Eros Share Discussion Threads

[legg96] 25/10/2015 17:27

The statutory accounts for the last 2 years have shown that less than half of the revenue has come from outside India. This is nothing new. The accounts for these periods also state that sales according to accounting standards have to be analysed according to customer location not where the rights are exploited. Page 57 also states that in the year ended March 2015 that apart from exchange rate differences Indian revenue fell due to "changes in customer location for revenue related to the Indian market." Bit surprised the analyst in question did not read the accounts before making his recommendation.

[foot in mouth] 25/10/2015 16:01

Why haven't the management given a Sunday newspaper interview to say that these allegations are false?? Are they going to make some sort of announcement on Monday to rebuff all of this?

[michael156] 24/10/2015 20:55

The Americans like clear concise answers and haven't been satisfied with what they heard both at the investor day and the lack of response regarding the cyber vigilante's accusations, especially the analyst from wells Fargo, all of which has started general jitters coupled with shorting. Lets hope these are the only reasons and nothing is substantiated, clearly the wolves are out but when all settles a correction is due, don't think it will go back to where it was for some time, especially now that one analyst has downgraded it to $20-22.

Good luck to all.

[smurfy2001] 24/10/2015 17:50

Why would you do an investor day if you had something to hide. Like l say since the investor day it's been downhill since. I'm flabbergasted this can happen to a NYSE listed stock. Most of the gains gone in weeks. The FT did mention a seller out there and the Amazon rumour, it all stinks.

[michael156] 24/10/2015 17:46

Watched webcast Eurofox, very long as you say but some good information. The Q & A section showed how difficult the language/ cultural differences sometimes cause problems in business, on one hand you had the western world investors not trusting figures/data from an unknown source and on the other you had the Eros management knowing what they want and where they are going but not able to convince them. I felt that some may have left the room not totally satisfied, which is due to these barriers and the fact its early days for Eros now so figures are not always readily available.

[foot in mouth] 24/10/2015 16:49

Crumbs. I knew in the back of my mind that it'd have to be something like this for such a dramatic fall in a short space of time.

We can only guess that the person in Twitter took out a massive short on this 'story'. But if they were so confident why did they not reveal their name??
In the event of an untruth I just hope he/she is wrong and is subject to criminal procedures - rather than the EROS directors......time will tell.

The EROS directors should get their fingers out and clarify that all is well otherwise we ain't gonna have a company for much longer.......

If I had more cash i'd buy more. Good luck to the longs and I hope the shorters get burned.

[michael156] 24/10/2015 12:47

Have mailed Eros for some clarity on recent events, hopefully they will enlighten us. Also recommended they put out an update to inform investors and steady the ship...fingers crossed.

[eurofox] 24/10/2015 12:38

there is a very long (4 hours 10 mins) investor day webcast at hxxp://edge.media-server.com/m/p/ntd69s5u

its well worth listening to and sticking with - especially the Q&A in the last 40 mins - this has changed my take on the company very much for the better and i see the alleged twitter comments as mischief, just as you get on other advfn threads from time to time. I don't invest in the shares but I do have sterling bond holdings where i see a major opportunity for investment on the dips.

[legg96] 24/10/2015 12:12

Page 57 of the statutory accounts states "We derive 61.5% of our fiscal revenues from outside of India. This percentage is calculated(as required under International Financial Reporting Standards) based on where the customer who entered into a contract with us is located and not necessarily on the geography of the rights being exploited or licensed. To that extent, this net revenue by customer may not be reflective of the potential of any given market." What`s new?

[jazza] 24/10/2015 00:54

This "fraud - cooked the books" theme seems increasingly common.

doesn't signify an increase in the actuality - more a chance to make a bent £/$ by hitting the web.

[michael156] 23/10/2015 23:12

Have held Eros for years and they are not the best with communications but unless there's something else lurking we should see a correction. Have committed the cardinal sin and bought on the downward spiral, always risky but still haven't seen any hard facts for such a decline... baffling !?

[smurfy2001] 23/10/2015 22:29

Here's the twitter feed. Lots of tweets from this poster....

[smurfy2001] 23/10/2015 22:24

A twitter user has caused the share price collapse?

Eros Tanks as Wells Fargo Analyst Questions Company Metrics

Eros International Plc fell for a fifth straight day after analysts at Wells Fargo & Co. said they weren’t satisfied by answers the Bollywood film producer and distributor gave investors on a call held Friday to combat accusations of fraud posted on Twitter.

