Eros Share Discussion Threads

[eurofox] 11/11/2015 19:52

$8 handle breached

[eurofox] 11/11/2015 19:00

capitulation can't be far away - an $8 handle beckons - looks like a lot of stupid margin betting going on here with stops easily taken out

[soul limbo] 11/11/2015 17:48

cwa

they've responded



$EROS: My Final response to Financialfactfinder

This is our last time responding to financialfactfinder and its recent post at Financialfactfinder is mixing up the facts, so we would like to set the record straight.

We have never commented on the current quarter revenues. In fact, Eros International Plc (NYSE: EROS) (“Eros”) has not reported its second quarter results, so we have not been able to analyze the numbers yet. It is an entirely different question as to how financialfactfinder knows that current quarter revenues came in at $67 million before the company has reported. Nonetheless, these second quarter results will include Bajrangi Bhaijaan and Welcome Back. The results from Tanu Weds Manu Returns should be included in its first quarter results for the fiscal year 2016.

Eros International PLC Quarter 1: April 1st – June 30th
Tanu Weds Manu Returns was released on May 22, 2015 (Source and

Eros International PLC Quarter 2: July 1st – September 30th
Bajrangi Bhaijaan was released on July 17, 2015 (Source and

Welcome Back was released on September 4, 2015 (Source and

Yes, this whole “hullaballoo” is centered on the two most recent fiscal years. If in fact our analysis is correct, the company’s ability to survive would be nil because, by definition, the company will have committed fraud. It will not matter if Eros happened upon a few blockbuster movies. We also find it quite interesting that every single movie that financialfactfinder mentions are movies that we have accounted for.

Next, financialfactfinder looks at the fiscal year 2015 and analyzes seven films financialfactfinder claims to be released in the fiscal year 2015, the period from March 31, 2014 – March 31, 2015. We would also like to note that our revenue figures are actually higher than financialfactfinder’s.

Raanjhanaa was released on June 21, 2013 (Source which is the fiscal year 2014.
Factfinder revenue: $4.85 million
Alpha Exposure revenue: $7.61 million

Ram-Leela was released on November 15, 2013 (Source which is the fiscal year 2014.
Factfinder revenue: $8.51 million
Alpha Exposure revenue: $12.63 million

Jai Ho was released on January 24, 2014 (Source which is the fiscal year 2014.
Factfinder revenue: $7.81 million
Alpha Exposure revenue: $12.16 million

Krrish 3 was released on November 1, 2013 (Source which is the fiscal year 2014.
Factfinder revenue: $22.5 million
Alpha Exposure revenue: $3.67 million
Factfinder is erroneously attributing worldwide rights to Eros, not the international distribution rights

Yeh Jawaani was released on May 31, 2013 (Source which is the fiscal year 2015.
Factfinder revenue: $13.46 million
Alpha Exposure revenue: $3.72 million

Factfinder is erroneously attributing worldwide rights to Eros, not the international distribution rights

Singh is Bliing was released on October 2, 2015 (Source which is the fiscal year 2016.

Thus, of financialfactfinder’s “7 films released in FY 2015,” only one was actually released in fiscal year 2015. Furthermore, Eros only has international distribution rights for the one movie that was released in the fiscal year 2015, Singham Returns. Contrary to financialfactfinder’s post, they have deliberately attempted to obfuscate other readers. Maybe in financialfactfinder’s next post they can include revenues from Transformers: Age of Extinction and The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies. At least these movies were actually released between March 31, 2014 and March 31, 2015.

We find it quite interesting that every single movie that financialfactfinder mentions is a movie that we have accounted for. FinancialFactFinder, can you please provide us with just 3 other movies that we haven’t mentioned previously that were released between April 1, 2013 and March 31, 2015, along with their respective revenue contribution?

Next, financialfactfinder states that Eros’ theatrical revenues comprise 43% of total revenues and he uses this 43% to assume higher non-theatrical revenue attributable to Eros. KPMG suggests a different breakdown in its “Indian Media and Entertainment Industry Report” ( page 67). KPMG breaks out the revenue sources of the Indian Film Industry. Total theatrical revenues comprise 81% of total revenues. We believe that 81% would be a much more reasonable figure to use.

Finally, we get to financialfactfinder’s conclusion, which is actually longer than the body of the post, yet has very little substance. Again, we have no idea where financialfactfinder got the reported $67 million in revenues reported this quarter as Eros International Plc. has yet to report. As we haven’t seen this quarter’s numbers, we can’t opine on them.

