Hansard Global Share Discussion Threads

[envirovision] 26/2/2014 15:05

Could see some price action after 4th then, time to top up?

[hugepants] 26/2/2014 14:45

Company update on Tuesday.

From Life Jan 28 2014 BY: Helen Burggraf , Contributing Editor , International Adviser


....In a research note issued yesterday, Panmure Gordon said the fall in Hansard Global's sales had been "greater than we had antcipated", and had lowered its full year 2014 sales target forecast to £122m from £149m, and target price to 130p a share from 162p. However, it maintained its "buy" recommendation on the company's stock, "believing that the shares will be largely under-pinned by the 9% dividend yield", and said it was looking forward to hearing the company explain its "new sales strategy" on 4 March...

[cwa1] 29/1/2014 14:36

Just had a small punt on these at 81p, possibly further to fall before it stabilises but thought it worth a dabble at these levels on them holding the dividend and the company turning the ship around. Obviously a risk given most recent trading news and possibly further to fall given jittery markets as well.

Good fortune to holders.

[paul_butcher1999] 28/1/2014 11:19

Makes sense Hitthetarget, I jst wanted to get a cheap shot in about the EU :)

[hitthetarget] 28/1/2014 08:54

Regarding the new strategy, I think the question is would you buy the whole company at the current price assuming of course you had the money. I think most investors would hesitate unless they were in a similar business themselves and could provide direction. I don't think you would go ahead on the basis the existing management might come up with a successful strategy. I wouldn't as I don't know a lot about the business. So why buy shares in the company is the question I asked myself.

[paul_butcher1999] 28/1/2014 00:48

pulling out of the EU market and focusing on areas that have not committed economic suicide has to be a sensible strategy. Whether the rest of the strategy works is another matter. I'm going to hold on to my(small) holding.

[stemis] 27/1/2014 21:21

Consensus EPS forecast for y/e 2013 is 8.22p. Board confirm results expected to be in line. Nothing to suggest cashflow won't be in line with profit so forecast dividend of 8.36p shouldn't affect cash much. That's a yield of 9.7%.

All eyes now on "We believe there are a number of significant growth opportunities available to the Group which we will be announcing on 4 March 2014 following completion of this review."

[aleman] 27/1/2014 14:04

SteMiS - but I read the underlying cashflow tables of the last two years as being short of what is needed to pay the dividend such that the cash pile is falling. I bought because the company seemed relaxed about it and suggested changes it was making would see things improve and it had a cash buffer to hold the dividend for a while. Things haven't turned around a great deal and last 3 months sales suggest things have deteriorated rather than improved. I think it raises some doubts about directors' credibility as well as about the ability to hold the dividend after the current year. Their old sales model wasn't working so they changed it. I am not saying it's a failure but it doesn't seem to be doing enough to stem the tide to me. I took the previous comments at face value but now I have doubts and I tend not to stick around when I have doubts, hence selling out.

(I do have external reasons that make me take a more critical standpoint. I have taxable gains to offset this year and was looking for something to prune from my portfolio to fund another purchase so today's results put HSD in my firing line.)

It does not mean I'm right. Good luck to those that stay or have joined today.

[pvb] 27/1/2014 13:16

But what happened since 2011? The drop in 2009 was entirely to be expected, but equity prices have been rising the last couple of years. If they can't make money in an equity bull market when can they? A bear market?

[stemis] 27/1/2014 13:12

I've also amended the IFRS numbers marginally to correct some errors I noticed.

[stemis] 27/1/2014 13:12

but we now have an awful final quarter of 2013

I don't think that's true. The new business sales have little immediate impact on the profit and loss. The company only gets the commission on AUM and therefore is more dependent on overall AUM, which at £1bn is somewhat larger than new business of £50m. Even then, new business is an NPV and most of the premiums won't be received for a while. In that respect the increase in single premium flows have more immediate impact than reduction in regular premiums.

Hence the company comment that IFRS results will be in line with expectation.

I've added AUM to the table above and its interesting how stable its been.

