Gulf Marine Services Share Discussion Threads

[gswredland] 02/1/2025 18:15

Agree hpcg
Patient here too

[hpcg] 02/1/2025 13:39

I do not want there to be buy backs (or dividends) until all the warrants have converted or expired. The warrant prospectus, available on the website, explains that warrant holders are kept whole by either of those distribution methods. I do accept that a share bought back at 16p made whole, is better than a share bought back at 18p, but as buybacks would raise the share price that outcome in pence per share diverges. This is but a 6 month wait, and I am patient :).

[wigwammer] 02/1/2025 10:05

I don't find it tedious. I find it wonderful. I wouldn't be able to buy at this level otherwise

[xxx] 01/1/2025 14:37

It depresses the price, but not the value.
The company should start to hoover them up and slow down debt repayment imv. The debt is cheap, the forward rev profile and therefore earnings are solid.

[cardinal3] 01/1/2025 13:37

The relentless in specie transfers by Seafox to their shareholders and presumably subsequent sell down my them is tedious.

[gen_romer] 31/12/2024 15:10

Some debt deal this is that takes more than 5 months to 'finalize' after agreeing on the initial terms....

[xxx] 30/12/2024 22:17

Bearing in mind the current stock price and the ebitda earnings, the company is on a strong traectory.
The shares are lowly valued at ~x 4 ebitda: ev. why?

The overhang of shares and warrants detailed in various annoucements.
The company has a stated intention of reducing gearing to x1.5 nett leverage ratio before considering what to do with the funds.

Consider this. New boats will not earn 25% pa and the future of the lift boat segment is unclear, so new/2ndhand vessels should be off the table.


At this rating and with ~3 years of revenue assured it seems only sensible to reduce the share count. The management are scared by the last cycle and want to contiue to delever as a priority.

For shareholders, slowing down repayments on the the ~8.5% loan and using those funds to buyback and cancel stock would add very significant value to the equity.

If you can see the logic, write to Mansour and express you view. Though conservative, both he and Alex are persuadable.

[jsg123] 30/12/2024 13:19

This is from email with Mansour before Xmas.
Yes we do expect the Refi will be concluded by year end or soon after. We are closing few items to complete the docs.

[bloomberg2] 30/12/2024 12:20

Hopefully not too long to wait then !!

[tourist2020] 30/12/2024 11:21

They indicated a few months back that the new banking facilities were commercially agreed and would be finalised before year end.

Not long left now, and in my view its a bit careless to leave it hanging like this.

[bloomberg2] 30/12/2024 09:07

Blue zone formation developing

[bloomberg2] 24/12/2024 12:52

Nice close

[bloomberg2] 23/12/2024 10:31

Be nice to get a divi and see 30p next year ! Leasing new rigs seems a better option than taking on huge debt again !

[gen_romer] 23/12/2024 09:11

bbg2 - When they released 1H results,management did state they would update 2025 guidance towards the end of the year.So this disclosure is simply that

On equity issuance,buying new vessels at the expense of dividends is debatable.Should they opt to buy vessels,there is enough internal equity/cash generation and debt capacity to invest $75-100m

[bloomberg2] 23/12/2024 08:53

https://www.research-tree.com/media/audio-note-gulf-marine-services-guidance-upgrade-23-12-2024/id/23294

[owenski] 22/12/2024 09:58

Thanks for that carcosa

[carcosa] 22/12/2024 09:31

For any relatively newly interested investors, the phrase "in specie" indicates that the dividend will be paid in the form of assets (in this case, GMS shares) rather than cash. An in specie dividend allows Seafox ( a competitor to GMS) to pass on its GMS shares directly to its shareholders without selling them for cash first.

This action reduces Seafox's direct ownership in GMS by the distributed amount.
Seafox's shareholders will become direct shareholders in GMS to the extent of the distribution. Many of these new shareholders will prefer to sell their holdings. Hence the depressed share price.

Background: Following a period of shareholder acronymous activism, commencing in 2019, Seafox became the Company's largest shareholder. These changes led to the financial restructuring of the Company.

In September 2024 Seafox started to exit their holdings, not by selling shares but effectively giving the shares to Seafox shareholders (the in-specie dividend).

At it's height Seafox had 29.3% shareholding in GMS. Now that is closer to 5% to be confirmed with a TR1 this week, perhaps. At this rate it will not be too long before Seafox has divested all of its shares however it may take a few months before the individual shareholders have finished selling the bulk of their holdings.

As Premium Beeks says in the prior post, for those taking a medium to long term view the coming weeks may be a good time for retail investors to acumulate shares in GMS

[premium beeks] 21/12/2024 14:03

Unfortunately it's a patience game. If you hold, ride it out and await the expected hockey stick share price once selling abates. If you don't hold, I agree it's probably worth waiting it out.It's not a bad spot to be picking up shares though, for anyone wanting to take a longer term position. I doubt anyone will regret buying under 20p come this time next year.

[blusteradjuster] 21/12/2024 12:36

Definitely some buying interest at 15p.

[bloomberg2] 21/12/2024 12:04

Yeh have to agree! Not for orphans and old biddies

[owenski] 21/12/2024 11:19

It's a dividend to Seafox holders, odds are they'll continue to sell. Share price here likely to remain under pressure for some time yet.

[bloomberg2] 21/12/2024 11:01

news:The company now anticipates its 2024 adjusted EBITDA guidance to be at the upper end of previous guidance of USD 98-100 million for 2024.For 2025, GMS expects adjusted EBITDA to reach USD 100-108 million, an increase from the previously forecasted 2025 EBITDA guidance of USD 92-100 million.However, doing the maths, a 1-2% guidance increase for FY24 and an 8% increase for FY25 at the mid-point of the ranges. This is hardly material enough for a separate RNS, and it seems unlikely their broker would have forced them to issue this update. This gives the impression that management are desperate to stop their share price from falling. It may simply be options exercise driving the behaviour, although you have to wonder if they may have other reasons. For example, wanting to start growing the fleet again, which may require equity issuance.

[gswredland] 21/12/2024 10:09

Interesting to hear Paul Scott's view on this on vox markets 31.10 in
Never heard him so bullish on a stock

[spwh100] 20/12/2024 09:52

Just look at the downward spiral of the share price and constant dumping of the shares. You're welcome