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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gulf Marine Services Plc | GMS | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.15 | -0.83% | 18.00 | 08:08:03 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18.00 | 18.00 | 18.00 | 18.15 |
| Industry Sector |
|---|
| AEROSPACE & DEFENCE |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 10/2/2025 09:56 by hpcg It's difficult to believe the Panmure note was out today. Net debt / EBITDA should reach 1.5x about the half year. There is setting up for a beat and there is losing any sense of precision. Still, one presumes their target price applies to that condition, which is all good. I would like to see a combination of buy backs and dividend, weighted depending on the prevailing share price, and mindful that dividend investors hate dividend cuts and like dividend increases. Ideally quarterly dividends too as there is no seasonality to the cash flow. Much as I prefer buy-backs I acknowledge that a dividend attracts a whole new cohort of investors. |
Posted at 10/2/2025 08:17 by rivaldo New 15 page Buy note out today from Panmure Liberum with a 30p target price.They summarise as follows: "Since 2021, the primary focus for GMS has been around deleveraging. This has now largely been accomplished due to favourable markets with the net debt projected to be US$160m (net debt/EBITDA ratio of 1.5x) by December 2025 - it was US$406m and 8.1x in 2020. Accordingly, the narrative has evolved such that GMS, having regained the trust of the banks can consider payment of a dividend, share buybacks or possible expansion in the fleet by way of buying or leasing further vessels. In effect, its recovery story has moved on which has yet to be fully realised in the share price. We maintain our BUY recommendation and target price of 30p. Demand outstrips supply for vessels – FCF yield of over 20% GMS is benefitting from a favourable macro-backdrop of improving demand for its vessels both in the Gulf region and the North Sea coupled with a tight supply of vessels. This has led to a potent combination of increased backlog, day-rates, utilisation and cashflow. We see this positive scenario playing out for, at least, the next three years given the lead time in supplying new vessels and the upbeat outlook for Oil &Gas and Offshore Wind Projects. Capital allocation – what happens now? The priority in 2025 remains deleveraging but options are materialising: 1) pay a dividend 2) engage in share buy-backs, or 3) expand the fleet by buying or leasing another vessel. All three options are feasible and to highlight how attractive a dividend payout of 25% would be – it would imply a dividend yield of c.5% which would be 3.8x covered and cost only US$11m in cash terms in 2026." |
Posted at 07/1/2025 18:38 by mirabeau Thanks to Pauly Pilot - a great site, joinPaul’s Section: Gulf Marine Services (GMS) - Paul holds 15.4p (pre-market) £164m - Debt Refinance Completed - Paul - GREEN Gulf Marine Services (GMS), a leading provider of self-propelled, self-elevating support vessels for the offshore energy sector… There wasn’t really any doubt over this, but it reassures me that the refinancing is now completed - “...is pleased to announce that it successfully completed the refinance of its debt, on December 30th 2024, as detailed in the Company's previous announcement on August 1st, 2024. Alex Aclimandos, GMS Chief Financial Officer, commented: "As described earlier, we are very happy to have secured this deal as it lowers our costs of borrowing and gives us more flexibility on capital allocation, reflecting the trust of the lenders." Mansour Al Alami, GMS Executive Chairman, added: "This new deal will allow us to proceed with our deleveraging plans and to continue to move value from lenders to shareholders." Paul’s opinion - that last sentence sums up the investment case. As each month goes by, GMS is paying down its debt from prodigious cashflows, so all shareholders need to do is wait, and the company’s finances get stronger. This has not been fully reflected in the share price yet, because there’s a seemingly endless flow of selling from the Seafox overhang. Other bearish points might be that the low oil price could see M.Eastern demand reduce perhaps? Although the order book currently gives very good visibility. I like the fact that GMS has diversified into offshore wind, where its vessels could be redeployed for only modest conversion cost (mgt told me on a call last year). One ship is already in Europe doing that. Last year saw a series of encouraging trading updates, and broker upgrades. Some forecast data seems to show reducing forecasts, this looks like a data anomaly to me, as I’ve been following the detailed updates from Zeus (many thanks) available on Research Tree, and these have not been falling. It’s not always clear what other data goes into consensus numbers, and they can be unreliable for smaller caps if some out-of-date forecasts get jumbled up in the calculations. Hopefully the new bank facilities should allow GMS to start paying divis. I think that’s important, and I would prefer some income from this share, and not hopefully management buying more ships and running up more debt, as this stuff can be horribly cyclical. The last 9 months share price moves have been frustrating for shareholders, but zoom out and the bigger picture remains very positive - |
