Dawnay, Day Treveria Share Discussion Threads

[crawford] 02/9/2008 08:38

Why the fall today?

[kenmitch] 29/8/2008 12:26

Share price down again.

Maybe those of us expecting strategic review news by now should have checked more carefully what they said?

i.e that the review was at a very early stage. Which suggests that it could take several months.

Aberdeen selling is a bit worrying - why sell what seems to be such an undervalued share?

With so many obvious similar bargains maybe with the recent demise of Dawnay Day and the bad news from Carpathian recently, I shouldn't still be holding these?

[kenmitch] 27/8/2008 08:45

Still no news on the strategic review. Aberdeen still selling despite the shares looking so cheap. Fingers crossed that their judgement on DTR proves as wrong as it was on their notorious split capital trusts a few years ago.

[jdhurry] 27/8/2008 07:02

...then again that's another 665k taking them down to 4%.

[jdhurry] 18/8/2008 16:38

Aberdeen have been slowly reducing their exposure (offloading small amounts) for many months "dumping" is too strong a word. Remains to be seen if they want out altogether...

[nickcduk] 15/8/2008 06:46

Its large 2 way trading in DTR still. Aberdeen asset management are dumping stock and have over 20 million shares left still. On the flip side the Rothschild fund has been mopping up stock that Aberdeen have been selling. Wouldn't expect too much upside until Aberdeen have been cleared or until we get news from the strategic review. It is dragging on somewhat, wish the board would crack on with it.

[jdhurry] 15/8/2008 02:07

Should have stabilised around an already low 0.6 imo and there's nothing fundamental to justify the 50% drop from there...

Big buyers still buying but in smaller quantities, last of the cheap shares...

[crawford] 08/8/2008 15:15

This is dirt cheap, I would be buying more if I had free cash.

[nickcduk] 08/8/2008 14:54

Buyer is keen on picking up stock. A hidden buy order is on at 0.35c and getting hit in large quantities. We can't be too far away from an update on the strategic review. Perhaps as early as Monday.

[nickcduk] 08/8/2008 14:46

Nice action today. Not backed up by too much volume though. Difficult to say what could be driving it higher. Perhaps they are close to announce the results of their strategic review. Equally it could be relief that Euro rates look to have peaked for the time being. Welcome whatever the reason. Long may it continue.

[johnsoho] 05/8/2008 16:08

Well, for better or worse, I'm now in

[jdhurry] 04/8/2008 16:24

More recent buys to add to the list:

04/01 QVT Financial Ltd..............................5,500,000
16/01 QVT Financial Ltd..............................5,041,000
...(09/06 DTR announce strategic review)
10/06 Ratio Asset Man. ..............................3,500,000
13/06 Atticus Man. Ltd.................................160,000
25/06 LCF Edmond De Rothschild Banque................1,800,000
25/06 LCF Edmond De Rothschild Banque................4,000,000
25/06 LCF Edmond De Rothschild Banque................1,300,000
25/06 LCF Edmond De Rothschild Banque................2,900,000
...(13/07 Dawnay Day appoints administrators)
14/07 LCF Edmond De Rothschild Banque................8,700,000
15/07 LCF Edmond De Rothschild Banque................9,900,000
15/07 Puma Brandenburg Ltd...........................9,000,000
17/07 QVT Financial Ltd..............................2,300,000
17/07 Ratio Asset Man................................3,500,000
24/07 Duncan Investments Ltd........................12,100,000
25/07 Societe Generale Asset Man.....................2,000,000
25/07 Ratio Asset Man................................2,500,000
25/07 Montpelier Investment Man......................4,800,000
28/07 Montpelier Investment Man.....................12,500,000
01/08 Montpelier Investment Man......................2,000,000
04/08 Montpelier Investment Man......................2,250,000
04/08 Wellington Management Company.....................24,223

this latest buy is not insignificant as they were selling small bundles until mid-July.

Double bottom...

[jonwig] 01/8/2008 19:15

Some possible negatives explaining large discount to NAV:

• LTV stated as 69% (net of cash) ... nowhere are covenants spelt out. Is this near to ceiling? LTV breaches have been the cause of much worry with UK property companies.

• Average lease length of portfolio 5.4 years, though a big proportion is 3 years or less. Rents could fall when lease terms renegotiated.

• Loans maturing in a rush 2011 to 2012. Hints that refinancing might be on onerous terms.

• One tenant (Hertie) insolvent. Is this a possible harbinger?

And the positives:

• A 5.1c divi costs €31m pa, comfortably covered by earnings of €36m pa.

• Commitment to realising shareholder value via strategic review. The announcement of this (June) gave a boost to the sp, which didn't last.