Lastly, financialfactfinder lists a bunch of metrics to show the stock’s supposed attractiveness. We contend that if the underlying numbers are wrong, the metrics are misleading.

[foot in mouth] 11/11/2015 17:42

'the company is expected to report its next quarterly earnings report on Wednesday, November 11th'

hxxp://www.dakotafinancialnews.com/analysts-anticipate-eros-international-plc-will-announce-earnings-of-0-34-per-share-nasdaqeros/631694/

[lonrho] 11/11/2015 17:35

I thought it was first half of the month, indian subsidiary results came out on monday.

[cwa1] 11/11/2015 17:33

Might be of interest:-

[foot in mouth] 11/11/2015 16:40

We are supposed to be getting the trading figures today.............where are they?

[soul limbo] 11/11/2015 16:38

"OK one says over 2000 , the other over 3000. So if the exact figure is 3001 then both are correct. Over 3000 was spelt out in the first quarter results."


really ? is that the best you can do ? you need to stop being apologetic about the company's incompetence. You are creating silly excuses for the company's ineptness. This isn't some corner shop getting it's stock take wrong. This is supposed to be a reputable and large outfit.

Is the company too stupid in not knowing the precise figure ? If it doesnt know what the figure is.. then who will ?

It just adds to the suspicion that they are making things up.

Furthermore, why haven't listed all the films they have distributed ? That would address a large part of the suspicion. Yet they refuse to do that.


EROS, like the other QPP and GBO stinks. Just like the latter two it'll eventually have to come clean.

[keya5000] 11/11/2015 16:29

Almost seems a dark sector of the market has been created to produce the type of research we see on EROS, almost the complete opposite of a house broker report.

Guess if you have a hedge fund spending a few grand on someone whose capable of producing plausible reporting like we see here at Eros is very worthwhile. You can't sue brokers when the share price targets are not met and these research houses are often only giving assumptions. But they are extreme.

No holding here but really interested on how this may play out.

[bishan bedi] 11/11/2015 16:23

Smurfy, any news on your stock transfer? How long has it taken so far?

TIA

[smurfy2001] 11/11/2015 14:35

Given the fact the writer is anonymous he is clearly a coward.

Obvious conclusion is this is a desperate attempt to tarnish the company for their benefit and it's easy to do that if you're anonymous. I'd rather Eros not waste their time taking legal action as they have already responsed. Given a bank and journalist have picked this up makes me very suspicious indeed. Why would such established entities care about some tweets for example?

I still maintain my long term view on the company and with a very modest holding l won't be losing much if I'm wrong.

[michael156] 11/11/2015 14:26

I agree, the shorter's are making a packet out of all this while the every day shareholders are going through turmoil. This company has been around a long time and has a good concept in the Indian film industry which is a big thing out there, lets hope it all comes out in the wash and if there are any misdemeanours, they are more on the exaggeration side than dirty dealings like the way in which these shorter's live their lives.

[yorkie52] 11/11/2015 13:40

OK one says over 2000 , the other over 3000. So if the exact figure is 3001 then both are correct. Over 3000 was spelt out in the first quarter results.

I am getting a bit fed up of these shister short sellers that are deliberately providing misinformation through anonymous sources. I trust they will get exposed and brought to legal justice. At the end of the day it's theft. For me its provided an opportunity to buy in at artificially low prices which in time will recover handsomely. I hope!

[soul limbo] 10/11/2015 23:41

$EROS Press releases contradict each other again on film count
from

Press Release 1:

Eros International Plc (NYSE: EROS) is a leading global company in the Indian film entertainment industry that acquires, co-produces and distributes Indian films across all available formats such as cinema, television and digital new media. Eros International Plc became the first Indian media company to list on the New York Stock Exchange. Eros International has experience of over three decades in establishing a global platform for Indian cinema. The Company has a competitive advantage through its extensive and growing movie library comprising of over 2,000 films, which include Hindi, Tamil, and other regional language films for home entertainment distribution. Eros International has built a dynamic business model by combining the release of new films every year with the exploitation of its film library. For further information please visit: www.erosplc.com


Press Release 2:

Eros International Plc (NYSE: EROS) is a leading global company in the Indian film entertainment industry that acquires, co-produces and distributes Indian films across all available formats such as cinema, television and digital new media. Eros International Plc became the first Indian media company to list on the New York Stock Exchange. Eros International has experience of over three decades in establishing a global platform for Indian cinema. The Company has an extensive and growing movie library comprising of over 3,000 films, which include Hindi, Tamil, and other regional language films for home entertainment distribution. The Company also owns the rapidly growing OTT platform ErosNow. For further information please visit: www.erosplc.com

[my retirement fund] 10/11/2015 19:55

worth reading about the original nyse listing debacle from Simon thompson and his conclusion, however another reason for not pulling the flotation could have been the companies cash flow shortcomings .....perhaps they needed the extra money otherwise they were bust, who knows what support they really had from their bank if any leading up to this?

