|Continuing upwards. Really should be well over 200p.|
|Interview: New Exillon Energy chief sees robust future for Russian independent sector
London (Platts)--24 Nov 2016 852 am EST/1352 GMT
* Financial stress to lead to M&A 'wave'
* Downplays OPEC-led output cuts
The head of Russia's Exillon Energy, Dmitry Margelov, has predicted a secure future for the country's independent upstream sector, but says a surge of merger and acquisition activity could be on the cards in the next two to three years.
In an interview, Margelov, who became chief executive of the London-listed company in March, said he saw little threat to the independent sector from the centralizing tendencies seen in Russia's oil industry in recent years. He also played down the significance of any effort by Moscow to curb oil output in collaboration with OPEC, saying the burden of such a move would probably fall on large companies.
"I think our government is interested in having independent producers," Margelov said. "For now I don't see any political risks for our company." "Yes, there is a process of centralization, but from my point of view this pretty strange and unpredictable situation with Bashneft is not a sign that now all assets will go to Rosneft," he said, referring to state-controlled Rosneft's recent acquisition of Bashneft, a deal that led to bribery charges against a government minister.
As a company, "we are in a very strong position and we have every chance to develop our production and sometime maybe in future to acquire new assets," he added.
Exillon is currently producing around 15,000 b/d of light, low-sulfur oil, most of it from the Kayumovskoe and Lumutinskoe fields in West Siberia, plus some in the Timan Pechora basin in Russia's far north. It plans a new drilling program in the first half of next year aimed at reviving its declining output.
The reboot of the company follows a change of ownership in 2013 in which property investors Alexei Khotin and Alexander Klyachin took the place of Kazakh businessman Maksat Arip as its largest shareholders.
Margelov said Exillon had slashed its drilling expenditure at the time of the oil price downturn in 2014, but had now accumulated $100 million of cash, enabling it to take advantage of much-reduced prices in the supply chain and associated rig availability.
This is likely to mean horizontal drilling, but from existing wells. Exillon's core West Siberian fields benefit from a tax exemption applicable to challenging geologies, but its estimated lifting costs last year were just $3.3/b and it benefits from easy access to transport infrastructure.
The company has avoided entering long-term sales contracts, preferring to be flexible on how it sells its oil, which has an API gravity of around 41 and sulfur content of just 2.2% for the west Siberian fields. The majority of its revenue was from domestic sales last year and it has estimated oil reserves of 500 million barrels.
In terms of costs, Margelov said the tendency of larger companies to carry out more drilling in-house and reduce their use of service companies was a boon for upstream independents. "Prices for drilling services in Russia are now really low. There are a lot of companies that have their drill rigs standing with no bidders -- they're very flexible, both on pricing and in terms of payment."
Concerning Russia's offers to join OPEC in curbing output, a suggestion balked at by some large producers, Margelov said he was confident Exillon and others like it would be unaffected, not least due to questions of implementation.
"I don't think someone would ever want to freeze the production of a small and independent producer like Exillon -- they don't have any mechanism to do this. I don't think [the government] would like to change taxation right now because people are worried about this," he said.
The government "would take measures that would apply to governmental companies like Gazprom Neft, Rosneft, because it's easier."
As for the Russian upstream market, Margelov said asset holders currently tended to have an inflated view of the value of their assets, but were likely to modify this as financial stresses on the sector increase. If past cycles are anything to go by, some upstream assets may end up in the hands of banks, which would then want to offload them, he added.
"There are some assets that are intended to be sold, but their owners still believe the oil price is around $100/b and expect too much. It takes time for asset owners to understand what the fair price is. Now we will see that some companies will not be able to pay their debts to commercial banks and maybe in some years we will see that some banks got some nice assets just as security... Then of course they would like to sell them," Margelov said.
"In two or three years we will see a wave of interesting M&A transactions in Russia."
