Dawnay, Day Treveria Share Discussion Threads

[steban01] 29/3/2007 11:15

Disappointing drop of a few pence.

[lbo] 29/3/2007 08:12

NAV of 111.9c means they are trading at close to a 27% premium!

[steban01] 28/3/2007 13:39

A few big buys going through for this one today, yet, the price is going down!

[lbo] 20/2/2007 14:10

Economic outlook still strong for Germany
Sunday, February 18, 2007 - By Vincent Landon in Berlin
The figures will only add to expectations of a March interest rate rise from the European Central Bank and raise speculation of further increases to come.

The flow of positive data began on Tuesday when the Federal Statistics Office revised upwards its growth rate for 2006 from 2.5 per cent to 2.7 per cent due to a strong performance during the last three months of the year.

It was the best economic performance for the eurozone's largest economy since 2000 and the week was still young. In its annual economic report published on Wednesday, the German government upped its 2007 growth forecast to 1.7 per cent in 2007 instead of the previously forecast 1.4 per cent.

The average annual jobless rate would fall to 9.6 per cent this year from 10.8 per cent in 2006, the government predicted. Indeed ''with a bit of luck'' the annual average jobless total could fall below the key four million mark, Germany's economic minister Michael Glos told a news conference in Berlin.

In 2006, the annual average jobless total stood at 4.487 million. The last time unemployment in Germany was less than four million was in 2001. On the same day, the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) predicted 2 per cent growth against a previous GDP estimate of 1.8 per cent.

Hard on their heels on Thursday, the Association of German Chambers of Industry and Commerce (DIHK) upped its forecast from 1.5 per cent to 2.3 per cent.

The DIKH shares the government's expectations on unemployment and believes that the number of jobless could drop by 500,000 this year. Foreign trade has recently accounted for the lion's share of growth. German exports hit record levels last year up 14 per cent at €893.6 billion. The figures pushed the trade surplus to €161.9 billion, its highest level since unification.

Domestic demand was also strong at the end of 2006 as Germans rushed to make big purchases ahead of a sale tax increase from 16 per cent to 19 per cent at the beginning of January.

Rising investments and increased industrial production were also factors. For 2007, many of these criteria remain valid - hence the optimism. Although the economy was certainly boosted by consumption ahead of the Vat hike, most indicators suggest that any decline in the propensity to buy is a temporary blip and that consumer confidence has remained strong.

The DIW predicts GDP in the first quarter will be up 0.4 per cent (compared to 0.9 per cent growth between October and December). The strength of the euro against the dollar and the yen is admittedly causing disquiet, although the latter seems to be more than offset by the boom in emerging Asian markets.

Luxury carmaker BMW, for example, sold a record 127,000 vehicles in Asia last year, up 14 per cent from the previous year. Wage pressures remain strong and there is particular concern about the latest round of pay negotiations with Germany's IG Metall union. In addition, further structural reforms are seen by economists to be essential. The government cannot afford to rest on its laurels even though recent labour market and social welfare reforms have helped enhance Germany's economic performance.

Taken all round, however, it seems highly likely that the Germany will be one of the top contributors to European growth this year. With other key eurozone economies having a strong start to 2007, the odds are very high that the ECB's key interest rate will go up next month.

[lbo] 19/2/2007 12:37

Germany has risen to one of the world's top three destinations for private equity investment in the Private Equity News annual survey of financial sponsors.

[lbo] 16/2/2007 21:51

KBC Peel Hunt said to buy Dawnay Day Treveria yesterday

[lbo] 13/2/2007 15:10

Germany economy grows 2.7 percent in '06
By DAVID RISING

BERLIN

Germany said Tuesday that its economy -- Europe's biggest -- grew by 2.7 percent last year, raising the figure as fourth-quarter growth came in well above expectations.

The Federal Statistics Office said gross domestic product grew by 0.9 percent in the final three months of the year from the previous quarter, based on preliminary data, in seasonally and calendar-adjusted terms.

That was higher than the average 0.6 percent predicted by 20 economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires.

As a consequence, 2006 GDP rose by 2.7 percent on the year, in unadjusted terms, the statistics office said.

That compared with the 2.5 percent gain originally reported in January, and was the highest growth rate since the economy grew by 3.2 percent in 2000.

The growth was helped by strong exports, while higher domestic investment and a pickup in private consumption also spurred activity.

"However, the extremely dynamic foreign trade contributed by far more to the economic upturn in the reference quarter," the agency said in a statement.

Also Tuesday, the ZEW institute said its monthly survey of investor confidence underlined the continuing economic recovery. The index rose to 2.9 points in February from minus 3.6 in January.

ZEW said the rise signaled that the German economy would pick up speed again in the second half of the year, despite a Jan. 1 rise in value-added tax from 16 percent to 19 percent.

