Exillon Energy Share Discussion Threads

[the stinger] 18/12/2013 07:08

Back to £1.50 or lower then me thinks..doubt the BOD view will stand for long as they'll be voted out.

[maxp4] 18/12/2013 07:05

All deals off in latest RNS from BOD. Back to square one and the £1.30s. Lets hope production targets can be achieved.

[pro_s2009] 18/12/2013 00:35

I posted a media link some time back which said that Arip's shares were going to get "washed" prior to a new owner buying 100% control.

This means that they must pass from Arip to another party, and then the other party to someone new.

So far they have only gone from Arip to Seneal - so they must be sold to another party. This negates the chance of Seneal being the one to make the bid, as has turned out to be.

The question now is who will Seneal sell to ? Will it be Sinclare ? or will it be Gazprom ? or another party lurking in the background ?

The one that Seneal sells too will likely be the bidding party - so just a case of waiting now for the next big chunk move of stock.



As far as I see it the Russians do not trust each other - which is possibly why a "3rd party" is used to hold a big blocking stake - whilst the Arip stake is getting washed - eg Sinclare hold it to block Seneal whilst Seneal holds the "to be washed" lump.

Seneal will now sell, at a price higher than the 377p they paid, to the actual bidder and get paid for their efforts of buying and selling by the profit on the stock, at which point also Sinclare will sell the "blocking" stake to the actual bidder at a price higher than the 363p they paid for it, to cover the price of the stock, the interest and give them a profit - likely why the Sinclare holding was purchased at 363p, slightly lower price to cover for interest payment when its resold at a profit.

The other way it could run is the Seneal will sell their stake to Sinclare now and Sinclare launch a formal bid - the Arip stake has been purchased and sold and so no direct link with him anymore - once Sinclare have control they sell it back to Seneal (or to Gazprom).

Sinclare have to pay Gazprom in 108 days from 11th Dec - so that is the timeline to follow - end of March 2014 - but I will be watching for who Seneal now sell to - thats the next big key move of stock and completes the washing of Arip.

[salpara111] 18/12/2013 00:17

been following this story for a while now and have to say that I am lost as to what is going on.
Why in heavens name would someone pay up to 377p a share to acquire a very large minority stake and then not offer for the rest of the company, I am sure that every other investor would have signed on the dotted line for 377p so that leaves us all wondering what in heavens name their game is.
JKX have been having similar troubles but in their case there appears to be two large minority shareholders trying to act as a concert party.
If there is a big plunge here tomorrow I might be tempted to take a few but it would have to be below 150p to get me interested given how long I might have to hold before getting a result.

[technocat] 17/12/2013 23:04

I think its a given that unless something dramatic happens tomorrow the shares will crash. What interests me is what happens if Sinclare are unable to pay Gazprombank the £111M by the due date for the shares. I assume the shares then stay with the seller (Gazprombank) - I wonder if Sinclare are entitled to their initial payment of £45M back in those circumstances.

If the original sale does not happen what will happen to the shares held by Gazprombank? will they hold them as an interest in EXI or will they sell them on to another buyer, and at what price?

If Sinclare pay up and keep the shares they are in more do-dar than me, I only hold a small stake originally purchased at £1-50

Still confused

[nigelpm] 17/12/2013 22:40

Sad that I've been pretty well spot on here.

[the stinger] 17/12/2013 21:50

maxp4 - fair quote.. yep tomorrow should be interesting. Waiting to see an BOD update RNS and if not then it wont be nice for the share price as it tells a big story.. i.e. a big con. If the BOD dont know who/why/what at this stage of proceedings then its end of show.

[maxp4] 17/12/2013 21:42

the stinger,
nice quote below

If you owe the bank $100 that's your problem. If you owe the bank $100 million, that's the bank's problem.

J. Paul Getty

Lets see what tomorrow brings all very exciting.

[the stinger] 17/12/2013 21:31

griff - the way things have been lately yes,,,, it all smells a bit too much now and would not be surprised to see some sort of investigation.

[griff2711] 17/12/2013 21:27

Or could the real bidders already have circa 60% under their control and are about to get a whole lot more in the stampede.

[the stinger] 17/12/2013 21:26

maxp4 - Gazprombank wont be bothered one bit,,,,its Klyachin who should/will be poo'ing himself...lets see what his initial £150m or so investment is worth in the morning. If he cant pay they'll just take his assets..Cant believe how the BOD and the LSE rules have allowed these sort of share transactions to happen.

[maxp4] 17/12/2013 21:22

the stinger, agree on all your comments i hope the board release a statement sharpish. The current two Russian share holders have to wait 12 months to make a bid under £3.77. and £3.63. The £3.63 buyer bought shares from gazprombank on credit. balance due around march. Gazprombank wont be to pleased if this crashes to far.

