Seafox have got another approx 51m shares to distribute which is roughly £9.2m worth, at current prices. Looks like shares are being absorbed, so not the worse overhang.
Also - 53.4 million warrants potentially giving right to 83 million shares remain to be exercised up to June 30, 2025.
And from Aug. 2024 positive statement on institutions - "GMS continues to monitor the positive changes to its shareholders register. We welcome our new investors and are pleased to see institutions showing increasing interest, higher than we've been seeing in a while." |
hpcg any interest over 3% is declarable via a TR1. So whilst you might be right it isn't significant yet. I feel that investors are waking up to the upside prospects. |
 9% of the float has traded since 15 Jan.
Another high volume day on Friday comparable with 28 and 29 Jan.
With the exception of 31 Jan, high volume days have seen the price go up.
I probably don't need to tell anyone, but there is accumulation going on and it goes far beyond those coming from Seafox shareholder hands, with some uncertainty about what might have been forward sold.
Analysing the period last year of relative consistent trading above 20p 2024-03-11 to 2024-06-27 14.4% of the float was traded, of which a quarter was higher than 21.66p. About 12% of float has been traded above 18.61p is the recent past. In other words over head supply is tangible but probably not so significant.
In the main Seafox selling period the 2nd 6 months of 2024, 40% of the float changed hands, just over 50% of that, so 20%, at prices below 16.2p. So the amount available for profit taking is somewhat greater but I don't think should kick in in a big way until circa 22p. 50% in under a year is a market beating return any time.
IMO a rational, defensible, price to have closed the year was 28p, and the company is adding meaningfully to EV every month. The shares are still an excellent buy with much upside.
* all proportions are based off the fully diluted share count * |
https://tipranks.onelink.me/WJho/eomcjine |
Seafox are distributing in specie against their will. It is really difficult to say what proportion I made available by individuals thereafter. I guestimate between 1/3 and 2/3 and a subset again are sellers at any seemingly any price, though I suppose any price above 15p is more precise.
There is some suggestion in the price action that some prior sellers are now retaining what they now receive. 1% of the float is approximately 10 million shares, with a tad under 5 million traded today according to ADVFN. Receipt of shares and day of selling probably aren't much related - a seller could have their broker sell long before the receive them if they wished. Price action suggests 1 of 2 things. Either there is competition for any shares made available, or the keenest sellers are out already and will be making good on the next distribution. The buyer or buyers might well know that. Indeed the odds are that happened on 22nd and 23rd Jan I would say.
The above normal volume and modest rise today does suggest some more availability at 18p or so; about 500k shares were worked out at 14:35 for the 18p and 18.05p low of the day. In other words whatever shares a Seafox shareholder puts on the market are being snapped up and really just merging into the rest of the trading activity. |
Go on seafox do your best and this can get moving higher eventually |
Seafox offloading again |
 Yeah there is some serious demand on the bid here at 18p.
A 5k order can be a whopper, let alone these 100k and 150k blocks on the book today. The market has just tried to sell through 18p, taking out the 100k block and 50k block on the bid.
The bid has just reloaded with a 150k order and a 100k order.
There was a 100k iceberg on the offer at 18.1p that has been eaten through as well as 100k at 18.05p.
We now have those blocks of 100k and 150k on the bid at 18p holding support versus a persistent 100k seller who was sat at 18.15p on the offer.
This is a fascinating ding-dong.
Ordinarily, GMS goes romping through 20p on demand like this. Clearly still some sellers to clear who aren't patient and some stale Bulls.
The encouraging thing is that this was at 15p and now there are buyers in size at 18.
And this all in spite of a continued overhang.
If they let up...they could easily get 20p imo...the market could easily sit there, considering the way they are coming in for shares here.
But at least the sellers are being given a contest here.
How about some whoppers to clear em out and allow a price release higher?
All imo
DYOR |
Pleasant progressive accumulation all day today as you say Sphere. From a chart perspective the pull back and support at circa 17p will have informed watchers that it is long odds of picking any up at 15p even if Seafox should be forced by its shareholders to distribute its entire holding.
I guestimate that in total availability from that be about 2-4% of float, or £3.8m - £7.6mn worth at 18p. Even at the lowish volume of 3-5th Feb that is just 18-35 trading days. In reality we can see that when those shares are made available volume increases as those shares rapidly move into longer term hands. I would imagine Seafox make strong representation to their shareholders of the importance of retaining a significant stake. |
A little book build on the bid here just now with decent orders at 17.7-17.8p.