--Nick Coleman, [email protected]l.com
--Edited by Alisdair Bowles, [email protected]obal.com|
|Could we take the 130p level out today ? I have bought a few more.|
|Slight increase in both average and peak production last month... must have been doing some workovers or a new well?|
Thanks for your response. I agree that a low-ball offer could come at any time. This is one of the very few junior oil companies that hasn't moved on yesterday's rise in crude prices. But at the same time there are obvious risks with investing here, and the spread is big.
Here in an interesting post from the EXI discussion board on Stockopedia:
"I have followed EXI for several years, even by Russian standards EXI is dirt cheap, regardless of which valuation metric you use. I can see two reasons the share price is so low, first despite having plenty of cash and 500m+ barrels of 2P reserves production has been dropping. I attended the AGM this year and questioned the chairman about it, the response was that since the oil price appeared to have stabilized EXI would increase drilling activity to ramp up production, so far nothing has happened on that front. The second reason is there are two large Russian shareholders, one owns just under 30% and the other owns 26.7%, no one knows if they are working together to control the company or not.|
|Galeforce, Welcome, these are points I've been scratching my head about, the stock doesn't get marked down on these production reports but it is worrying. It does seem like "jobs for the boys " with EXI as the last board were ousted 2-3 years ago but as far as I can see nothing at all has changed, if anything, things have got worse. I feel a low ball bid offer could be made at anytime. I've recently reduced from 25000 shares to just 5000, something just doesn't add up here. The corporate governance side of things worries me too. Good luck if you decide to invest.|
|Exillon looks very cheap, and I'm tempted to buy here. The enterprise value at this share price (120p) is only £107m.
But can anyone explain why production is falling here? The decline looks quite rapid.
That's -2245 bpd in 6 months
P1 reserves here are over 150m barrels. So presumably there is no shortage of oil. But has the company just stopped spending money on its existing wells until the oil price recovers? If spending on these wells or on new heels resumes, will the production tend reverse?|
|Not too much longer until this is a debt free cash cow (albeit even now debt is well below cash in the bank levels).
As the oil price rises I think this will be an in demand stock, even though its Russian........... one wonders whether the bidding war which fizzled out last time might happen again some time soon.|
|A bit perky today to get back on the rising trend - almost back to my buy price!|
|Definitely feels like upward momentum in the share price is building. Something must be going on in the background IMO. Wonder if there is corporate activity looming again?|
|Or not, production isn't helping.|
|Breaking out by the looks of it.|
|As you say must be the russian effect wilk1 but it does look out of skew with your no's there.
Chart above looks to have broken out of the flag though so watching for the anticipated move up to the 120p area myself then see where it goes from there.|
|Anyone care to hazard a guess about the company's direction going forward. Is it just going to be a cash cow. Current valuation is way,way way out of kilter with anything I've ever seen ( the Russian influence ) We have mkt cap of £168m £65m In cash increasing all the time and an approx eps figure of 20p this year. Time to back the van up ? Comments/ replies, greatly appreciated.|
|Scary non reaction to those results.|
the old header (now at post 3380) indicates the reserves at the end of 2013 as 196 MMbbl P1, 520 P2.
At c. 15-20kb/day this represents a production of around 5.5-7.3 MMbbl per year, so P1 now perhaps around 180, unless they've upgraded any of their P2/P3 since 2013.|
|July production shows a 3.3% decline of average flow from June & 2.5% decline of peak flows, which is a little higher than from May-june.
Anyone know when the next well is due on stream?|
|any one know the 1P reserve for EXI?
2015 AR says it's mentioned in 2014 AR, but i cannot find the 2014 AR in it's website, the " more reports & results" link does not work properly.
many thanks in advance.|
|Infact, since the new team were assembled OVER 2 years ago production has actually decreased by 3000 bopd. Is there any evidence of them achieving anything or is it just jobs for the boys to get a cheap takeout price. Thoughts anyone ??|
|Since the last board members were ousted what's actually changed here ? There was a big song and a dance about the company moving forward but as far as I can see nothing's changed. I've a large long position.|
|We should be getting the July production figures in the next day or 2 - perhaps it was a bad month...|
|Our aggressive buyer seems to have disappeared ??|
|Just need a couple of buys on the order book and it will bounce.|