"Luckily, the development of the indicator signals that the dampening effect of the value-added tax increase is mainly a temporary phenomenon according to the financial experts," ZEW president Wolfgang Franz said in a statement.

"Now it is decisive that the German government uses the good business climate for a targeted reform of the corporate tax system and the low-wage sector."

The survey polled more than 300 analysts and institutional investors about their medium-term expectations concerning economic activity and capital markets.

Fourth-quarter growth was 3.5 percent in 2006 over the same quarter the year before in unadjusted terms.

The statistics office also revised third-quarter growth up to 0.8 percent from the same period the year earlier, and raised the second-quarter figures to 1.2 percent. It had previously estimated 0.6 percent and 1.1 percent growth respectively.

When adjusted for the number of working days each year, German GDP rose 2.9 percent in 2006, up from 2.7 percent previously reported.

"Germany as a business location is excellently positioned. The direction of the economic policy is the right one," Economy Minister Michael Glos said in a statement. "We will continue to pursue our path. That's the only way for the upswing to result in even stronger employment and lower unemployment."

The statistics office said that, in the fourth quarter, 39.7 million people had jobs in Germany -- an increase of 452,000, or 1.2 percent, from a year earlier.

[shuisky] 09/2/2007 12:21

DDC up on trading statement, though IMHO, still behind initial planned schedule. No complaints here though, I'm a happy holder.

LBO-I look forward to your hearing your views before the TA's and Results are given.

[lbo] 01/2/2007 15:57

DDC up 8% today on the back of a good statment.

Does not seem to be struggling at all Shuisky!

[lbo] 31/1/2007 12:00

Germany raises 2007 growth forecast
Wednesday, 31 January 2007 11:23
The German government has raised its growth forecast for the current year and predicted that unemployment will fall sharply.

In its annual economic report, the government forecast that gross domestic product (GDP) would expand by 1.7% in 2007, instead of 1.4% as previously anticipated.

In 2006, the German economy notched up growth of 2.5%, the fastest rate of growth in six years. The German government also forecast that the annual average jobless rate would fall to 9.6% this year.

Separate figures this morning showed that the German jobless total rose again in January, but solely as a result of seasonal factors, such as the bad weather.

The rise was not was steep as it normally is at this time of year thanks to the current economic upturn, the Federal Labour Agency said in a statement. The jobless total rose by 240,000 to 4.25 million in January in unadjusted terms. That meant that the jobless rate rose to 10.2% from 9.6% in December.

Seasonally adjusted data published separately by the Bundesbank showed a decline in the German jobless total of around 106,000 to just under 3.98 million in January. The adjusted jobless rate declined to 9.5% in January from 9.8% in December.

[lbo] 30/1/2007 12:42

Here is another one called Rutley European Property Fund

[shuisky] 30/1/2007 08:51

I hold DDC, DLD and DTR. And frankly, DDC is the stock I am least happy with. Both DTR & DLD have raised more money because they are finding ample investment opportunties. Both have reported portfolio revaluation gains, ad both ae exposed to an economy which is having GDP growth forecasts upgraded and seeing unemployment falling.

DDC seems to be struggling to get it's money invested, my guess is that yield comnpression has already started to take place as lots of funds have rushed in.

IMHO, trying to analyse the 'mindset' of buyers/sellers is fraught with difficulty, and not usually a good policy. You have to remember that with commercial property there are a lot of funds (particularly pension) that need a secure long term income. Given that DTR could do 9c divi this for 2007 it's still on a 6.3% yield. That hardly makes the stock expensive when you compare it with 10yr Bunds at near 4% It should remain attractive to funds, and to retail investors seeking yield.

Granted there is risk, but the German Economy is doing find at the moment.

[hectorp] 29/1/2007 19:12

...Some investors who entered the market a few years ago have already begun to take profits, rather than wait to see if the current upbeat predictions prove correct"
( from the above).
I'd expect the rally will run out of steam from here. The guys who got in earlier are sitting pretty. Buyers beware is a good addage here.
The property money to be made is in DDC - dawnay Day Carpathian - I hold DDC.

[davebowler] 26/1/2007 10:50

Big jump today on heavy volume.

[lbo] 17/1/2007 17:21

No idea but the gentle rise is a good sign.

Germany's ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment hit a six-month high in January

[mr_chaps] 11/1/2007 10:02

I have an account with the Share centre and note they mark these as a strong sell, any idea why?

[lbo] 19/12/2006 17:41

German business ends year upbeat

December 19, 2006 09:53
A survey has shown that business confidence in Germany rose unexpectedly in December.

The widely watched business climate index, calculated each month by the Munich-based economic research institute Ifo, rose to 108.7 points in December from 106.8 in November, Ifo said in a statement.