Another go at 18p about to come?
15:02 UPDATE:
Bid-offer is 17.95p-18.05p.
That book build is a buyer in size, who has popped up to bid at 18p - can lob a load there.
Can't buy anything meaningful at 18.05p
Noteworthy.
Surely the sellers don't sell on that? Surely?
15:07 UPDATE
There...see...
100k bid at 18p and now 150k bid at 18p
Irregular for GMS
All imo
DYOR |
I completely understand the warrants. If as you suggest the outstanding warrant holders are all so keen to sell as soon as they get hold of the shares why are they waiting? They can convert today, they could have converted yesterday. They could have converted every yesterday since a couple of days after the warrants were issued. As you rightly say they could take their profits now, yesterday, 3 months ago, a year ago, whenever, yet they have chosen thus far not to. Crazy. Unless of course they intend to keep the converted shares, in which case converting at the last minute keeps the payment for the shares earning interest.
Of course we could get a conversion notice for some or all of the outstanding today, tomorrow or any day up to the deadline. I would not at all be surprised if there had been forward selling, and there could be more forward selling.
Your fear that the shares will be converted at the half year and be immediately offered to be sold irrespective of the share price at the time does not bear up to any scrutiny or evidence. The warrants will be converted, I'm pretty sure on that, so anyone doing their own calculations must sensibly be using the fully diluted share count.
I suspect those holding out to June to pick up shares at some perceived liquidity release will be in for a rude awakening. |
"""""34.2 million warrants were exercised, and 53.5 million shares were issued accordingly during the first 9 months of the year at the price of 5.75p per share. 53.4 million warrants potentially giving right to 83 million shares remain to be exercised up to June 30, 2025""""" This is separate to the Seafox distribution |
I don't think you understand. You're confusing warrants with distribution |
Nice to be up today on a tough market day |
Yet the share has closed above 17p on many days since the warrants were issued and only some have been cashed in. Indeed you are asking the wrong person as I don't hold any warrants. Ask yourself, or even better, an actual warrant holder, why they aren't taking their profits now in a click?I understand the fears, but the evidence isn't there. My shares are for sale at a price, so are everyone's. That is 100% of issued shares could be offered at any time. |
I said that's my biggest worry. Simple.If you had a bunch of warrants now you could buy for 5.75p and have an instant realisation of 17p you wouldn't take it? 200% gain in a click? |
mikeh30 - Tell me why warrants will convert at the last possible date and then immediately try to sell? They would be morons. Almost certainly the remainder have been traded, possibly several times, to a medium term holder. Otherwise they would have been converted just like the tranche in the summer. Any to be sold, i.e. to cover the cost of conversion, will be forward sold in the market.
The huge advantage to a long termer buying the warrants is they could take a big holding without disturbing the price of the shares.
I'll say this again because it bears emphasis - anyone intending to sell converted shares in the market at a price below 15p has had a whole literal year to do just that, take their profits and move on. They haven't, so they won't. They've either been short sold or will be held. |
Point being 15p seemed to be the floor for the Seafox distribution selling.What will the floor be for the 5.75p warrants |
My biggest worry is this churn comes to an end and they unleash 83 million shares from warrants at 5.75p |
111m shares traded in January, which is well over 10% of the fully diluted share count, and even more as a proportion of the shares currently in issue.
When I histogram over 1/3 of that volume is between 15.2 and 15.57p. The first decile is also popular, and the second moderately so. Thus 60% of the January volume was around the 15p mark. Interestingly above that is the bins zigzag showing clear signs of FOMO as price steps up including 8% above 18p. There is clearly significant demand / buying willingness at 16.5p and above.
This is pretty similar to October; 47% at the near identical bottom 3 deciles for example. Above that there is also step changes in volume.
Conclusions:
1. There is significant turnover in the book, by definition enough for sellers.
2. The Seafox distributee sellers are pretty amateur, or their brokers are.
3. Anyone wanting to sell warrants at these levels could be doing it now. Or they could have sold higher at plenty of times in the past. Because those owning the outstanding warrants haven't done that it would be perverse for them to do so come June.
4. When supply dries up there is plenty of demand to take prices higher.
5. Demand is ever more eager to step in as the Seafox distribution reaches its end.
6. There is a lot of trading going on outside of those selling their Seafox distribution. |
Seems someone already has the bin bag out! |
I wonder when the wet and dry hoover will arrive and take all those weak holders tears in to its tank?! |
Tbh I hope we get 15 again. Be great to add there |
being smashed again - I guess 15p on the cards |
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