Eros slid 17 percent to $14.65 at the close in New York, bringing its loss for the week to 45 percent. Wells Fargo analyst Eric Katz cut his rating on the shares to market perform, saying he wasn’t comfortable with explanations about the company’s growing business in the United Arab Emirates. Eros, based in Secaucus, New Jersey, distributes Indian-made films.

“We still don’t know the largest content buyers driving this increase, and we aren’t fully comfortable with the fact nearly half of the revenue originates outside of India,” Katz wrote in a note.

Eros management spoke with analysts on Friday in an attempt to assuage fears that a spike in revenue booked in the UAE was fraudulent. A Twitter user called Market Farce, whose profile reads, “Focused on uncovering farcical, fraudulent and dishonest financial market activity,” has claimed UAE sales aren’t legitimate and has questioned the company’s ErosNow registered users.


Eros wouldn’t disclose the counterparties driving the UAE sales, citing contract confidentiality.
“We are not going to comment on an unknown person who hides behind an alias on social media to make ridiculous and outrageous accusations,” said Whit Clay, an outside spokesman for Eros.

The stock has been sinking since mid-October, when Market Farce, who declined to reveal his identity when reached by Bloomberg, began Tweeting about Eros.

Eros reported fiscal 2015 UAE revenue of $103.8 million, up from $45.6 million in 2014 and $14.5 million in 2013. The sales are based on a customer’s domiciled location, according to a company filing. Market Farce claimed on Twitter the company boosted UAE sales in quarters when “their movies don’t work.” Eros produces, acquires and distributes Indian language films and has a market capitalization of $843 million.

The company has 30.5 million registered users for Eros Now, its Netflix Inc.-like product that streams Bollywood movies and music, according to a person familiar with the matter. The company hasn’t disclosed how may of these users pay for the service or how many are monthly active users.

“We’re still feeling uncertain about the ErosNow user count,” Katz wrote. “Public websites that track app downloads (i.e. App Annie) show relatively low rankings for ErosNow vs. other Indian streaming services with lower user counts. We can’t reconcile the disparity and it’s a red flag for investors.”

Wells Fargo dropped its price target on Eros to between $20 and $22 per share from $48 to $50. Shares have fallen more than 54 percent since Oct. 12.

Analyst Tim Nollen at Macquarie Research said the shares were oversold for “no good reason.” In a note, Nollen said he spoke with Eros executives “who say nothing has changed and nothing is amiss.”

The company has been in talks with Singapore-based Fullerton Fund Management Co. on a deal that would value Eros Now at as much as $800 million, people familiar with the matter said in July. Those talks are still ongoing and a deal could be announced this month, one of the people said.

[smurfy2001] 23/10/2015 22:17

Eros: Bullish Thoughts Post Management Meeting

Summary

The box office remains strong, with EROS accounting for five of top 10 highest-grossing films.

International expansion is a potential catalyst for the shares.

OTT streaming product progressing ahead of expectations. Original content in focus.

This author had the chance to meet Eros International Inc. (NYSE:EROS) management during a broker-led meeting and came away pretty impressed ahead of the company's Investor Day, which is scheduled for Tuesday. Overall, the box office trend in India is strong, and EROS should see a relatively strong year with several key Bollywood titles, while the joint production with Chinese movie stars could add further upside to its box office estimates.

As regards the OTT product, company management appears to be very enthusiastic about its prospects. Although no financial metrics were given, management is confident that the company could become the dominant OTT platform provider in India, on par with Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) in North America. Finally, like NFLX, EROS is focusing on original content to differentiate itself from its competitors. Several new titles are in the pipeline, and the initial commentaries by management are positive. I remain bullish on the stock, as it is well positioned for the OTT trend taking shape in India.

Based on my conversation with management, the box office this year is certainly on the right side of the trend, with EROS representing five of the top ten highest-grossing Bollywood films in India this year, such as Bajrangi Bhaijaan, which generated over $120m in box office sales and sold out a 5k-seat cinema in Korea. This not only highlights the company's ability to delivery blockbuster hits, but also points at the potential overseas opportunity, where the demand for Bollywood films is growing.