The increase took analysts by surprise. Consensus forecasts had been for a steady Ifo index reading after the barometer returned to its highest level in 15 years in November.


For its monthly survey, Ifo polls about 7,000 companies about their assessment of current business and their expectations for the next six months. A breakdown of the data showed that the current sentiment sub-index rose to 115.3 points in December from 113.9 in November. At the same time, the expectations sub-index also increased, rising to 102.5 points from 100.2.

[lbo] 14/12/2006 13:20

Many analysts are particularly excited about Germany. Merrill Lynch has said that the commercial property market there is one of the most depressed and undervalued in the world - meaning it could be ripe for a turnround.

[lbo] 12/12/2006 15:52

German investor confidence bounces back: ZEW

December 12, 2006 10:42
Investor confidence in Germany bounced back this month from the 13-year low it had reached last month as the current upswing in the euro zone's biggest economy gains breadth and momentum.

The ZEW economic research institute's economic expectations index, based on a poll of 303 analysts and institutional investors, rose by 9.5 points to -19 points in December, ZEW said in a statement.

While analysts had been expecting the index to bounce back, they had been pencilling in a much more modest increase from the November reading of -28.5 points, which had been the lowest level since 1993.


'The upward movement is probably attributable to the fact that the current economic upturn is gaining in breadth and is forming a stable basis for 2007,' said ZEW President Wolfgang Franz.

After 10 months of consecutive declines, 'expectations seem to ave passed their trough and are on the rise again thanks to the robust economic outlook.'

Nevertheless, it was up to the government to press more decisively ahead with reforms, Franz added.

The ZEW indicator represents the balance between positive and negative expectations for the economy over the next six months. If most analysts and institutional investors polled believe the economy will improve, the index shows a plus. If most are expecting a deterioriation, the index shows a minus.

ZEW also polls analysts and insitutional investors about their assessments of the current situation. The 'current situation index' showed a further improvement, rising by 10.5 points to +63.5 points in December, a record high.

[lbo] 10/12/2006 16:55

Germany's jobless rate falls below 4M
By GEIR MOULSON


Germany's unemployment rate dropped to 9.6 percent in November as the number of people out of work fell below 4 million for the first time in more than four years -- the latest evidence of a gathering recovery in Europe's biggest economy.

The unadjusted jobless rate declined from 9.8 percent in September, while the number of Germans registered as unemployed sank by 89,000 to 3.995 million, the government's Federal Labor Agency said Thursday.

The figure was last below the politically sensitive 4 million mark in October 2002, when it stood at nearly 3.93 million.

The labor agency credited the improvement above all to the strengthening of the economy, although it said unusually mild weather also was a factor in extending a traditional autumn job upswing into November.

Helped by a sustained boom in exports and by investment at home, Germany is emerging from years of sluggish growth. Over recent months, the upturn has finally begun to make itself felt in the labor market.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the number of people without a job fell by 86,000 in November -- far more than the 25,000 forecast of economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires. The adjusted jobless rate fell to 10.2 percent from 10.4 percent in October.

Chancellor Angela Merkel has made tackling persistently high unemployment a key focus. Thursday's figures provided another landmark after the unadjusted jobless rate in October dropped below 10 percent for the first time in four years.

"This is a good, outstanding and wonderful development, but one that also challenges us to even more efforts" to combat unemployment, Vice Chancellor Franz Muentefering told parliament.

Muentefering, who is also labor minister, pointed to the fact that 536,000 fewer people were unemployed in November than a year earlier -- "that's a small major city."

Unemployment was a key factor in the election defeat last year of former Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's center-left government. Schroeder once promised to get unemployment down to 3.5 million, but instead saw the jobless total rise above 5 million last year for the first time in post-World War II Germany.

UniCredit economists Alexander Koch and Andreas Rees forecast in a research note that "the upswing on the German labor market will continue," with the jobless total averaging 4.1 million over the course of 2007 -- compared with 4.5 million this year.

But they also cautioned that "the increase in employment is ... still well shy of the average of past employment cycles" and said temporary jobs have been a significant factor.

"So far at least, companies have remained cautious," they wrote. "The good economic development next year should gradually change this. Only a hard landing by the global economy could still prevent a sustained recovery on the labor market."

Germany's upturn has been echoed by lower unemployment in neighboring France, another major euro-zone economy. France's jobless rate stood unchanged at 8.8 percent in October, the lowest level in more than five years.

Economists are hopeful that lower German unemployment will boost consumer spending, despite figures released Thursday that showed retail sales unexpectedly declining slightly in October.

Sales fell 0.2 percent from the previous month and 0.8 percent from a year earlier despite increasing sales of household appliances and home improvement products.

Surveys have pointed to rising consumer confidence as unemployment falls and shoppers eye purchases ahead of a planned January increase in value-added tax.