[loganair] 27/1/2014 11:03

Took a little punt, bought a few at 82p as the price is down on the news. Hoping most the bad news is now out of the way.

Even if the dividend is cut by 50% will still be yielding around 5%.

[hitthetarget] 27/1/2014 09:40

I looked at this company for the first time last night. It appeared a promising investment. I overlooked the fact they had pulled out of the EU market and were reviewing strategy. With the announcement this morning, I had to ask myself: What was I thinking ?

I thought I had taken on board Warren Buffett's advice to go for companies that are stable and don't need to change or need major surgery. He expressed a similar point when he said that if he thought they needed him he would not have bought the company.

Those thoughts should have made me more wary than I was when I woke up this am thinking of an investment in Hansard.

[aleman] 27/1/2014 09:14

I'm out. I made the underlying cashflow short of the dividend cost last year and was looking for a recovery but we now have an awful final quarter of 2013. I think the dividend will get cut next year without a big rebound in business. It could happen but I can utilise the tax loss this year and have other irons in the fire.

[morwood] 27/1/2014 09:01

Agreed - we see this time and time again.

I am still holding for the moment to see what the long term strategy is going forward.

[paul_butcher1999] 27/1/2014 08:18

Perhaps they thought given the movements in the share price the last few weeks they had to get the results out quickly as people already knew .... Really annoying that this happens so much with shares (both when news coming out will be good or bad many people seem to have a good idea what is going to be said)

[skinny] 27/1/2014 07:44

Yes - the calendar still says the 29th!



Summary
· New business of Hansard International Limited of £55.2m PVNBP in the period is 24.2% below H1 2013. This is primarily as a result of the cessation of a large distribution relationship in the Far East;

· Single premium flows of £10.8m have increased by 13.5% from H1 2013, while regular premium flows of £44.4m have reduced from £63.2m received in H1 2013;

· New business margins on the PVNBP basis have reduced to approximately 7.5% (Q1 2014: 10.0%);

· Following recent settlement agreements, writs totalling approximately £2.5m remain outstanding against Hansard Europe (H1 2013: £11.6m);

· IFRS results are expected to be in line with expectations, despite the litigation settlements.

Gordon Marr, Group Chief Executive Officer, commented:
"We anticipated a reduction in new business flows in Q2 2014 and expect H2 2014 new business to be significantly below an exceptionally strong comparative in H2 2013. We remain confident however that the Group is well positioned in growth markets and is appropriately capitalised to take advantage of distribution opportunities in the latter part of this financial year and in the future. The Group's strong capital position will allow it to pay dividends in line with the guidance previously provided.

As announced, we have been undertaking a thorough review of our new business strategy in order to diversify new business flows and increase the scale of our business. We believe there are a number of significant growth opportunities available to the Group which we will be announcing on 4 March 2014 following completion of this review. "

[soi] 27/1/2014 07:38

Hi Update out now, did think it was the 29th same as other posters

Doesn`t read too well but appears they intend to maintain the divi.

No holding, will watch with a view to buying, see how the market reacts first

hxxp://www.hansard.com/investors/reports-and-presentations/2014.aspx

GL

[paul_butcher1999] 23/1/2014 23:44

Yes sadly the fall in share price seems to indicate that people know bad news is coming. Really annoying that this seems to happen time and time again with shares I follow. May not be that this time of course, but I won't be surprised by bad news on 29th now

[skinny] 22/1/2014 12:00

Update on the 29th -

[wllmherk] 14/1/2014 18:35

picked up a few as well 96p with costs.

wllm

[pvb] 14/1/2014 14:07

Dumped!

Clearly one of my mistakes. As usual, should have left ages ago. At least I feel relieved about it.

[envirovision] 13/1/2014 15:13

Picked up a few at this price and yield seems rude not to.

[p1nkfish] 06/1/2014 20:34

listen to the market and take care.

[pvb] 06/1/2014 14:38

Announcement of second quarter new business results on 29th January.

Doesn't look as though the market is expecting it to be great news...

And there is a very large spread at the moment. About 6%