Haike Chemical Share Discussion Threads

[the oak tree] 25/7/2011 19:42

Agree Rivaldo, the performace given the RNS is just down to too many false dawns. PI are very wary. I also agree it doesn't look as if it will go bust and so with that huge sales amount could really post a massive profit compared to its current market cap.

New people in the Mgt team now as well, all very young too (nearly all in their 40s) so am getting a good vibe with it now. Somtimes the ones that bite you, can make alot of money for you in the end , as we aren't the only ones and so the share price goes to an extreme.

I don't think anyone should wait for the results, its make your mind up now I reckon. Once results are out the share price will just move too fast.

The other thing to say is IMHO this is a short/med term trade. One day it will disappoint again. Or untill they free up the oil price to move with the market.

Any big swing in the oil price up and I won't be waiting for the results, I'll be out of here.

[rivaldo] 25/7/2011 12:38

Hi aim11. It's an interesting situation here at present. It seems to me that PIs, who were previously the main driver for HAIK's share price, have (quite naturally) been spooked by HAIK's poor historic performance and flawed strategy and business model.

But HAIK have changed their model and strategy, and have been on an extensive tour of the City to publicise those changes, such that it appears to me that the main drivers of the share price recently have been larger City investors given the repeated and larger than usual trades coming through over recent weeks.

Any investment here is obviously risky. But it seems clear that HAIK won't go bust, whilst it's also clear that the upside, as you say, could be very large indeed and relatively short-term. The latest trading updates, the dividend, and today's RNS reinforce that view. That's why I got back in anyway, and - so far - it's working quite nicely.

[aim11] 25/7/2011 11:49

why the lack of interest still do we think? i'm fully aware of the risks in this one, but even i'm reading these last few releases and thinking hold on, this could be on a p/e of 1x on the basis of the spec chem + a "modest" profit. am surprised its not moved up further. have no position in this as yet

[rivaldo] 25/7/2011 07:25

Interesting RNS this morning - it implies that 100% of Hi-Tech Spring alone now produces £4.2m annualised net profit, and it bodes well for H2 on that basis:



The Exec Chairman's comments are certainly encouraging - "immediately earnings-enhancing" is always to be commended!

"Mr. Xiaohong Yang, Executive Chairman of HaiKe, commented:

"We have made another significant step forward to further develop the specialty chemical business. The acquisition of Hi-Tech Spring is immediately earnings enhancing and will improve synergies in our petrochemical business. This strategic move increases our exposure in certain specialty chemicals commonly used in vital industries such as agriculture and food. Importantly, Hi-Tech Spring will enhance the Group's profitability and ultimately add value to our shareholders.""

[fuming fred] 23/7/2011 17:35

Were £850 in profit for july to date on our dog bets and we have some fun bets lined up tonight from tracks spread the length and breadth of the country.
Gates open @ 830 so pull up a chair pour yourself a drink and watch the winners come charging in. All from the comfort of your own home!!

[napoleon 14th] 23/7/2011 17:34

Smell of burnt fingers here too, M8,
but IMO the situation is prettier than for a long while.
I'd like to see the right eps & ebitda figures to consolidate the next move (up?)

[the oak tree] 22/7/2011 21:26

mmmmm...very interesting. Did get burned on this before but it might be ok for a while. Its that sales figure, which could be about $1b on a relevantly simple busines of refinery. Long term though has huge issues. Look at that chart! Its a heart beat ! But patient might be ok for now and that could be worth getting in.

[napoleon 14th] 22/7/2011 11:10

5 yr chart targets 110p, then 140/150/160p area.

MACD/RSI neutral, volume been very low; a strong buy phase could move this fast.

[old portmuthian] 22/7/2011 11:05

Riv

Has the divi been paid yet.

Edit: Just checked and its in the account - very pleasant surprise.

[napoleon 14th] 22/7/2011 11:04

HAIK & IDG - two very different stories for me.
HAIK might be getting into one of its' high phases & seems more "cute" about its' market(s).
Specialty chem is a good route imo.

