Haike Chemical Share Discussion Threads

[zaksab] 15/5/2012 21:34

53p pessimistic? are you looking at the same cash flow statement and balance sheet that I am?

[burbelly] 15/5/2012 18:02

you got the report or a link please?

[vatking] 15/5/2012 11:28

Good report by the brokers - at least I now understand what they mean by pro-forma and where the MI come from. Target price 53p - a little pessimistic, but it is better to set an attainable price in this market.

Now, who fancies a nice cheap holiday on the Greek Islands? Did Iceland suffer that much, when it went broke? Sarko only got the Germans involved, because the French Banks are over committed, and now he's gone.

[hannahc] 08/5/2012 16:46

Please click on the link below to access our initiation research note on the HaiKe Chemical Group:



Regards,

Equity Development

[hannahc] 08/5/2012 16:46

Please click on the link below to access our initiation research note on the HaiKe Chemical Group:



Regards,

Equity Development

[kaos3] 04/5/2012 16:50

This is a utility regulated china way with profits allocated as seen preferable by bureaucrats IMHO which means regular analysis does not apply. All whims but the technical process

[vatking] 04/5/2012 16:46

It would seem that the minority interests are held in preference shares or something of that nature, the way the profit has been allocated. Last year's split was strange - a loss in the MI company covered by the parent company's profit.
Now we have a profit in the MI company, but a bigger loss in the parent, but if they have increased their stake in the MI company - I don't understand.

What's a pro-forma profit? Unconsolidated, consolidated, provisional?

Anyhow - a rather disappointing result. The refinery made a profit, specialty chemical and salt chemicals made a profit. Where did the losses occur? I think something got lost in translation. we'll have to wait to see if the brokers can tell us what's going on, which wasn't so accurate last time.

Zak, you would think they would have to disclose their list of minority interests, and any MI options or buy back clauses, but nothing! We could all get shafted, so I am glad I have 2000 employees batting on my side.

[zaksab] 04/5/2012 13:00

Dont know why they didnt give the reconciliation between profit and operating cash flow in the results?

[zaksab] 04/5/2012 10:43

They have been buying out more of the minority interests this year; so the leakage will reduce on an on-going basis. good if these are profitable and generate a decent return on the money invested.

[zaksab] 04/5/2012 09:53

For those who dont know the minority interest arises in a situation where a group's subsidiaries are not wholly owned but where ownershp or control is greater than 50%. In this instance the entire subsidiaries results are consolidated in the financial statments with the minority interest reported separately.

The minority interest is the proportion of ownership of the result and the net assets that are not owned by the parent company. It is reported as a single line in the financial statements (p&l = profit attributable to minority; bs = net assets attributable to minority; cashflow = dividends paid to minority).

The minority interest can only be assessed at face value - it cannot be disaggregated because one would need access to all subsidiaries accounts and to find exactly where the minorites lie and thus what their incremental interests would look like.

[zaksab] 04/5/2012 09:53

For those who dont know the minority interest arises in a situation where a group's subsidiaries are not wholly owned but where ownershp or control is greater than 50%. In this instance the entire subsidiaries results are consolidated in the financial statments with the minority interest reported separately.

The minority interest is the proportion of ownership of the result and the net assets that are not owned by the parent company. It is reported as a single line in the financial statements (p&l = profit attributable to minority; bs = net assets attributable to minority; cashflow = dividends paid to minority).

The minority interest can only be assessed at face value - it cannot be disaggregated because one would need access to all subsidiaries accounts and to find exactly where the minorites lie and thus what their incremental interests would look like.

[vatking] 04/5/2012 09:31

Is there anybody out there that actually understands how the minority interest profit is calculated, with the remaining loss to shareholders. Last year the MI took the hit.

Incidentally Zak, if you look at the cost of last years divi, you will see it really made a huge difference to the loan repayments.

However in real terms the NAV of our interests have increased, but more down time at the refineries!

[odvod] 04/5/2012 08:31

Dividend here is a social factor

[velvetide] 04/5/2012 07:45

outlook section is a bit too frightening for a tender soul like me

[zaksab] 02/5/2012 12:03

The PE is a valuation tool, not a trading tool and as a stand alone measure it tells you everything about what the market is assuming but nothing of the context. THe key is to think about the context.

[vatking] 02/5/2012 11:33

Zakzab

What's all this business about talking a share price down? That could sound like misrepresentation. It's just a question of how one interprets the facts, however you are much more likely to make money by doing the opposite of what the experts say, since they are wrong 90% of the time.

I know you feel sorry for me about my silly ideas, but you may have noticed that ABAXIS (Nas:ABAX), which I bought at $2.50 last century was amongst the top ten gainers last week reaching $35 again, and in the coming months should get above $40 in October.

The reason I mention this stock is that it has a PE ratio of 61, whereas HAIK has a PE of about 2, so that as a trading tool PE is absolutely worthless.

I'm really looking forward to the HAIK dividend announcement!!

[pilky3] 01/5/2012 19:00

climb,climb.

[zaksab] 26/4/2012 21:25

Surely you must see why you being short a share one minute and talking it down fanatically and then being long the next and talking it up fanatically can be seen as annoying and irritating?

[hectorp] 25/4/2012 13:47

Taking a short position is a very good thin to do when you are using it to hedge a falling position. For example, you may hold gold , so you may short paper gold if it is in a falling period. I don't particularly run naked shorts on companies. I did short one recently, SHFT - but I have been long SFT most of the time since.

You may find zaksab has an annoying and irritating style: I do. But most of what he says is often right, at least if looking at the very long term: just tortuous to read.

[vatking] 25/4/2012 11:40

You think that Haike has bad debt ratios, you should look at drilling companies, but downside risk also reflects upside potential. Shorting is fun when a share is over-bought. Think of the beauty of that symmetric chart.

[zaksab] 25/4/2012 10:22

No i would never short a share - why an earth would you want too. The whole beauty about equities is the inherent potential for asymmetric returns. Why an earth would you want to reap the inverse of that?

Listen I dont care about Haik and whether it goes up over the next 5 or 10 years or goes down to zero (no point judging things on a day to day basis). All I was doing was fundamentally referring to the risks as I see it and the bizzare capital allocation which serves to accentuate those risks. Fundamentally I find it hard to think of any reason why this business has any genuine quality (no pricing power, capital intensive, loads of debt etc). Thankfully there are many other shares out that can hopefully generate sustainable equity returns over time.

[vatking] 25/4/2012 09:49

Zak

Seems other investors agree with your comments - get a life. Trust you are short!
Just joking.
Why don't you jump aboard, the train is just leaving!

[burbelly] 24/4/2012 17:03

Nice little rise today, 40p tomorrow?

[zaksab] 21/4/2012 15:52

Sorry, how can equity holders, assuming they are not the lenders, prevent an indebted company from going to the wall??

[zaksab] 21/4/2012 15:52

Sorry, how can equity holders, assuming they are not the lenders, prevent an indebted company from going to the wall??