Greggs Share Discussion Threads

[cockneyrebel] 06/10/2015 09:15

Cheers philanderer.

CR

[philanderer] 06/10/2015 09:10

Canaccord upgrading to 'buy'

[allstar4eva] 06/10/2015 09:01

Shorters closing here?

[lauders] 06/10/2015 08:06

Yes CR. Many thanks for highlighting these again and again months ago. I finally got the message and believed you after some further research on my own :-)

[cockneyrebel] 06/10/2015 07:17

Came good again Lauders :-)

CR

[lauders] 06/10/2015 07:11

Outlook

Market conditions remain favourable with low cost pressures and a stronger consumer environment. We expect this to continue through to the end of the year after which increases to wage rates will drive greater inflationary pressure. Our standard rate for hourly-paid shop staff is already above the National Minimum Wage and we will maintain a competitive position in the market going forward.

Our sales performance is slightly ahead of our previous plan and, whilst comparatives will stiffen further in the fourth quarter, sales will benefit from additional shop openings. As a result we expect to deliver good growth for the year, slightly ahead of our previous expectations, and further progress against our strategic plan.

Slighlty ahead is fine by me for now. Hope the reaction is favourable today but you can never tell. Back up towards the highs I hope.

[lauders] 04/10/2015 11:46

Well this new broker note from the end of August (21st?) obviously had an effect:

RELATED QUOTES Symbol Price Change GGGSF 20.30 0.00 LONDON (ShareCast) - Broker Berenberg has begun coverage of Greggs (Other OTC: GGGSF - news) with a 'sell' recommendation on the fast food chain's shares as the market appears to be ignoring several potential risks ahead. Greggs's recent strategy to focus on its core food-on-the-go market and improve the supply chain has been met with initial success, helping the company pick itself up after struggles in the face of new market entrants and the rapid expansion of other rivals. The strategic overhaul launched in 2013 has provided some initial success, with total sales up 5.5% in 2014 and own shop like-for-like sales up 4.5% - the strongest like-for-like growth since the recession. This contributed to a 40% increase in pre-exceptional operating profits in 2014 to £58.1m. For 2015, management believes market conditions remain favourable: costs are well under control, it should achieve net shop growth of 20-30 sites and, despite being mindful of the strong sales comparatives in 2014, it remains optimistic on the year. But with the stock responding well to the improvement in business performance, analysts at the German bank believe risks still remain in the recovery story that are not being captured in the share price, which is now up 90% since July 2014. The stock trades at 19.8 times forecast 2015 earnings versus UK food service peers on 21.9 times earnings. Berenberg's UK food retail team say potential risks lie in the competitive nature of a market growing at circa 2-6% per year and driven by both like-for-like growth in existing sites and continued roll-outs of new sites from a plethora of competitors such as coffee shops, supermarket convenience stores, specialists and fast food operators. Like-for-like comparisons are expected to become tougher through 2015, demanding more from the existing product offering. Then, while the plan to refurbish stores and exit poorly performing ones has seen initial success, the analysts believe the net store additions will be limited in the coming years and will not contribute materially to top-line growth. Finally, it is likely to be hard for the company to replicate the type of margin growth seen between 2013 and 2014 when EBIT margins rose 1.8% to 7.2%. "While management is seeing continued ingredient and packaging cost deflation and an improvement in efficiencies which will contribute to EBIT margin progression in the coming years, we believe much of this is already priced in." "With new competition entering the market and management anticipating the need for 1-2% like-for-like growth for the margins to standstill we see limited scope for future margin progression." Berenberg initiates with a price target of 820p.

Hope Berenberg are wrong and the Scotsman is right! Only a day or so to find out!

[lauders] 04/10/2015 10:18

Thanks for that CR! Perhaps holding for the update will actually work out to be the correct option for once ;-)

[lauders] 04/10/2015 08:36

Will be interesting to see how things go tomorrow. After reaching a high it has been descending virtually ever since give those on the other thread something to "crow" about. I cannot see why, given the positive stance in the interims (see below) and special dividend payment, things would change for the worse, but there you go. I have sometimes regretted holding on the day updates or results are given and wish I had sold the day before. Wishing holders here a happy Tuesday!

A STRONG FIRST HALF

Financial highlights
· Total sales up 6.4% to £398m (2014: £374m*)
· Own shop like-for-like sales up 5.9% (2014: 3.2%)
· Prior year restructuring benefits contributed £2.4m year-on-year
· Pre-tax profit £25.6m (2014: £16.9m excluding exceptional items)
· Diluted earnings per share 19.5p (2014: 12.5p)
· Continued strong cash generation
· Ordinary interim dividend per share of 7.4p (2014: 6.0p)
· Special dividend of 20.0p paid on 17 July 2015

Operational highlights
· Continued growth in average transaction value and customer visits
· Good results from sales initiatives:
- extension of "Balanced Choice" range
- further growth in breakfast sales
· Shop refurbishment programme progressing well:
- 118 refits and 12 café conversions completed
· Return to net shop growth (44 new shops opened, 30 closures)
· 1,664 shops trading at 4 July 2015
· Further efficiencies from change programme

* restated to reflect inclusion of recharged franchisee costs (see note 2)

"We have had a strong first half with good growth in sales reflecting improvements in our products and the reaction to our shop investment programme. Our offer of great tasting food-on-the-go is being well received by the consumer in market conditions that have remained favorable. In particular we have seen significant growth in breakfast sales as well as from the extension of our "Balanced Choice" range of sandwiches and flatbreads with fewer than 400 calories.

"With the shop refurbishment programme continuing to progress well and new additions to the product range including pizza slices, we are confident of delivering a year of good growth SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF OUR PREVIOUS EXPECTATIONS."

My edit to the statement above to just make the important last part of the sentence stand out ;-)

[fenboy2] 02/10/2015 14:09

Why's that Mikey?

[dlku] 02/10/2015 11:48

not looking good this one

[dlku] 02/10/2015 10:09

Timberr!! Profit warning beckons

[dlku] 01/10/2015 17:43

downa gain nasty

[onjohn] 29/9/2015 16:12

new recent low for this kaka

[cockneyrebel] 29/9/2015 09:26

Being bought up off that support line again this am:


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[cockneyrebel] 25/9/2015 17:12

Send me a tenner and I'll send you a signed photograph.

XX

CR

[cockneyrebel] 25/9/2015 17:12

Why don't you get yourself a nice big picture of me on your bedroom wall? You follow me around so much you must be infatuated you nutta.

I unrequited love imo - your filtered and will never be unfiltered but just to give you a treat here's a couple of big wet kisses for you XX

[mike740] 25/9/2015 15:02

Why did you think it was you I was taking action over, no sorry to dissapoint you. Just got back.

Anyway, lets bury the hatchet, lifes too short for silly squabbles, online handshake ?

[fenboy2] 25/9/2015 13:20

I thought you were meeting your Solicitor (School teacher) Mike???