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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dawnay Day | DTR | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.087 | 01:00:00 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.087 |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 14/1/2009 12:07 by nickcduk Some chunky volume in DTR today. I imagine hedgies are squaring up ahead of a winding up of the company. Only one of the spv will be safe from breaking covenants and the intention was to stop funding them any more. That should mean cash held at parent level is returned to shareholders pretty soon. Can't remember the numbers I calculated a while back but should see a fair bit of upside even from here. |
Posted at 05/12/2008 11:47 by nickcduk Parent level cash is indeed untouchable by the banks but in today's market I am not sure trading near cash is a divine right. There has been some healthy buying in the market. I wouldn't be surprised if some of the activist shareholders get DTR to hand back cash in the short term. Ive had to move up my bid to just over 5c in order to try and get a fill. I imagine I am up against some of the activist shareholders who are looking to bolster their holdings ahead of a potential move. |
Posted at 05/12/2008 08:54 by nickcduk Following my conversation yesterday there will be no more money put into the SPV's. The operating costs are borne from within the SPV's so winding the lot up won't necessarily cost DTR. They explained that they would try and persuade the banks to let them run the assets for them despite the LTV breaches. It would be a huge hassle under German legislation to take control themselves and they are unlikely to be able to run the operating side any more efficiently that DTR currently do. Hence DTR will likely carry on management activities. The 75m euros excludes over 10m of unencumbered properties and around 5m or so a quarter which will flow in until all the SPV's go into cash trap. When that will be will depend on when lenders ask for next set of valuations. They are also looking to take out 10m from one of their facilities which has modest gearing and won't break its covenants. All in they will have around 100m or so at parent company level. That equates to around 16.6c a share. Left a little room for margin and hence my 13-15c estimate as a potential return. |
Posted at 04/12/2008 13:53 by nickcduk When I say winding it up I mean if they just walked away from their investments in the SPV's. 4 out of the 5 are likely to breach or have already breached LTV covenants. At that point the banks can call in their loans. Very little chance of DTR being able to sell their portfolios at around current market value and hence no return is likely from the SPV in the event of the company being wound up. Think of the 13-15c as the worst case scenario. That makes the current share price very attractive and hence why I am looking to load up on them. |
Posted at 02/10/2008 21:47 by paulypilot Hi,Crawford - I'm not really following bulletin boards at the moment (doesn't help, just clouds my judgment with excessive negativity, at a time that could be great to be buying), but stumbled across your post. I sold some of my DTR on the way down, but didn't think the recent results were bad enough to justify the collapse in share price. So I averaged down heavily this week at an average of about 9.6c. At one tenth of NTAV it's gotta be worth a punt. Especially as the funding issues with Covenants don't appear to spell immediate collapse. Also I like the fact that the portfolio still has a rental yield of just under 7% from memory, and that these are in Germany - the big Western economy that DIDN'T have a property boom, didn't have a consumer boom, and is still export-driven. So very very sound fundamentals to the German economy. I hope that the worst of the current credit crisis may be resolved before DTR need to refinance their loans. If so, we could 3 or 4 bag from the current price. That would be nice. But equally got to treat it as high risk now, and could be a 100% loss. Regards, Paul. |
Posted at 02/10/2008 14:27 by kenmitch nickcdukSorry to learn of your big losses. Whilst I agree that positive posts can lead others to invest, fact is that anyone buying anything should do their own research before doing so. I did of course before buying DTR and others in the sector, and at the time was confident all would prove sound investments. Wrong. I thought I knew better than the market re the European Trusts/Investment Companies, in that as some had not experienced a commercial property boom there was no reason for a property bust either unlike in the UK. It's obvious with hindsight that I took too little notice of other negatives that we now all know about. As so often the market was right. I agree with you - though saying that should come with a big health warning after recent events! - that DTR is unlikely to go bust. The same applies with KEIF. If only we had been wise before the event instead of after and only started buying now. Surely in time the share prices today will look as crazily low as many did at the bottom of the 1974 bear market. Trouble is I'm not confident enough yet to buy more DTR or KEIF, and will probably end up averaging down at higher prices when confidence returns. Please don't let this experience put you off posting. You obviously know what you are talking about and I've found your posts a very useful starting point. |
