Dawnay, Day Treveria Share Discussion Threads

[crawford] 29/9/2008 16:40

What a fall.

[kenny] 29/9/2008 12:53

Good luck, don't hold but all my other holdings have been falling fast. I am holding on to all my shares for recovery - hopefully before I expire!!

[nickcduk] 29/9/2008 12:48

Kenny,

The key part is:-

a possible injection of new equity into the business.

The injection of new equity into the business is different from an injection of new equity into the company.

At least I hope so.

[kenny] 29/9/2008 12:32

It says "new equity" in the press release and presentation. I always understood that to mean a share or preference share issue but I may be wrong.

[crawford] 29/9/2008 12:06

Nick,
I thought it mean't an outside injection of capital and not a share placing.

Just reading the presentation:

[nickcduk] 29/9/2008 11:58

If as I imagine they are talking about bringing an external partner in then that would free up a huge slug of capital. They could use that to reduce LTV levels across the spv or else use part of it to return to shareholders. A huge share buyback around current levels wouldn't go amiss.

[crawford] 29/9/2008 11:52

Thanks nickcduk,
keep us posted.

[nickcduk] 29/9/2008 11:37

More information on the results is available on the presentation on the website. Need clarification of whether new equity is through new DTR shares or are they talking about new equity within the operating entities. CAL sold half their share in their German operations earlier this year. I would guess that is what DTR are looking to do. Trying to get clarification though. Shareholders at the analysts meeting this morning are probably ahead of the curve in that respect.

[crawford] 29/9/2008 10:51

I think the problem is they are breaching some of the loan conditions, but surely an injection of equity would give them the breathing space they need.

NAV is still 92 cents!

I hold, I don't think it's worth selling at this price as recovery could be strong.
Pity they couldn't get a buyers for the entire portfolio.

[kenny] 29/9/2008 10:46

I am guessing the primary reason is the expressed need to raise new financing which will dilute existing shareholders.

The above is combined with falling NAV, cancelled dividend, holding a lot of retail units when retailers are going bust.

Don't know they debt renewal dates, amounts and covenants but you need to find out about those to make a proper judgement. Share price seems to be saying new financing will come in at quite a low figure.

Hope the above helps.

[crawford] 29/9/2008 10:26

Anyone got any viewS?

[crawford] 29/9/2008 10:19

Adjusted NAV per share of 91.2c, surely this has fallen too far?

Some property disposals would help this out.

[crawford] 29/9/2008 09:44

Results are being viewed very badly.

[jdhurry] 26/9/2008 04:08

German finance minister on BBC News 24 last night was very critical of the UK/US system and says Germany not in recession and not likely to go into one. Growth for next year was forecast at a lowly 1% but it could be as low as 0.8%.The clock is ticking for news/results and I'm not sure if I should top up to bring my average down (to around 0.23 - 0.24) or sit on what I've got.

[nickcduk] 25/9/2008 15:07

2 large cross trades have gone through today. My bet is that Aberdeen are out now. That should stop the shares sliding any lower in the short term.

[kenmitch] 24/9/2008 19:54

I posted there too as you've probably seen.

I hope DDE results were Company specific and not the start of a general trend.

I too am nervous about DTR now but they did have plenty of cash. The falling share price and Institutional selling along with the strategic review taking far longer than hoped are all negatives. But I'm keeping fingers crossed that on news/results DTR shares will soar as LCP did after their results last week.

[nickcduk] 24/9/2008 10:14

Ken,

Have a look at DDE results today. They were awful. Ive posted my comments on the board.

It has made me a little nervous about DTR. DTR obviously have a large cash pile and lower gearing and I hope they report results in line with SGL rather than DDE. I hope they have managed to dispose of a few properties as well. I had expected DDE to have done so but they preferred to have waited for a fire sale.

Hybrasil - I guess you were half expecting DDE results to be as they were. Not a surprise that its impossible to get through to management. The scum are obviously hiding away.

[kenmitch] 23/9/2008 16:49

Thanks again nickcduc.

SGL results today looked fine - that did nothing for the share price though.

Ditto Dolphin Capital - I hold those - excellent results yet the shares are down.

So it could be that DTR won't bounce at all, let alone to 30c, even if they announce disposals and a rolling buyback.

Hybrasil - see my posts on Dolphin Capital. Mine is a minority and recently changed view, but fwiw I think the share price would be about where it is now even if they hadn't bought back. Dolphin Capital have spent over £20 million on buybacks and these don't seem to have provided any support for the share price.

[hybrasil] 23/9/2008 08:50

Imagine where this would be if they hadnt bought back 108million shares.