New York IPO debacle

The obvious and yet to be answered question is how could the board of Eros's directors and their bankers have gauged investor demand so poorly? It's not as if market conditions are harsh. In fact, the S&P 500 is trading at a record high. The other point to note is that after factoring in the IPO proceeds, and costs of the IPO, by my calculations Eros has pro-forma net debt of between $100m to $110m, so has balance sheet gearing of only 20 per cent. In other words, the board didn't have any pressing financial reason to go ahead with an IPO that was priced at a level to the detriment of minority holders of the Aim-traded shares.

Furthermore, at the current price the shares are rated on 10 times net earnings for the financial year to March 2014. That's hardly an exacting valuation compared with US content providers and the company is even more lowly rated than its peers on an enterprise value to cash profit multiple.

This then begs the question why wasn't the IPO aborted and restarted when institutional demand warranted a listing at a higher price? The obvious, albeit cynical, answer lies in the small print. That's because in connection with the proposed listing on the NYSE, Jyoti Deshpande, chief executive and managing director, entered into a new employment agreement with Eros pursuant to which she is entitled to receive a 4 per cent stake in the company's ordinary share capital on or before 20 September 2013, of which an equal percentage of shares has been locked up for one, two and three years. In addition, Ms Deshpande is entitled to receive 'A' ordinary shares of Eros valued at $2m within seven days of the shares being admitted to trading on the NYSE. In other words, there was every incentive for the company's boss to get the IPO away even if the price was slashed from $15-$17 to a miserly $11 a share.

[smurfy2001] 10/11/2015 16:28

MUMBAI: For the quarter ended 30 September, film studio Eros International Media’s consolidated total income saw a stupendous 112.3 per cent growth to Rs 510 crore (Rs 5.1 billion) from Rs 240.3 crore (Rs 2.4 billion) a year ago.

The growth came largely on the back of a strong portfolio of films including Salman Khan-starrer blockbuster ‘Bajrangi Bhaijaan’ and was supported by healthy contribution from theatrical, overseas and satellite revenues.

The company’s net profit after minority interests soared 80.2 per cent to Rs 90.3 crore (Rs 903 million) in the September quarter compared to Rs 50.1 crore (Rs 501 million) a year ago.

Theatrical revenues contributed 59.1 per cent to the total income, followed by overseas revenues at 11.8 per cent, and television and others at 29.1 per cent.

Theatrical revenues during the quarter were driven by worldwide releases such as ‘Bajrangi Bhaijaan’, ‘Srimanthudu’ (Telugu), ‘Welcome Back’, ‘Hero’, ‘Life of Josutty’(Malayalam) and other regional-language releases.

During the quarter, the studio released 20 films including 16 Hindi, three Tamil/Telugu and another regional film as opposed to 21 films in the second quarter of the previous fiscal (15 Hindi and six Tamil/Telugu films).

The company released three high, three medium, and 14 low-budget movies compared to one high, three medium, and 17 low-budget films.

Direct costs also increased exponentially to Rs 341.2 crore (Rs 3.41 billion), representing a staggering 135.1 per cent increase from Rs 144.8 crore (Rs 1.45 billion) in the year-ago period. This resulted from an increase in marketing because of more high- and medium-budget films, increased amortisation charge as well as overflows accrued to co-producers due to the high performance of films.

The company’s EBIT rose by nearly 93 per cent to Rs 139 crore (Rs 1.39 billion) from Rs 72.1 crore (Rs 721 million). EBIT margins stood at 27.3 per cent compared to 30 per cent in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal. Margins, in general, could fluctuate quarter on quarter based on quantum of library income and as such should be looked at annually, the company said.

As on 30 September 2015, total receivables stood at Rs 629.9 crore (Rs 6.3 billion), compared to Rs 525.7 crore (Rs 5.26 billion) as on 31 March 2015.

Receivables not due as of 30 September 2015 amounted to Rs 33.6 crore (Rs 336 million). The company’s net debt position improved by Rs 33 crore (Rs 330 million) to Rs 280.8 crore (Rs 2.81 billion) as on 30 September, compared to Rs 313.8 crore (Rs 3.14 billion) as on 31 March 2015.