[shuisky] 27/11/2006 10:31

LBO, kiss and make up? ;)

[lbo] 23/11/2006 18:37

LOL


Companies: DTR EFD ISH MAYG MCAU NEPR PEJR SSV TRC
11/12/2006

The popularity of investment companies and funds rushing to invest in 'real estate' in fast-developing markets, such as India or Eastern Europe and resurgent ones such as Germany and Japan, has been an important feature of the property gold rush. And although India-focused Trinity Capital, the biggest property fundraising on AIM this year, trades ten per cent below the 100p at which it attracted £250 million in May, November newcomer Ishaan Real Estate managed to raise an almost-as-impressive £207 million to invest in the same market. Ishaan's original £180 million offer was over-subscribed as numerous investors were captivated by Ishaan's focus on IT parks and Special Economic Zones. Its eight-strong initial portfolio has already been valued in excess of £440 million and further wise investments should make it an interesting punt.

Closer to home, Dawnay Day Trevaria, focused on German retail property, has made like Oliver Twist, and charmed another c300 million from the market at c1.12 – less than a year after it raised its original c444 million at c1. Dawnay Day's interim results to June showed adjusted NAV per share rising 10.2 per cent to 106.5c. A 2c dividend was proposed.

Different niches
Three other funds, each in a different niche, arrived in November after pocketing a collective £380 million.

Northern European Properties, with its eyes on c750 million of property in the Nordic and Baltic regions, was the most ambitious and hauled in c350 (£237) million at 105c a share for a £316 million market capitalisation. Next, the Prospect Epicure J-REIT Value Fund, led by Hawaii University graduate Curtis Freeze, raised £101 million to invest in Japanese Real Estate Investment Trusts, a traditionally lower-risk exposure to the sector. And Speymill Macau Property, probably not the lowest-risk investment, now has $80 (£41) million to invest in what executive chairman Bob MacDonald believes is 'one of the most compelling property investment cases we see at the current time'.

Moving away from funds to those actually getting their hands dirty, Dublin-based Siteserv, a venture that is seeking to expand its profitable construction site services group to the rest of Ireland and then the UK, coaxed c10.45 million at a price of 55c as it floated simultaneously on AIM and the Irish Enterprise Exchange in mid-November. By means of two acquisitions, Donohue Scaffolding in June and fencing supplier Rent-a-Fence last year, chief executive Brian Harvey has so far made a c39.4 million turnover business. He wants to build an 'all-encompassing' site services group organically and has 'a couple of targets' for potential acquisitions, particularly focused on the country's lucrative infrastructure projects. 'Once we've done that we want to replicate the same model in the UK within the next 24 months.' The Irish construction industry is expected to remain buoyant and the shares have skipped up to 80c, reflecting investor confidence, and could go further.

The arrival of Siteserv and its immediate friendly welcome is unsurprising, considering the achievements of sector peer May Gurney, a June arrival after an oversubscribed placing at 186p. It has built an even bigger following since then, rising 45 per cent to 270p on a number of positive updates, including an 18 per cent upgrade in the size of the secured order book to over £900 million.

Eatonfield's allure
North Walean brownfield and green homes developer Eatonfield was another to join last month, with £15 million of new cash. Its specialisation on urban regeneration has seen it received with open arms, sending the shares up 9.2 per cent from its 125p issue price. It recently won a huge 24-acre, mixed-use regeneration contracts in Paignton, Devon and founder Rob Lloyd, who sold £5 million worth of his previous 100 per cent stake in the company, says 'the float will give us funds to expand the company so we can go for other larger deals.' Furthermore, Eatonfield, like increasing numbers of housebuilders, is tapping into a rich vein of green sentiment by offering a range of eco-friendly extras homebuyers can have added onto their new homes, such as wind turbines, solar panels or rainwater collectors. It looks a good one to watch.

[shuisky] 17/11/2006 17:54

Did the price fall after the placing was announced or not?

Does an afternoon trading constitute a while?

Did I ever suggest the placing wouldn't be well received? (Actually I said the contrary)

In any case, who gives a toss? I hold lumps of this, and back it long term.

[lbo] 17/11/2006 16:03

Shuisky I could read perfectly your comment that "the share price will be surpressed for a while." and ydderfs comment "it is difficult to see why institutions would subscribe for new shares at a price in excess of nav (106c)....a short sell imho"

I can also read perfectly your comments today:
"The Shareprice was E1.19 on the day of the anouncement, than we got marched down to 1.15.The placing price has been set, so we've seen some buyers come back in taking us to 1.22, and immediately sellers have taken us down to 1.19 as I write"

I can also read the graph and the trades and the bid offer spreads and what has traded over the last few days and the fact that the bid now is for 200k at 1.20

I think its perhaps you who has the literacy problem and if you can read you should look up the definition of "surpressed" again