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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hayward Tyl | HAYT | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0.00% | 50.75 | 01:00:00 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50.75 | 50.75 |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 30/6/2017 09:55 by lignum The falling AVG price is partly due to arbitrage surely. I think the HAYT board have played this very badly and deserve to go - how can 0 ebitda support 20m of debt? They should have accepted AVG with open arms months ago and not wasted 3 months on protecting their own jobs (which they must have known were on the line).HAYT state that one of the reasons for supporting the bid was that without it they would have needed a heavily discounted rights issue which would have been hugely dilutive and which might not have been successful. This must have been blindingly obvious 3 months ago as soon as they knew their year end debt position. And yet they hung on for another 3 months. Very poor IMO. I would love to see AVG's model of how much cost they expect to take out of the combined business. Free from debt and focusing on protecting their jobs, I would expect a number of customers to sign up orders they were holding back as soon as the board changes kick in. AVG will be preparing their week 1 action plan over the next few weeks and will move very quickly once they take control. This has to be a win-win for HAYT and AVG shareholders. |
Posted at 23/6/2017 11:26 by pavey ark A cash offer of 60p would be an absolute steal as this would mean that HAYT was priced at £33m. Throw in £7m to bring debt to a very manageable and efficient level and you've got a company which has a recent history of producing an EBITDA of £7m/£8m, an order book of over £60m and a high recurring revenue,all for £40m.If the metal box makers do manage to pull this off I may have to look at them again. All this being said a 60p price would give me a very nice return as I bought for 38p. I do think that there will be a deal here but I'd certainly be happy to see HAYT going it alone. |
Posted at 02/5/2017 13:26 by thorne3 The thing to remember about AVG is that it has next to no profits to talk of and a very high share price which has been largely wound up on the back of a possible deal with HAYT;accordingly AVG really does need a deal if it is to sustain its reputation as a"mini MELROSE".I for one would not want any AVG paper at this level and nor I suspect would the Directors of HAYT.The net result is that any takeover talks are probably in limbo at the present time and that AVG is being used very much as a stalking horse to enable HAYT(1) to arrange an equity placement of say £7.5m on acceptable terms and (2)to finalise a lending package with its bankers.At that stage I would imagine that there might be a number of companies around with sufficient clout to acquire HAYT for cash on terms agreeable to us all. |
Posted at 02/5/2017 09:24 by pavey ark Cerrito, nice to see a declared, upfront interest in AVG but I don't think you should beat yourself up about going with the tender offer as the AVG management were only too willing to take the cash and they should know.Nothing has really changed with AVG since the tender offer except that it has been tipped repeatedly in IC. As far as valuing HAYT, I think that most of the HAYT ( sorry AVG) shareholders need to consider a number of points. Now I know that your shareholding in AVG has risen by c.20% since you thought you knew better than the management but I get the distinct whiff of desperation here and it looks to me that this deal is becoming very important to AVG. HAYT and almost every other company runs on a certain amount of debt and to suggest that they should be made debt free as a result of any deal is simplistic ( stupid?) Year end March 2015 EBITDA £6.5m Year end March 2016 EBITDA £7.2m H2 march 2017 estimated EBITDA £4.5m And with the very large order book and significantly increased t/o an EBITDA of £8m this year looks perfectly reasonable. Now I have a significant holding in another engineering/ defence company and Edison research produced a very detailed table of the EV/ EBITDA ratio for over 20 similar companies with the average coming out at c. 10 times. Now if I put a low value of 8 times EBITDA on HAYT we get £56m to £64m EV ( £7m -£8m EBITDA) Obviously the debt is a moveable feast but with this level of cash generation the debt will come down. If I am using these figures obviously the people trying to negotiate a deal will at least have to take them into account. The AVG holders here seem to have given the above figures little or no thought and appear to be working on the assumption that AVG can get some dream, low ball, deal. |