As such, the company is collaborating with Jackie Chan to produce Kung Fu Yoga in China, designed to penetrate the Chinese film market. Depending on the demand, I would not be surprised to see Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) taking a stake in EROS as it ramps up on its OTT services and foreign content as part of its ecosystem expansion. BABA is well known for working with Lions Gate Entertainment (NYSE:LGF), given LGF's track record in delivery hits at a budget - something EROS is also known for. I believe this could be a catalyst for EROS shares in the medium term.

A bit disappointing was that there was no definitive word on the EROS OTT product, but management commentaries suggest that the usage and conversion rates are progressing ahead of expectations. When asked about its take on the potential entry of NFLX into India, management believes that it will be a positive rather than a negative for the OTT landscape, which I agree with, given that NFLX has traditionally partnered with local media companies that have a proven track record in creating original content. In Japan, NFLX is collaborating with Fuji Media, and it is likely to do the same in China and Korea when the company finalizes the partnerships in 2016 and beyond. I see EROS to be the likely choice for NFLX to partner with as part of its entry into India, given EROS's focus on original content. Worth noting, it has created several animated web comic series to educate the market about its upcoming film Bajirao Mastani (scheduled for a December 18 release), so I expect this original content to be a hit upon release.

[smurfy2001] 23/10/2015 22:13

I'm lost for words. If the results are bad this is worst leak i've seen.

[michael156] 23/10/2015 13:53

I've had a good look around for any fact based issues here and couldn't find any as of yet. The nest has certainly been stirred by something over the last few days or perhaps its just the shorters playing games?

[a0148009] 23/10/2015 13:51

Hello Chaps

I have attempted to set up a thread on ERO1 ADVFN Bond quote site as I think it
would be more useful to have comments on the bonds on the same site as prices,trades etc.

It is the first time I have tried to set up a thread so would value your comments and like to know if you are interested in contributing on this.

A friend owns 240k nominal of this and to put it mildly before he invested I told him at the time I thought it excessive but said he was desperate for income!!

AO

[miti 1000] 23/10/2015 11:09

smurfy ,fisherpaul,
Fwiw, most of those sales about 80k this am where from a friend of mine who bought on the dip to 77-78 yesterday and has just traded out.Don't read anything else into them.

[fisherpaul64] 23/10/2015 10:38

Sorry Speedsqh, using wrong term. The sell to buy range is £78 to £82. Sell off halted at 9.54am. EROS fill a very niche market and although are using a similar delivery model to Netflix and Amazon prime their content is very different. I would have though the challenge is how EROS expands its content to give it wider appeal or will they continue to target their existing market? Anyone any thoughts?

[fisherpaul64] 23/10/2015 10:31

Hi Speedsqh, meant difference in sell and buy prices. Sorry using wrong term, not a regular trader. Sell off finished at 9.54am.

[fisherpaul64] 23/10/2015 10:25

Heavy selling on the bonds again this morning although the price is holding at £78 to £82 spread. If it follows yesterdays trend there will be some big buys towards close of play. Not sure why this is happening with the bonds. Such a low price indicates substantial increase in risk. Give the relatively short time frame of 2021 for these bonds any one have any idea whats going on?

08:38 - 23/10 Sell 25000 £80.03 £2,000,750.00

08:52 - 23/10 Sell 25000 £79.50 £1,987,500.00

09:32 - 23/10 Sell 10000 £80.14 £801,400.00

09:04 - 23/10 Sell 10000 £79.00 £790,000.00

09:04 - 23/10 Sell 10000 £79.00 £790,000.00

[speedsgh] 23/10/2015 10:18

fisherpaul - The bond is trading on a 78.5-82 pence spread. Not pounds. Makes quite a difference to your calculations.

[fisherpaul64] 23/10/2015 09:45

Heavy selling on the bonds again this morning although the price is holding at £78 to £82 spread. If it follows yesterdays trend there will be some big buys towards close of play. Not sure why this is happening with the bonds. Such a low price indicates substantial increase in risk. Give the relatively short time frame of 2021 for these bonds any one have any idea whats going on?

08:38 - 23/10 Sell 25000 £80.03 £2,000,750.00

08:52 - 23/10 Sell 25000 £79.50 £1,987,500.00

09:32 - 23/10 Sell 10000 £80.14 £801,400.00

09:04 - 23/10 Sell 10000 £79.00 £790,000.00

09:04 - 23/10 Sell 10000 £79.00 £790,000.00

[smurfy2001] 22/10/2015 14:50

Downfall seems to stem from the analyst meeting l posted about recently.