Its hard to believe that this company was once worth more than 600 million. Todays m cap is about 130 million. Thats a lot of money gone forever. I am not an economist but it is shares like this and property assets all over the world that have brought on this awful credit crunch.

[nickcduk] 22/9/2008 22:27

Ken,

Keep an eye out for Summit Germany tomorrow (SGL). Similar kind of set up to DTR with gearing about the same. Has confirmed its interim dividend of 2.3c this evening. Trading much higher than DTR despite NAV being roughly the same (40c).

Not worried that Aberdeen and Black Rock have been selling. They paid 1 euro or more for their holding. Not exactly the kind of investing track record to inspire confidence. Hence don't pay much heed to it.

Expecting shares to bounce to 30c+ if they announce a few disposals and a rolling share buy back. They could initiate a rolling disposal program and use all proceeds to buy back shares over time. You could feasibly end up with considerably over 100c over a couple of years. Fingers crossed that the activist shareholders will push them down this route.

[kenmitch] 22/9/2008 15:07

nickcduk.

Thanks for the reply. You make a convincing case for the buybacks. That won't change my now considerable doubts about them, but rather than continue posting about the negatives, best to wait and hope for positive effects from aggressive buybacks, if indeed they do them.

The rest of your post is very reassuring, so fingers very crossed that your figures are roughly right because if they are the current share price is crazily cheap.

Something just doesn't ring true though. Why on earth are Aberdeen and Black Rock selling? We'll soon find out whether they are privy to negative news that the rest of us aren't!

otoh this one could be like London Asia Chinese - their shares also fell heavily ahead of their results last week and then nearly doubled in two days after them. Hardly surprising with NAV around 140p (from memory) compared with the pre results share price of just 22p. Their profits were worth around 10p a share. Too much to hope that we might see a similar share price reaction to strategic review news/results?

[nickcduk] 22/9/2008 10:50

Ken,

The share buyback argument hasn't really looked very convincing of late as companies have been buying back aggressively without little effect. At current levels though I would prefer them to wade in aggressively. Aberdeen and Black Rock are sellers and if they could pick up their stakes that would be around 10% of the company brought back. They wouldn't have to pay dividends on those shares. At current levels they are effectively getting a 20% return by not having to pay the dividend.

Hopefully they will have plenty of cash with which to do something about the share price. They had around a 150m euros of spare cash at the last set of results. That alone equates to around 25cents. All borrowings are secured against property and are non recourse. They could bank the cashflow (15c) over the next 3 years and return the cash on the balance sheet and walk away from the properties. That would bring in roughly double where we are now. Each property disposal frees up a further 25-30% of capital which also becomes available for distribution to shareholders.

[kenmitch] 22/9/2008 10:17

I saw that too and am sure this explains the recent falls and the huge falls in the share prices over the last year.

Re. the possibility of a share buyback. Dolphin Capital have spent over £20 million buying back their shares - and it has enhanced NAV by a mere 6p. Any positive effect on the share price of these buybacks looks to be very limited. Their shares too continue to trade a huge discount to NAV.

I had always thought that buying assets worth £1 for 30p was a no brainer. There is no point though continuing to assume that these buybacks are an effective way to spend surplus cash when evidence is clearly showing that it isn't.

Assuming they have got cash to spare,better to have a special dividend imo - or better still save it for assets from distressed sellers in the months ahead. But please don't waste it on buybacks.

[cerrito] 21/9/2008 21:09

This from the FT on friday may explain part of the reason that European Property Investment Trusts have been soft in the last 2 days
quote
The combined effect of the Lehman Brothers collapse and the HBOS takeover will make lending to the debt-reliant sector even more sluggish – removing two key lenders and making other banks more cautious on future loans – which is likely to delay the recovery of the physical property market. One private equity investor said this week's events cost banks an extra 10 per cent on the face value of real estate loan books, which have already been sharply priced down. The price of real estate is also likely to be further degraded when Lehman's property assets hit the market. PwC, administrator to Lehman's real estate business, on Friday said it had identified European assets of $15bn (£8.2bn) so far across 200 subsidiaries or joint ventures. There are also non-performing loans, mortgages, private equity interests and shareholdings in listed businesses.

Among its larger deals in the UK, for example, Lehman provided debt and equity for the acquisition of Devonshire House in London's West End for more than £280m last year.

[salver2] 21/9/2008 09:54

the yield i think will be nil-there is nothing much left of this co -the only optimistic thing seems to be montpelier asset management buying and a few others-why do aberdeen and blackrock want out so badly-what is the point of selling at this price if something good is coming from their so called strategic review