Thanks for your posts Rivaldo

[cerrito] 27/4/2016 16:37

Good question Roger Rail
Given that this is for 5 months of HAYT's ownership and that PB's calendar 2014 sales were $46m I would hazard a rather ignorant view that it is reasonably good.

Rather surprised that after all this activity they are only broadly in line with market expectations but on second thoughts a lot of this will come through the top/ bottom line in this 16/17 financial year.
My understanding of market expectations-which may be wrong –is for 2015/16 PBT to be £5.2m; bearing in mind they are broadly I line that to me suggests it will be £5m. As first half PBT was £1.6m that would suggest £3.4m in H2 which even allowing for 5 months of PB would be v good. Is that how others see it?

[rogerrail] 27/4/2016 13:52

do we know if £7.4 m order intake and order book of circa £9m for PB is good or bad?!

[rivaldo] 27/4/2016 12:22

A snippet from the IC today:

"Shares in Hayward Tyler (HAYT) rose 3 per cent in morning trading after the maker of pumps and motors reported a 47 per cent increase in order intake in the year to March. Peter Brotherhood, which was acquired last October, contributed £7.4m to this increase, while management also confirmed that the project to double capacity remains on track to be commissioned by the end of June. Buy."

[rivaldo] 27/4/2016 08:48

Finncap reiterate their 113p target this morning:

[tallprawn] 27/4/2016 08:03

Excellent update this morning - Some really strong pipeline building here for this year. This should really be testing and pushing through the £1 mark over the next few weeks imo.. GL all holders.

[p1nkfish] 27/4/2016 07:41

good to see debt ratio better than kpi target.
very positive all round.
strong hold.