Haike Chemical Share Discussion Threads

[napoleon 14th] 13/8/2011 12:23

vatking - a very good answer to salmon stuffer's post above, the content of which I quite understand.

Also, Haike have considerable funds set aside for the loan repayments - about 33% of the total consideration - & are not alone in garenteeing the capital element of the loans - associated companies are in that too, I believe.

Furthermore, that P/E of 2 looks absurd, & is based on a performance in a market that is only slightly affected by the ROW's debt dilemna.
That P/E is likely to be revised downwards as well.

If the ROW really get into a recession, the POO will fall further; that can only be good news for Haike.

[vatking] 12/8/2011 16:01

I don't see why the debt is such a problem for so many people, at least it is represented by tangible assets, unlike exploration companies. Because of the annual depreciation on these assets is in real terms positive cash flow, if they breakeven there is positive cash flow of $20million, so if they make a profit of$20 million that's free cash of $40 million available to reduce loans, so we are maybe looking at a repayment period of 5 - 7 years with profits growth. No problem finding refinancing based on these figures. As 50% of the company is owned by employees, I don't believe they would look to convertible bonds, or wish to dilute the capital by issuing further shares.

[rivaldo] 12/8/2011 14:22

Zaksab evidently hasn't read Westhouse's new broker note - 40p EPS this year and more to come.....

[zaksab] 12/8/2011 12:38

Surprised this isnt a penny share.

[rivaldo] 12/8/2011 12:23

Vatking, I disagree strongly - there are, to give just one example, a number of AIM-focused VCTs which could be taking stakes in HAIK of anything from £50k up to £500k. Given the volumes recently, and the lack of PI interest, this sort of stake-building is quite likely imo.

Whomever is buying, I look forward to my two girlfriends :o))

[napoleon 14th] 11/8/2011 21:06

Longer yesterday - nothing to do with girlfriends!

In these times you have to find contrarians...
BPI is another if oil keeps falling.
Kept those too.

[vatking] 11/8/2011 16:33

Rivaldo - serious city deals are in XS of £1 million, there are insufficient shares for institutional buying without pushing the shares up 10 points. Most wealthy individuals with a decent pension fund will do deals of £25k or better, so we don't see any Institutional deals here because of lack of liquidity, and the problem of getting out again.

Forget about who else is buying, use your own judgement, mortgage your girl friend and keep buying.

Next year you will be able to afford two girl friends with all the attendant problems.

[rivaldo] 10/8/2011 19:17

Over 400,000 shares traded today, with a late 60k buy at 84p. This is not PI buying (especially given the lack of posts here) - this is much more serious City money, presumably brought in following Westhouse's coverage.

[rivaldo] 10/8/2011 11:22

The new HW note is certainly worth a read - all sorts of positives.

HW seem to be well informed, coming in with a fairly precise net profit for H1 alone of $7m. If this were merely doubled then HAIK would look cheap enough, but they go for $25m net profit for the year, or around 40p EPS (with a 3.07p divi).

Even allowing for a discount given the borrowings, a P/E of only 5 would still see a 200p share price here in fairly short order.

[old portmuthian] 10/8/2011 10:08

Also good news that margins not being eroded with the oil price fall.

[vatking] 10/8/2011 09:52

BEIJING - China's economy grew at the slowest pace since 2009, but still managed to expand faster than expected in the second quarter. The growth eased fears of a hard landing and strengthened Beijing's resolve to fight persistently high inflation.
China's statistics office said on Wednesday that stabilizing prices remained the top priority, even though a "complex and volatile" global economy posed a threat to growth, complicating the policy choices.
Second-quarter gross domestic product rose 9.5 percent from a year earlier, exceeding economists' forecasts for 9.4 percent growth, helped by solid domestic consumption and investment.

THIS IS A LOT BETTER THAN THE LESS THAN 1PC IN EUROPE AND THE USA AND WHY THE PROSPECTS OF ACHIEVING BROKERS FORECASTS ARE GOOD - SHARE PRICE 150P

[krupatel] 10/8/2011 09:30

nice move back up after recent profit taking, holding up very well especially given the state of the wider market - also relieved not to see them drifting back down to the lows as they've been known to do in the past! The "this time it's different" theory certainly starting to gain some traction ;-)

[horndean eagle] 05/8/2011 11:25

falling oil won't do it any harm. a decent hedge in current markets although it has to be said its driven by retail punters and they aren't in the best frame of mind so could go lower yet.

[aim11] 05/8/2011 11:08

am seriously tempted to have a small punt on this now its pulled back. oil price falling prob help too in h2

[the oak tree] 03/8/2011 18:50

Thanks Krupatel, very interesting.

I wonder what other oil refinery stocks trade on in HK? As if AIM doesn't rerate the shares , assuming they do as we think and produce decent numbers, then perhaps they may move back home?

[krupatel] 01/8/2011 15:20

New 15 page HW note out:


Further huge share price appreciation potential

We are increasingly positive about the company's prospects. The dividend declaration, and likely further payments via a progressive policy, should support the shares, but the main rewards to shareholders will come from what we believe will be further significant capital appreciation. The recent trading update was highly positive. The interims will be reported in mid-September, most likely in Renminbi.

We expect around 40p of earnings this year, which puts the shares on a forward multiple of 2.2x, with a yield of 3% at the present 89p share price. We are raising out target price to 150p and retain our BUY recommendation.

[vatking] 30/7/2011 09:41

For those that are really interested in what the company is achieving rather than market reaction, the benefit of the new contract will be that production of gasoline and diesel at both refineries will be nearly at full capacity. This will change HAIKE's pricing to be supply driven rather than demand, as in the past the company has had to discount price to place product.

It all bodes well, subject to feed stock price fluctuations.

[napoleon 14th] 29/7/2011 21:03

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Can't find a useful lead out of the indicators tho', MACD included.
IMO future performance has more to do with the tiny free float & future demand.
If it reaches 110p, then this will be getting serious.

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[napoleon 14th] 29/7/2011 19:06

Yes, indeed, Riv.
I'd written Haike off but not sold.
Nothing would have made me go longer, tho'...
Roll on next week. I want me murney back!

[rivaldo] 29/7/2011 13:58

Very nice intra-day bounce.

[rivaldo] 29/7/2011 07:24

Interesting trade of 265,000 shares at 90p just reported from yesterday - has to be a buy given the price movement on the day....

[the oak tree] 28/7/2011 22:39

Hi aim11, still up to my ears in WCC but just diversifying a bit here.

[rivaldo] 28/7/2011 13:42

Some really good trades being reported. Apart from the 40k at 94p above, we now have a 120k buy at 92p and another 40k at 93p.

Given the lack of free float here it's easy to see further large rises on any demand at all.