• Possible technical reason for share price weakness: overhang from ex-director.

• German spending habits were never 'excessive' (unlike the UK) so retail slowdown unlikely to be 'off the cliff edge'.

• € not likely to depreciate sharply against £, I think ...

[jdhurry] 01/8/2008 19:05

kenmitch had similar thoughts myself and can't see it.

[kenmitch] 01/8/2008 17:28

Re. the forthcoming Europe wide Property correction which seems to be taken as read by investors and commentators...

... have a look at post 137 from paulypilot.

We've holidayed in Germany from time to time. The thing that anyone looking at property prices there can't fail to notice is how cheap they are. Apparently in Germany many rent rather than buy.

Last time we were there houses that would cost £350,000 and more in non property hot spots here - and way over £500,000 in hot spots, were selling there for around £50,000. OK that was before sterling fell against the euro, but even so the difference between prices there and here was staggering.

Assuming the same applies to commercial property as suggested in post 137 then why should property prices fall much if at all in Germany even if they fall heavily elsewhere in Europe?

And assuming this is right then the Trusts and Companies investing only in Germany but where the share prices have been hammered as hard as those investing where there has been a property bubble must be worth a look at current depressed prices surely?

Or are there negatives that I've missed to explain why shares in Trusts investing in non bubble areas have been hit just as hard as the others?

[jonwig] 01/8/2008 15:35

There's a free way to search Shares Mag, but not, it seems, the most recent issues:

[crawford] 01/8/2008 15:09

kenmitch,
yes, noticed that - thanks for printing it.

[kenmitch] 01/8/2008 14:15

fwiw - Shares Magazine were positive this week. I can't find a link.

Key points - all well known here it seems...

Forced selling by Peter Klint and Guy Naggar drove the price down 40% in July.

Now this is nearly over the price should recover from an oversold level of 31 cents.

It's too early to call the bottom of the Europe wide property correction and further yield compression will continue to weigh on capital values. They point out that the shares are trading at less than a third of their last NAV - 113c last December. Rental income should continue to flow and if a policy of paying out 90% of net income enables the 187 million euro market cap to match last year's 5.1c dividend the stock will offer a juicy 16% yield.

Finally they suggest that the appointment of a new manager is also a further potential catalyst.

[jdhurry] 01/8/2008 11:16

High yes but that's their business model if gearing was 1 they'd be worth 3EUR!!! Long-term debt maturing 2011-2012 is fixed at av. 4.9% or 88m a year easily serviced from net rental income, plus they had 177m cash at year-end after share buybacks totalling over 80m. Property assets were revalued at 2.33 billion and "the effects of the credit crunch are reflected in the valuer's assumptions." Current discount to FY adjusted NAV is well over 70%. Since year-end they have reduced shares in issue by another 4% which will have offset any further reduction in asset value during H1.

[jonwig] 01/8/2008 07:12

A catch ... the gearing maybe?

[jdhurry] 01/8/2008 02:26

Seems so undervalued been thinking there must be a catch but had a close look and can't see it. Very tempted and will definately have some should they offer sub 0.30. Maybe today...

[jdhurry] 29/7/2008 11:23

Here are the major purchases of 2008 so far:

04/01 QVT Financial Ltd..............................5,500,000
16/01 QVT Financial Ltd..............................5,041,000
...(09/06 DTR announce strategic review)
10/06 Ratio Asset Man. ..............................3,500,000
13/06 Atticus Man. Ltd.................................160,000
25/06 LCF Edmond De Rothschild Banque................1,800,000
25/06 LCF Edmond De Rothschild Banque................4,000,000
25/06 LCF Edmond De Rothschild Banque................1,300,000
25/06 LCF Edmond De Rothschild Banque................2,900,000
...(13/07 Dawnay Day appoints administrators)
14/07 LCF Edmond De Rothschild Banque................8,700,000
15/07 LCF Edmond De Rothschild Banque................9,900,000
15/07 Puma Brandenburg Ltd...........................9,000,000
17/07 QVT Financial Ltd..............................2,300,000
17/07 Ratio Asset Man................................3,500,000
24/07 Duncan Investments Ltd........................12,100,000
25/07 Societe Generale Asset Man.....................2,000,000
25/07 Ratio Asset Man................................2,500,000
25/07 Montpelier Investment Man......................4,800,000
28/07 Montpelier Investment Man.....................12,500,000

[cerrito] 28/7/2008 21:25

jdhurry
I am pretty sure we can go on the basis that if a director or any entity affiliated with him shorted a share that would be reportable just as any change in a long position is.