Posted at 01/10/2008 21:55 by nickcduk Ken - I agree my calls have been disastrous on DTR and DDE. Down close to 50k euros so far so it is obviously painful. Has been a complete hatred across the European property sector. KEIF, ALPH and IERE are all examples of huge selling recently.Its strange how sentiment towards UK majors has been quite strong of late and the discounts to NAV much narrower than on their European peers. Had a listen to CAL's interim Q and A. Their German property operation had LTV at end December of around 70%. Not too dissimilar to DTR at that point. They only announced their deal with Apollo 6 weeks ago. I would imagine that during this period DTR were discussing a similar deal for which talks are still ongoing. Obviously market conditions have been grim of late which makes the prospect of a successful conclusion more doubtful than a couple of months ago. I note that Cazenove were selling out yesterday as were Ratio. Cazenove are advising the company on the review so it doesn't inspire confidence. Still huge swathe of sellers yet to fully unload so share price could come under further pressure. I think the shares are now almost option or warrant money. The company won't be going bust anytime soon and if they come through a couple of sticky years the share price will respond accordingly. Apologies if anyone has lost money as a result of my posts on DTR. I haven't tried to ramp the stock and mislead anyone. Fingers crossed it will all come good in the end. |
Posted at 01/10/2008 16:20 by kenmitch I've done that. The share price suggests that they won't get that equity injection. I hope your optimism proves justified. Even if the shares were to double, they would still be well down on the 30 cents I paid only a few weeks ago. I'll be very pleased if proved wrong by being so pessimistic now, but unfortunately doubt that I will be. The only reason I haven't sold is because I've so little left I might as well ride it out and see what happens. Fact is though that your very confident posts about DTR and Develica in the recent past have not stood the test of time or results. As so often the market knows. I'm not scoring points here - my equally enthusiastic posts about KEIF on Mike Walters bb have proved just as wide of the mark. So far news from KEIF does not justify the further falls in the share price. But I now fear that here too the market knows and before long we will be finding out why their shares now languish under 30p.I'm keeping fingers very crossed that unlike DTR, they will not totally cancel the dividend,and might even maintain it, in which case the 20% dividend will do me fine while waiting for the share price to recover. Again I hope the market is wrong about KEIF but the share price is suggesting otherwise. Best to concede errors sometimes rather than clutching at straws? |
Posted at 22/9/2008 22:27 by nickcduk Ken,Keep an eye out for Summit Germany tomorrow (SGL). Similar kind of set up to DTR with gearing about the same. Has confirmed its interim dividend of 2.3c this evening. Trading much higher than DTR despite NAV being roughly the same (40c). Not worried that Aberdeen and Black Rock have been selling. They paid 1 euro or more for their holding. Not exactly the kind of investing track record to inspire confidence. Hence don't pay much heed to it. Expecting shares to bounce to 30c+ if they announce a few disposals and a rolling share buy back. They could initiate a rolling disposal program and use all proceeds to buy back shares over time. You could feasibly end up with considerably over 100c over a couple of years. Fingers crossed that the activist shareholders will push them down this route. |
Posted at 04/9/2008 21:56 by nickcduk Ive been adding a few more yesterday and today. Obviously disappointing that the share price is being trashed. My view on DTR hasn't changed though. There is very deep value in DTR around current levels. Aberdeen have been dumping stock indiscriminately for a while now. Their motives for doing so remain unknown. I am not reading too much into it though. Their track record in DTR is hardly worth shouting about when you consider they purchased stock in the IPO and are nursing heavy losses. The overhang shouldn't be too far from being cleared. Heavy volume today probably knocked a few more million out of their hands. Results are due in the next couple of weeks. It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if they are working through disposals at present. That would explain the delay in results. It's not nice watching losses mount up but I am pretty sure we will be rewarded in due course. |
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