If these eps & P/E figs are half accurate, these are cheapo cheapo.
Close to a 2 yr B/O.

[rivaldo] 22/7/2011 10:37

Nice to receive HAIK's divi too recently....

HAIK are 4th highest riser today now - with this and IDG I've got two out of the top five risers :o))

[old portmuthian] 22/7/2011 10:00

If they can produce US$8 million profit, net of all costs and interest charges, for the whole year I would be more than happy.

There definitely is a 'feel good factor' coming from the company lately.

[rivaldo] 22/7/2011 09:59

It's amusing to think that this £25m m/cap company has had at least £600m of sales in H1 alone (based on £290m last year). That's an annualised £1.2 billion!

As you say vatking, what's a "modest" profit for a company this size?

Presumably Westhouse Securities will update today. They were previously forecasting 23.8p EPS this year based on £15.8m PBT.

[vatking] 22/7/2011 09:12

Trading statement

So what's a modest profit? - my guess US$6-8 million or EPS of $0.30 to $0.40, looking for annual EPS close to $1.00. PE=1.0.

[vatking] 18/7/2011 08:36

I don't know if anyone else noticed this press release 26th June: -

"Hi-tech Ruilin Methanol-to-hydrogen Project into Production

Hi-tech Ruilin 3000Nm3/h methanol-to-hydrogen project was completed and put into production a few days ago. With an investment of RMB 12.02 million, this project is mainly used to provide hydrogen for Hi-tech Ruilin 1 million tons/year oil refining unit, which has the advantages such as less investment, shorter construction period, flexible startup and shutdown, compared with currently used remote electrochemical company hydrogen production, hydrogen production by reforming, hydrogen production with net gas. After putting into production, this project can meet the demand for hydrogen of oil refining unit and bring Ruilin company the benefit about RMB 10 million per year to optimize the product structure of Hi-tech Group, improve the overall benefits, enhance risk resistance capacity and become another growth point of the Group."

That's an extra US$1.5M if my conversion is correct

I asked the company's PR company to release an RNS when the refinery is fully back in operation (as do Valero, BP etc), but they were too lazy to respond. What's the point of all the top brass coming over to the UK, when they are let down by the people here in the UK?

[napoleon 14th] 04/7/2011 12:26

Is this breaking out of that short term downtrend?

[the oak tree] 27/5/2011 13:00

Its been on my watch list for some time, but am afriad I've missed the boat I feel with this one. Its certaintly volitle so will wait and see if it comes down. It won't be moving in any straight line looking at history.

Realise its got huge debt but for £22m, with this company sales it could make that in profit. Long term though a huge risk as the company doesn't, so far, determine its sales price, so it will always surprise on the plus and negative.

[napoleon 14th] 27/5/2011 12:01

Has to get thru' that 75p level if it's to progress further.
That calls for a lot more buying...but volumes have been relatively low compared to those three spikes in 2010.

[the big fella] 27/5/2011 12:01

I looked at the chart and it had 70p resistance all over it. I bought in the low 40's so happy with that. This would never be a long term hold for me, but have momentum traded it a few times with reasonable success. It will remain on my watchlist.

[napoleon 14th] 27/5/2011 11:10

I'm hanging on; it could just get me most of my money back!
Glad I didn't give up!

If that $26m profit & P/E of 2 does happen, then a P/E of 10 = c. 120p.
One lives in hope!

[the big fella] 27/5/2011 10:16

I used this mornings opening spike to exit. over 50% return in a couple of weeks is my kind of trade. GLA.

[velvetide] 27/5/2011 09:03

are they here to market the existing shares...or new shares in some sort of debt to equity swap? (I am wondering from my swivel chair)

[horndean eagle] 27/5/2011 08:30

BMD cohorts behind today's buying. Just a question of how much more they have left in the tank. Story isn't widely known even now so perhaps there is more to go.