Posted at 22/12/2024 09:31 by carcosa For any relatively newly interested investors, the phrase "in specie" indicates that the dividend will be paid in the form of assets (in this case, GMS shares) rather than cash. An in specie dividend allows Seafox ( a competitor to GMS) to pass on its GMS shares directly to its shareholders without selling them for cash first.This action reduces Seafox's direct ownership in GMS by the distributed amount. Seafox's shareholders will become direct shareholders in GMS to the extent of the distribution. Many of these new shareholders will prefer to sell their holdings. Hence the depressed share price. Background: Following a period of shareholder acronymous activism, commencing in 2019, Seafox became the Company's largest shareholder. These changes led to the financial restructuring of the Company. In September 2024 Seafox started to exit their holdings, not by selling shares but effectively giving the shares to Seafox shareholders (the in-specie dividend). At it's height Seafox had 29.3% shareholding in GMS. Now that is closer to 5% to be confirmed with a TR1 this week, perhaps. At this rate it will not be too long before Seafox has divested all of its shares however it may take a few months before the individual shareholders have finished selling the bulk of their holdings. As Premium Beeks says in the prior post, for those taking a medium to long term view the coming weeks may be a good time for retail investors to acumulate shares in GMS |
Posted at 19/12/2024 10:25 by blusteradjuster Assuming it's a simple 9.69% - 5.4% then the latest in specie dividend would take Seafox down to 4.29%.September 4th: (i) distribute 150 million of the shares that it owns in the Company pro-rata in the form of an in specie dividend to Seafox's shareholders, which include prominent family offices, such distribution to take place on or after the 15th of September 2024; and (ii) retain (directly and through its subsidiaries) the remaining 103,686,385 shares in GMS (representing a 9.69% equity interest in the Company). Whilst acknowledging that circumstances can change, Seafox has confirmed that it has no current intention to make further disposals in the short-term, given the positive outlook for the Company. |
Posted at 17/12/2024 12:09 by hpcg its flows / supply demand for the share. Fortunately the company will be able to fix that itself come Q3.Tangentially I think theree might be a few burning fingers in a similar space that could mean money leaving oil services in the very broadest sense. Very much on my watch list are the tankers, specifically products, but also crude carriers. Scorpio (STNG) has almost halved off its highs, back to where it was in July 23, International Seaways (INSW) which carries products and crude is similar, DHT, much flatter and more range bound as it was never as leveraged. These are not the same, ahem boat, by any means. Rates have declined and so have profit forecasts (not so for GMS) and a few months ago brokers were all strong sellers (not so for GMS), though they have rebounded recently to buys or strong buys. The sector runs modest gearing now, and pays out large covered dividends. They are all on my watch list and I'm just waiting just waiting for a break in momentum and for forecasts to stabilise. |
Posted at 17/12/2024 12:02 by rivaldo Bought in here this morning for the first time after the shares dipped. Looks like the overhang is lifting now?Panmure Liberum have reiterated their Buy and 30p target price. They summarise: "Upgraded guidance for 2024 & 2025 GMS has issued revised Adj. EBITDA guidance for 2024 with it trading at the upper end of the previous guidance range of US$98m-100m and has increased its guidance for 2025 from US$92m-100m to US$100m–108m. Against this background the shares have declined 13% over the last month, yet 1) the last disclosed backlog stands at a record level of US$503m (in February it was US$373m), 2) deleveraging has accelerated in 2024, 3) new banking facilities enable options to expand the fleet and engage in share buybacks, 4) GMS has raised the potential of paying a dividend, and 5) new opportunities have emerged in European waters for Offshore Wind Farm maintenance. We re-iterate our BUY recommendation and target price of 30p. GMS continues to deliver The company continues to perform well with revenue growth boosted by higher day rates. The significant reduction in net debt has materially reduced borrowing costs (US$31m in 2023 falling to an expected US$13m in 2026) and the recent re-finance gives the company scope to look at ways to expand the fleet (i.e. leasing). Demand for SESVs continues to be strong as evidenced by the rise in the company backlog which represents c3x FY25E revenues and indicates that the company’s financial performance looks secure in the coming years. Vessel demand remains strong Oil & Gas activity levels in the core MENA region remain high (GMS has no exposure to the UK economy), despite crude prices faltering as demand concerns continue to weigh on markets. We see the recent postponement of OPEC+ production increases having no negative impact on GMS given the high level of backlog with their vessels being utilised for (already) committed work programmes. In the event that OPEC+ does increase production, we see this as a positive with the increased activity driving demand higher." |