Posted at 01/5/2017 14:35 by cerrito Catching up here.I agree with PA and others that it seems the AVG bid is sufficiently attractive that it cannot be rejected out of hand by HAYT; reading the Friday 7am RNS my main concern is that management is so tied up with the AVG offer and getting the financing sorted out that not enough focus can be given on the other key issue getting the new COO Dr Elcoate bedded in and winning orders to keep the Luton and Peterborough plants fully occupied ie orders may well be low in H1 17/18 and they will have a plausible excuse. I am a shareholder of AVG and have been in and out over the last 5 years but do not have a good feel of management and have not organized myself to make an AGM. I did run into the Chairman when he chaired AUG-in which I have shares-and he did impress me and seems miles better than HAYT’s Chairman. It is still not clear to me what AVG brings to the party..there is the nuclear overlap but AVG is involved in decommissioning and as far as I can see HAYT in new nuclear. On the basis that AVG need to pay a premium to the current marcap of HAYT, provide some long term capital that I think we all agree that HAYT needs and the transaction costs there will not be any change from £38/£40m Anyway the net result of my musings was to reduce my modest AVG holding(I made the mistake of going into the AVG tender offer).I appreciate that probably no one else on this board would have reached this conclusion. For me HAYT shares are at the moment correctly priced |
Posted at 22/4/2017 11:08 by pavey ark RR obviously you have an agenda that does not include anything like an informed, reasonable and reasoned view of the current situation at HAYT especially your view of the order book and projected revenue.I would have thought that people in your position would simply stick with the debt situation but you seem to have branched out on your own, good for you!! I shouldn't really give out the following information as it's all there in the recent update and every HAYT shareholder should have gone over it repeatedly, in great detail and with a calculator but we all know that doesn't always happen. 1. The order momentum is very strong £25.4m in H1 to £42.9m in H2 (68.9% increase) 2. The company is claiming a very large pipeline on £500m of orders (we will see !) 3. The T/O last year was £63m and even though the bulk of new order were in H2 (late H2) the order book increased by almost 40% to £50m from £36m The bulk of the new order were clearly weighted to this current year yet the income lat year was £63m and order book increased by £14m.(Given the lead lime on these orders I would suggest that very little of the £42m H2 orders are in the £63m revenue....just obtained very expert (but free) advice on this.) The only way the above can be achieved is if the company has a substantial income from their repair and maintenance contracts. As you rightly pointed out some of the current order book is for 2018 and even beyond but equally that would suggest that some of the opening order book last year (£36m)was for this year. I have calculated that the maintenance contracts were worth c. £10m to HAYT last year but some sight guesswork and my figure is conservative. Even I'm getting dizzy here but I think I can sum it up in one sentence. To suggest ANYTHING other than the fact that the £50m order book offers fantastic forward visibility and security to HAYT is nonsense. Time to go back to the debt !! PS: one general point is that the new Centre of Excellence facility has reduced lead time but more importantly has afforded such control that management can spot any gap and the sales team can go out, offer a lower priced deal for an immediate order ,slot it in, and everyone's a winner. I expect this to happen in and around the substantial order book. |
Posted at 21/4/2017 09:56 by pavey ark grahamwales, a merger is possible and in my mind more likely than AVG being able to come up with the cash required to buy HAYT outright.Bit of a mismatch though as HAYT appears to have a long term view where AVG is a more a boost to sell operation. Mergers usually work best where there are obvious synergies and the ability to take out duplicated costs. Although both companies are engineers I don't see much in the way of overlap. I expect that AVG gave some indicative price (for an outright buy)at the start of negotiations but the HAYT statement suggested that this was low. The AVG pitch is obviously based on them taking out costs so it is only natural that the HAYT management should state that THEY can take out costs. With all that has gone on recently and with the record order book I would be surprised (shocked) if the management were not now looking at maximising