Eros International Media executive vice chairman & managing director Sunil Lulla said, “We are pleased to announce a continued strong performance in the second quarter backed by multiple record-breaker ‘Bajrangi Bhaijaan’, starring Salman Khan, that became one of the biggest movies in Bollywood history, laugh-riot ‘Welcome Back’, and Mahesh Babu-starrer Telugu film ‘Srimanthudu’, which registered brilliant box-office performances.

The core building blocks of business strategy continues to be to having a balanced portfolio of films, strong presales and healthy catalogue monetisation that lends a high degree of predictability to our business. “In this quarter, we are excited to release the much-anticipated Sanjay Leela Bhansali’s magnum opus ‘Bajirao Mastani’ to light up your holiday season and the remainder of the fiscal year has a string of high-profile movies that include Tamil film, Suriya’s ‘24’, Telugu films ‘Dictator̵7; and Pawan Kalyan’s ‘Sardar’, and the film festival favourite ‘Aligarh’;.

We have also picked up momentum in the regional market with releases lined up in Punjabi, Marathi, Bengali and Malayalam.” Eros International Group CEO and managing director Jyoti Deshpande commented, “We held our maiden Investor Day on 13th October 2015 in New York, where we shared details of our business strategy for the film studio business supported by Trinity Pictures as well as our emerging digital business ErosNow. We shared the registered user numbers for ErosNow, which had grown from 14 million in December 2014 to 30 million by September 2015. We showcased our roadmap for the launch of new original programming, new product features and new pricing for ErosNow, and detailed our monetisation strategies across the advertising, transactional and premium subscription models.

“In spite of our strong business fundamentals and no material changes since our March and June results, both of which were positive, we recently became the target of an anonymous attack resulting in great volatility of our stock price. We have already responded in detail to this attack. We expect to follow the strong growth and profitability showcased in our Indian subsidiary results with positive results for Eros International soon after these results.”

Read more at: hxxp://www.televisionpost.com/news/eros-rides-on-bajrangi-bhaijaan-in-q2/ | TelevisionPost.com

[soul limbo] 10/11/2015 16:26

from above article


We challenge the company to identify the other 82 films it claims to have distributed during fiscal years 2014 and 2015. Our exhaustive investigation leads us to believe that Eros distributed less than half as many movies as it claims to have distributed

FAKE MOVIES = FAKE REVENUES

Based on our research, Eros appears to have overstated its fiscal 2014 and fiscal 2015 theatrical revenues by at least 82% and 104%, respectively.

Eros claims that it generated $123 million of theatrical revenue during fiscal 2015, but our research from publicly available sources reveals that actual theatrical revenue was only $60 million, an overstatement of 104% of its actual revenue. Even if we missed films in our analysis, it is unlikely that any of the missed films would have been a material contributor to revenue.



We believe our figures are generous. Five of the twenty-seven films listed above are Tamil films. Revenue from Tamil films is not tracked independently and our research has indicated that there is frequently revenue exaggeration for Tamil films (Source). We also gave Eros full credit for Kochadaiiyaan. This movie was a Tamil blockbuster, but Eros only participated in the less lucrative Hindi release. Our research has shown that the Hindi version did very poorly and was a financial disaster, but we cannot find a source that precisely divides the film's revenues between its Hindi and Tamil versions.

For fiscal 2014, we calculated a revenue overstatement of 82%.



We challenge the company to publicly release the revenues it earned from its supposed 134 films released in the past two years.

FAKE REVENUE? HIDE IT OVERSEAS!

In trying to justify the high levels of overseas revenue it books, Eros claims that the contribution from India is just 50-55% of its total revenues, regardless of in which geography the revenue is booked. However, according to the 19 Eros films tracked on Box Office India, 88% of the gross box office for these films was earned in India in the fiscal year 2015, as can be seen in the following chart. This seems to significantly contradict the company's claims regarding in which geography it earns its revenue.



Likewise, KPMG, in its "Indian Media and Entertainment Industry Report" suggests a similar conclusion (Source). It breaks out the revenue sources of the Indian Film Industry as follows:



If one were to absurdly assume that Home Video, Cable and Satellite Rights, and Ancillary Revenue Streams all come from outside India, Indian revenue would still be 74% of the total for the calendar year 2014. Looking just at the theatrical revenues for the Indian film industry, KPMG estimates that 92% of the revenue comes from India. Thus, Eros' claim that only 50-55% of its revenue is derived from India seems implausible given the market in which it operates. We imagine that it is undoubtedly easier to book fake transactions in tax-free jurisdictions like the UAE, BVI, and Mauritius with tiny auditors than it is to fool Grant Thornton in India. In a similar situation, we would note that Globo Plc was just caught deceiving Grant Thornton in a fraud (Source). Thus, the difference between industry norm levels of overseas revenues and Eros' level of overseas revenue is most likely due to invalid and forged transactions booked in exotic jurisdictions like the Isle of Man and the United Arab Emirates.