[the stinger] 17/12/2013 21:10

maxp4, need to hear from the BOD now, if they don't have a backup of some sort then the games up as they'll be voted out/ off the board next AGM or before anyway. The way things have turned out It seems they'll deserve it.

Nearly 60% of votes out of their control and thats to start.. No way now a +£3 offer more like £2 if that..looks like the ST was right last sunday advising folk to get/sell out.

[maxp4] 17/12/2013 20:49

Yes Klyachin and ultimately Hawtin could bid using a Gazprom loan but seems hugely unlikely now

Source " Interfax "suggests that Klyachin can act in the interests of the developer Alexey Hawtin

In 2012, Hawtin thinking about expanding their business. In December 2012 they bought 100% of the oil company "Dulisma", and three months later tried to buy the company "Samara-Nafta".

"I see that they are actively interested in the oil and strategically configured to go into this industry. I think they will grow," - said "Vedomosti" business acquaintance. Hawtin also associated with a person at the end of 2012 purchased a small bank "Ugra".

[cashandcard] 17/12/2013 20:48

All you guys were warned, when it comes to the majority of small/midcaps dealing in Russia, the game is to shaft the average joe PI. Even folks like Pro know when the game is over, see he has gone quiet with his lofty predictions for a takeover.

Cash

[the stinger] 17/12/2013 20:24

Looks like Klyachin has to stump up GBP111,202,387.10 pretty soon!! and thats after forking out £45m as a down payment for his 26%....reckon he's took a bet on that seneal might pay more than his £3.63 for em....well shafted if he wrong!! his £156m bet may be only worth £50-£60m tomorrow...lol

Forward Sale Agreement dated 11 December
2013 between Nagelfar Trade & Invest
Limited, a subsidiary of Gazprombank (OJSC) (as seller) and Sinclare
Holdings Limited (as purchaser) for the
purchase of 43,115,588 USD 0.0000125
ordinary shares at a price of GBP3.631891 per share payable within
108 calendar days of 11 December 2013
(with completion to occur no later
than 5 business days thereafter). Initial payment of GBP45,388,729.50
payable within 1 business day of 11 December
2013 with balance of GBP111,202,387.10
payable within 108 calendar days of 11 December 2013.


The forward sale agreement includes an agreement by Nagelfar Trade &
Invest Limited to procure that Gazprombank (OJSC) does not transfer
the shares to any person other than the seller or the purchaser before
completion, without the prior written consent of the purchaser.

[maxp4] 17/12/2013 20:18

Only hope now left is that Klyachin puts forward a genunie £4+ bid that Khotina will accept. Or could Lukoil, rusneft, or gazprom bid? Very unlikely to happen though. I think We've been had.

[the stinger] 17/12/2013 19:48

What did the BOD just recently recommend (twice)... 'We urge shareholders to take no action' Lol.

It seems (repeat seems) that the BOD may have judged this all wrongly and now lost control of the coy.. who was it advising them Goldman?...

Cant see EXI trading above £1.40 in the morning and poss a buy at those levels for a cheap £2 take over.. well done BOD.

[maxp4] 17/12/2013 18:27

Look what happened to ENRC similar larger majority share holders got it on the cheap.

[lonrho] 17/12/2013 18:19

That assumes the institutions will sell to them on the cheap, there are laws for uk companies to protect minority holders and they will not have enough shares to cancel the listing. As Stemis says there could be further twists and turns but tomorrow will not be pretty but will possibly be a medium term opportunity for the brave.

[horndean eagle] 17/12/2013 18:19

All this talk of prices of 300p+ is nonsense. Seems as though only one outside independent shareholder actually got cash out of all this pass the parcel activity. Worldview got circa 270p for their lot. Im guessing GIC probably knew the game was up by approaching the parties with a view to buying their stake and being told not interested. Hence why they were keen to trash the price in the last few days.

[maxp4] 17/12/2013 18:11

The thing is they want the assets for the lowest price possible who wouldn't. It's worth over £4 and everyone knows it. But all these guys have to do is wait 12 months to pick up the remaining shares on the cheap. There will be no further successful bids because these guys will just reject them all

[stemis] 17/12/2013 18:07

The reality is no one 'knows' what's going on so those who 'know' this is a stitch up are just speculating. What we do know is that 60% of the shares have recently been bought at over 350p. Holders of the shares must believe they are worth at least that and will want to get value for them. No doubt the price will fall tomorrow but the ultimate outcome to this is as yet still to play out. I suspect there'll be further twists to this before it finally concludes.

[loglorry1] 17/12/2013 18:06

Question is should we bail and just take the loss on the chin? If Sinclair and Seneal working together I'm not sure there is much value left in what we hold.

[maxp4] 17/12/2013 18:03

They will now do everything they can to trash the share price and put in a low ball bid in 12 months and take control. That's what I would do. Board will also be replaced at next agm by their own men. It stinks but legal just