the opportunities afforded to them with their substantial investment in their Luton plant. Even the most biased former HAYT shareholder (and the evangelical AVG holders)can see that the root cause of HAYT's temporary ills was the poor H1 performance. The reasons given for this performance were given and seemed perfectly reasonable to me: 1.Peter Brotherhood (bought to fill a gap in their product range) came neglected and without a flow of orders 2. The new facility at Luton was to be staffed and commissioned but not producing at a high enough level. In short the costs and overheads were not covered. In H2 things settled down and a H1 £5m loss (EBITDA)was turned round to a H2 £5m profit (EBITDA) For me the most telling part of the recent update was the fact that the order book going into H1 this year was £50m and this was almost 40% up on the same period last year. There is little or no chance of a repeat of last year's H1 losses and my prediction of £80m t/o and £8m EBITDA looks pretty safe. Obviously still the cash to sort out but again if my figures are even close to correct a long term funding arrangement can be put in place or a fund raising rights issue for £6m-£8m which with the cash generated this year would put them in a very strong position. Anyway we will soon see what AVG intend to do. Interesting times. |
Posted at 03/4/2017 14:49 by pavey ark RR good point but without going back over AVG's figures the difference is that HAYT already has a high margin business already set up and the earnings to go with it.AVG on the other hand needs a big deal like this. I held AVG for a short while but it was a bit of a short term no brainier, buy at 184p and sell the lot back to the company for 200p. I was not tempted to hold AVG as it looked that they were a company searching for the next deal but obviously all AVG shareholders are wetting their pants at the prospects of getting an excellent company like HAYT especially as they dream of getting it as cheap as 50p a share. Interesting that these same people were rubbishing HAYT when the price was under 40p. I return again to my (unanswered/ignored? With an EBITDA of £8m realistically achievable next year and their proven ability to turn EBITDA into cash it is obvious that within a year the £2.4m short term debt would be paid off and the remaining debt would fall below their own self imposed 2 times EBITDA limit. I would suggest that this is the reason that their bank is willing to continually roll back the repayment date and why the company are looking well beyond simply dealing with this short term cash flow shortfall. I don't believe that HAYT is in a fundamentally weak position regarding AVG and I suspect that the only reason the talks have gone beyond the initial contact is that something akin to a merger rather than a takeover is on the cards. |
Posted at 03/4/2017 10:03 by rogerrail coincidental synchronisity in the numbers?HAYT Mkt Cap £27m, Debt £18m EV £45m AVG Mkt Cap £45m Cash £27m EV £18m All share merger would seem like a marriage made in heaven for HAYT shareholders 1. Debt written off, no need for placing or rights issue, or costly credit facilities so two fingers at the banks, . 2. HAYT by far the largest operational unit will essentially be the core of the new company 3. New CEO&CFO with a lot more credibility with the city than ELB though on past history of AVG he will no doubt stay on as MD of HAYT 4. Company stays British owned and will have capital to grow. 5. Some synergy with Metalcraft business units which may result in increased revenue for both sides of the business. |
Posted at 31/3/2017 14:12 by garbetklb Hi Jamesd888 - off topic, but there's no way I'd buy EGS. Look at where any profit actually ends up. Not with the owners of the business.....Back to HAYT. We had a fair sized holding spread over several accounts - sold all at 53p/54p. I think HAYT comprise 1 very good business (HT) and 1 potentially good business (PB) - but PB doesn't have any orders...... I was a bit suspicious and insufficiently sceptical when PB was bought - it appeared a very good deal. Shortly after I tried to go to see HAYT, but kept being fobbed off by the PR company - a red(ish) flag. Because the management always seemed to be in Peterborough - another red(ish) flag. I was wondering where the update re the bank debt was - I suspect AVG have timed their bid v well & pitched it low. I'm not sure how much time HAYT have to wait for other bids. And if AVG falls through, I think things could be v grim. So, on balance, I'm happy to take the market offer, swallow the loss, and move on. Who knows if I'm right, or not. Except, maybe, the people who were buying ahead of the RNS....... |
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