Posted at 25/10/2024 13:25 by zho Panmure have raised their TP from 26p to 30p following a visit to GMS Endeavour.(The GMS website shows a picture of Endeavour installing (?) a wind turbine. It's currently moored at Larne, Northern Ireland. ) Text from note copied from LSE: With offshore wind sector capacity set to more than double by 2030, we see increased demand for GMS vessels in this sector. This offers an implicit counter cyclical hedge to the traditional oil & gas sector, and we see this as offering greater opportunities in the future for GMS The European wind sector is growing exponentially, with commissioned capacity forecast to reach 98GW by 2030 – well above the current commissioned capacity of 35GW. The UK has the greatest commissioned capacity in Europe at present (at 14.7GW), with a further 6.3GW currently under construction.....the growth across the wind sector will present huge opportunities to companies involved in any aspect of the sector. Consequently, it is clear that the demand for vessels to support the installation and maintenance of offshore windfarms is set to remain very strong in the coming years, with availability of vessels – such as GMS E-class vessels - likely to be a limiting factor. We believe that this latent demand increase will deliver higher day rates for vessels operating in Europe. Putting this into context, GMS Endeavour is averaging around five days per maintenance cycle per turbine (i.e. c60 turbines each year). With more than 2000 turbines already in place across the UK and Europe, it is clear that there is vast potential for long term maintenance contracts. ....the renewables market offers material growth upside for GMS. This is due to the sheer amount of demand that will come from new installations and by extension, maintenance required across the European offshore wind sector. We see this as offering greater scope for GMS to secure further contracts with major windfarm operators Target price raised from 26p to 30p |
Posted at 30/9/2024 14:40 by hpcg Jsg123 - Seafox, a private company, talked to its shareholders about how best to distribute its share holding in GMS. Presumably some said, we'd like in-specie as we don't want any more given away at 17p. Others presumably said, we'd like in-specie because we want to convert some or all to cash. Whichever, the owners of Seafox, in majority, decided they wanted most of the GMS holding distributed with a rump held so that Seafox has influnece over GMS and no one does anything stupid like build new vessels. thebd11 would know a lot more so thank you for some more information.So far as I am aware the company does not need to ask permission from lenders to buy back shares now even. It shouldn't do until the leverage ratio is below 2 and interest is minimised. I think it does still require permission to pay a dividend, but will not once the new financing agreement has been executed. Its my opinion here, but I think companies should always distribute large shareholdings to their shareholders. It always reduces the overhang if a few want to exit. |
Posted at 01/8/2024 10:24 by someuwin Panmure LiberumNew US$300m banking arrangements and a dividend policy GMS has announced revised US$300m banking arrangements with three banks resulting in reduced interest rates of 250bp +EIBOR, (down from 300bp +SOFR) which will fall to 225bp +EIBOR when the net leverage falls to 2x. The facility also removes ‘most’ restrictions on dividends and share buybacks with GMS confirming it will pay 20%-30% of annual Adj. net profit to shareholders. We have assumed it will pay a dividend on the full year results of 2025 of 0.9p, implying a dividend yield of over 5%. We re-iterate our BUY recommendation and target price of 28p as the favourable macro-outlook and improved visibility sees GMS heading into 2H 2024 and beyond in its strongest position for years. ... The target price is based on the ‘net realisable value’ which we have defined as the net book value of the fleet less net debt, divided by the fully diluted number of shares. Using our assumptions for the net book value of the fleet at December 2024 which benefited from an impairment reversal of US$33m in 2023 (another indicator of the improved outlook for the sector) and our estimate of net debt at December 2024, it implies a value of 28p representing upside of c70%. As a sense check to justify the new target price, the resulting price-to-book ratio would still be only 1.0x illustrating that GMS still offers significant upside. |
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