Gulf Marine Services Share Discussion Threads

[hpcg] 10/10/2016 14:00

che7win - I really don't disagree, hence why I'm keeping a firm eye on this. However I have several other oil services positions which are rising, and none of which had a big director sell. If there are fivers lying on the ground why climb up a tree for one stuck in the branches?

[che7win] 10/10/2016 13:36

Brent up another 76 cents, can only help here.Those broker notes will have to upgrade prospects here as oil recovers.

[che7win] 10/10/2016 12:34

Hpcg, Covenants are 2.8 EBITDA, I've listened to their presentation again this morning, they also implied enquiries are starting to pick up.I'm happy to hold here.

[hpcg] 05/10/2016 23:30

seangwhite - I agree. There is a lot of choice in oil services. IMO Picks for now should be solid survivors because the business rebound is not instantaneous. Why risk a company where covenants might be an issue? Still watching, and somewhat hoping this doesn't move!

[seangwhite] 05/10/2016 17:59

The CEO selling a fair % of his shares at 50p does not exactly inspire confidence.

[che7win] 05/10/2016 16:21

Wakey, wakey, oil rocketing.

[hpcg] 23/9/2016 13:14

che7win. I'd taken profits before the director sell was announced. I find it disconcerting in a micro sense. On the other hand I agree that this should do well in any upturn in offshore activity. Unlike the drillers and support vessel owners the technical equipment does not have whole fleets ready to come back to the market. Watching for now.

[hpcg] 09/9/2016 13:20

I can't disagree with you twistednik - here, and elsewhere in services, looks like early money looking forward to a recovery.

[twistednik] 09/9/2016 13:05

continues to move up steadily on no further news :) Lots of strong buys mopping up any weakness at the mo. Feels like an institution or bigger buyer purchasing a stake.

Will be interesting to see if we test the 58-60p mark that we were at 3 months ago. Certainly seems to have reached the bottom (famous last words!).

[cyfran101] 04/9/2016 17:12

Sunday Times believes the 21.4% increase over the week was due to HSBC note.

Can't see a broker view therefore anyone know what it said (apart from being positive)?

[bmw30csl] 01/9/2016 14:25

I think these tread water at best now until the next update on contracts. The leverage worsens markedly in H2 and even though this should be obvious i always find the news of such things drives sellers! I like this share but hate the way they have such a concentrated customer in ADNOC.

[hpcg] 01/9/2016 13:15

Short term I am a little nervous of what usually happens to oil in September. So holding for now but watching carefully.

[wad collector] 01/9/2016 12:37

The divi is not massive , but the cover is. Holding but not adding.

[ironstorm] 01/9/2016 11:32

I have decided to top-up here and tripled my holding today.

Based on the projected end of year numbers, the headroom in terms of their lending and the quality of management they offer the largest potential of shares I am looking at.

Not without risks but I have also sold out my only oiler and are using these as a proxy on the oil price too.

Contemplating a purchase in my trading account too - just need to think about short term trajectory first.

[flyingbull] 31/8/2016 10:05

August was a good month for the oil price. The challage is on for September!
Fancy a challenge? Which oil stocks do you think will gain or which will lose?

[richtea1701] 31/8/2016 09:47

Always been impressed with the management

[tintin82] 31/8/2016 08:28

Quite impressed. Very solid, management certainly seem to have a firm grip on the situation. Hopefully a bit of upward traction from here.

[bikwik] 31/8/2016 08:27

Despite the impairment charge, which wasn't that much in the scheme of things and is non-cash anyway, I thought the figures were excellent.

Take out the $14.6m and gross margins were 60.8%, actually slightly higher than the prior 6 months (59.2%). Even with £14.6m margins were still 48.1%, not bad for challenging market conditions. The debt is obviously high but they are servicing that easily with such high margins and have kept the dividend the same.

Clearly the oil price is the key, and personally I think that bottomed earlier this year at $26 and is forming a base pattern on the chart. Its gotta get through $52 (neckline of a reverse H & S). That gives a target of $78. First key resistance though sits around $62. Its currently consolidating the recent rise, so will have to wait some while before it can attack $52. I would have thought we'll see the upside breakout before GMS ends the current year on 31 Dec.

So, if it does (oil) break out before, then sentiment to oil stocks will ramp up aggressively and GMS on a P/E of 4 (47p and EPS of 11.4p (av of co est of 14.5 to 15.5c at $1.31 exch rate) has to be one of the bargains.

Just my thoughts. Has to be a buy on corrections.

[hpcg] 31/8/2016 08:07

Well no covenant danger this FY. I don't really like the dividend when times are tight. Interesting about the decommissioning work as this should be counter cyclical.

[imranawan] 31/8/2016 07:34

H1 results looked ok, but one assumes H2 performance will be poor compared to H1 eg. EBITDA in H1 $70m and full year guidance of £100m-$110m and similar metrics with regards to EPS and debt forecast. Clearly they are facing significant headwinds.

I guess the non-cash impairment charge raises the question whether there will be any write down's of other PPE on the balance sheet in the future. They initimated it wouldn't but they could.

[jamiemp] 31/8/2016 07:18

Results fine for me today. Look on track and in line with previous guidance.


Not sure what to make of the non-cash impairment which has a material impact on profits.

[bigdazzler] 30/8/2016 11:54

BIKWIK, exactly. The momentum is good here but with results due it would have become a gamble on the news especially as sitting on nice profits.

The market has presented a nice return so my decision was made. I could be looking at a chart experiencing another move up after release of results with a hint of jealousy but that's trading.

Yes will be studying the results and the movement of price afterwards for expected long term recovery.