When a company fakes its revenue, it needs to find a way to keep its financial statements balanced. The easiest way to do this is to create fake accounts receivable, which is then usually reflected in a rising Days Sales Outstanding ("DSO"). In Eros' case, its DSO has increased steadily over each of the past five years, including the most recent quarter (based off of LTM Revenue).

[speedsgh] 10/11/2015 15:23

Eros: Return Of The Short Seller (2015) -

•We previously reported symptoms of deceit at Eros. We will now illustrate what we believe to be pervasive accounting deception related to the company’s revenue figures.

•Eros has overstated the number of movies it has distributed by 124% and 200% during fiscal years 2014 and 2015, respectively. Our comprehensive list of movies is provided below.

•We believe that Eros has overstated its theatrical revenue by 82% and 104% during fiscal years 2014 and 2015, respectively.

•We challenge the company to provide a complete list of movies it has distributed during fiscal years 2014 and 2015.

•We are short Eros with a target price of ZERO.

Two weeks ago, we published a story on Eros International PLC (NYSE: EROS) ("Eros") titled Unlike the Name, Investors Should Not Love EROS. In our prior article, we raised a number of troubling questions about the company's accounting, such as its growing account receivable balances and its subsidiary financials that made no sense. Now, we will illustrate how we believe that there is pervasive deception at the company which starts with the most basic of numbers: the film count and the revenues...

[speedsgh] 09/11/2015 15:14

Consolidated H1 FY 2016 Results at a glance:

TOTAL INCOME: 2016 Rs9,906m (2015 Rs4,849m) +104.3%
EBIT: 2016 Rs2,353m (2015 Rs1,320m) +78.2%
PAT (after minority): 2016 Rs1,437m (2015 860m) +67.1%
DILUTED EPS: 2016 Rs15.27 (2015 Rs9.29) +64.4%

[speedsgh] 09/11/2015 14:40

Jyoti Deshpande, Group CEO & Managing Director of Eros International plc commented, "We held our maiden Investor Day on 13th October 2015 in New York, where we shared details of our business strategy for the film studio business supported by Trinity Pictures as well as our emerging digital business ErosNow. We shared the registered user numbers for ErosNow, which had grown from 14 million in December 2014 to 30 million in September 2015. We showcased our roadmap for the launch of new original programming, new product features and new pricing for ErosNow, and detailed our monetization strategies across the advertising, transactional and premium subscription models.

In spite of our strong business fundamentals and no material changes since our March and June results, both of which were positive, we recently became the target of an anonymous attack resulting in great volatility of our stock price. We have already responded in detail to this attack. We expect to follow the strong growth and profitability showcased in our Indian subsidiary results with positive results for Eros International soon after these results.

We have built the company, brick by brick, with over a three decade consistent track record of leadership and innovation and our dominant presence in the Indian media and entertainment sector is neither new nor by chance. We believe it is the result of a carefully designed and executed strategy built on strong fundametals, a great team and deep relationships across the value chain. We are passionate about our brand and we are ready to embrace any challenge so we can rise above it, stronger and better, with a greater sense of purpose and resilience. We pride ourselves on our value system and are committed to enhancing shareholder value and upholding the trust you have placed in us.

A very Happy Diwali and a Prosperous New year to all of you".

[bishan bedi] 09/11/2015 14:22

smurfy please keep us updated on your progress. Particularly interested in how long it takes to transfer.

I have got as far as confirming the iWeb will trade it, but am loathe to transfer in case I fork out the 200 quid and then the sod gets suspended.

I was moaning about 200 quid a few months ago, oh how times change I could have transferred them in about ten different tranches with the current sp!

[eurofox] 09/11/2015 14:13

Looking good at eros media international subsidiary (also with reference to eros international - you can download their quarterly report via this link:

hxxp://www.bseindia.com/corporates/anndet_new.aspx?newsid=f285f62d-5126-4904-8d08-77d94d29d14f

see also the NYSE reference to this.

[njb67] 08/11/2015 09:00

Smurfy
I transferred four accounts, each containing EROS to iWEB from Stocktrade. Three progressed smoothly, the fourth has got snagged, for no apparent reason.
NJB