Future Share Discussion Threads

[outsourcer] 25/11/2008 16:07

blimey, this is bad

[bletherer] 25/11/2008 12:45

outsourcer - who knows? There was a good rally after results a year ago, after a sustained share price fall in the run up. One welcome improvement on the previous regime is that share price moves in the run-up to statements can no longer be assumed to be the result of leaks. They are just guesses by market participants, and have several times turned out to be wrong.

[outsourcer] 25/11/2008 11:14

huff - at a take over price around 37p a share - so i could break even

I am guessing good news is not on the horizon

[outsourcer] 25/11/2008 09:44

altube, please stop now, nothing you have ever said has been true

[altube] 24/11/2008 22:17

I will say this only once buy b4 wednesday

[altube] 08/11/2008 10:35

still ripe for a takeover of MBO in the short term

[seletvv] 07/11/2008 14:58

HnP: Hmm. I was working in the market at exactly the same time, for Nintendo and a number of magazine companies. My recollection is not the same as yours whatsoever! I expect we're talking about slightly different things - value and volume - while the fact that games (at 3 to 4 x the price) will outstrip two relatively dying formats (versus downloads) doesn't surprise me.

Future's internet side is dire, it won't soak up the advertising because they simply aren't in the same league as their peers. They missed the boat there, imho.

I'm not entirely convinced by the hobby argument but do agree, it doesn't mean much upside for this right now. Will continue to watch with interest.

[huffnpuff] 07/11/2008 14:19

SelettVV - I'd have to disagree about the early 90s boom. I was working in the videogames industry back then and this was the time of the Megadrive, Amiga and SNES, and there was a HUGE boom all the way through the early 90s. There wasn't a low base - these machines shifted millions of units and tens of millions of games. While the recession hit, the industry was insulated from the worst of it and mag sales shot up. Admittedly, we didn't have the internet back then, but Future have gamesradar.com and cvg to soak up the ad spend now in that area.

Just this week, it's been projected that games sales this year will eclipse both DVD and CD sales - combined! The current gen of machines have a good year-and-a-half of healthy sales in them yet, even more if Sony/Microsoft/Nintendo hold off from announcing new models for a while. Videogaming is a hobby and a passion, it encompasses an ever-growing age group as older gamers are just as passionate as teenagers now, one reason the average age of a gamer is estimated to be 29/30. When times are hard, people cut back on going out, eating in restaurants etc, but a hobby has a hold on you that isn't easy to break. It's also a bit of a golden age for gaming with the last couple of years proving to be rich in new IP.

Still can't see any upside for this share though.

[seletvv] 07/11/2008 08:03

HuffnPuff: Video games were at a relatively low base back then; there was a sembleance of growth, but not the sort that you saw following the 93/94 period, with Sega and Nintendo, and then Sony, growing like hell. Consoles didn't shift in mass quantities during the very early 90s, and only the GameBoy carried itself through. I really wouldn't call it a boom, though: 1, it was driven by new product and 2, as I say, the low base and relative inexpensive new product helped give the impression of growth.

This time, it's going to hurt. Games are far more expensive than they were back then (even relatively), and it's not quite the "must-have" product it once was with the current popular products not about to give way to new ones. Game sales, like any luxury, will most certainly be impacted - with _some_ protection offered by the fact that many games purchasers remain teenagers who spend all their shop-job money on the things. But I think it would be naive of us to believe you're going to see any growth in video game sales. Equally, there will be an even bigger impact on £5 magazines which tell you about the games you can no longer afford..!

Other than that, thoroughly agreed. We're doomed. Until 2012, that is.

[jotoha1] 06/11/2008 18:56

Ingham has no need to take this on, he did very well out of previous share options...£ 5m to buy some smart property in Bath was very nice of you shareholders !!!

[seletvv] 04/11/2008 20:06

I agree to a point, though I dont think PlayStation (or video games in general) magazines are "highly targeted" - circulations will suffer in any downturn since every £5 or so will matter, and games/consoles will sell less.

They missed such a big trick with the internet (look at the phenomenal growth of things like Eurogamer and, of course, WoW), and selling their baby titles (like Junior) off would be called into question now (one thing you dont necessarily see less of in downturns is babies!).

Ingham and Anderson are hardly white knights. They'll only take it for a price that shareholders would deem acceptable - and that, right now, looks like most any price, so hardly upside for our poor £15k loser, for example.

[altube] 04/11/2008 18:58

You need to understand the sectors they operate within highly targetted,people never give up their passions. I am presuming they are in a close period before results. As far as I can tell figures will be as stated, and I would imagine forward outlokk will be challenging.

I heard a rumour that Greg Ingham and Chris Anderson were going to take it private.

AL

[seletvv] 04/11/2008 08:22

The sentiment on AIM is pretty horrendous. Look at the other diverse media companies - like YOU(Gov), TMN, DIGI, RNOW etc - all down by similar levels in that time.

Alternatively, you could suggest that there's a correction coming for FUTR... unless there's some knowledge in the market leading to this share price.

I didn't mean to sound overly harsh, but I don't see the point in banging on about losses. Just sell - blind faith that a share is going to come back when it's this turbulent, while complaining, is utterly hopeless. Alternatively, buy more and average down!

[psteer2] 03/11/2008 22:39

Hmmm - a little harsh there! If I lost £15K I'd want a damn good whine - and maybe this is the place for it! But, of course you're right - only invest what you can afford to lose...

I'm confused by the pretty impressive drop - so April to August it was 'stable' around 26p say, and it is now half that - on low volume and no news? Is that not fishy ?
And you can't say it's 'market sentiment' - comparing the All-share index for the last 6 months :

[psteer2] 30/10/2008 10:55

So... today you can buy these for a little over 15p - around a third of the peak value this time last year. Non-exec director Michael Penington bought 100K shares in the summer at about 25p (a paper loss of about £10K on those trades)(if he can't judge it right with these credentials : then who can !?)
I'm tempted to throw money in now - but will this drift even lower in the 4 weeks up to the results ?

I currently have a small holding of these at about 35p :-(

Not sure that the last 4 major shareholder RNS's were increases ? ShareCrazy has Templton dumping 7million and Franklin Resources dropping 23million ? But certainly Schroder added >3 million

[outsourcer] 30/10/2008 10:33

the last 4 RNS's re holdings in the company all appear to be increases in stake by the institutions, so why does the share price keep falling

[outsourcer] 27/10/2008 21:54

I am predicting that you will be incorrect once again Altube just like all your predictions have been.

[altube] 27/10/2008 17:18

I am predicting a MBO to be announced by the end of the year.

[outsourcer] 21/10/2008 16:19

Cool, see you in Cloud Cuckoo Land, I will be easy to spot as I will arrive aboard a flying pig.

[altube] 21/10/2008 15:18

see you on the 25th at 30p