Cyanconnode Share Discussion Threads

[derek ten bag] 07/5/2024 12:37

Thanks for that Multi. Interesting. But back to the good old market. Volume picking up right now but hard to see a pattern in these trades. Be good to know what the current breakdown of buys v sells is. At least the price is holding up, despite a brief nudge lower. I still have some outside my ISA and would like to bring them into it. Just a question of timing. I am hovering at the moment.

[multibagger] 05/5/2024 08:39

O/T

Good morning DTB :)

Though the USA is the pre-eminent country in the world from an economic and military point of view at the moment, China is stealing a march on a number of different fronts at a rate of knots. China is an autocratic dictatorship and have no political considerations to balance in the near term and citizens are faceless and without a voice. They are planning 50-200 years ahead, whereas our Western democracies always have to think in terms of the next general election. So strategic long term thinking comes naturally to them and that's why we will be outdone in the fullness of time. They see Taiwan as an irritating flea that needs to be crushed and openly state that re-unification will happen. I think something like 80% of semiconductors are manufactured in Taiwan - so without the semiconductors sophisticated western defence capabilities will be severely impaired.

With the World needing China as a manufacturing base for the next decade or so at least (before countries can develop reshoring or near shoring in the West), they are learning as to how Russia is dealing with toothless Western sanctions. They are preparing accordingly with increased military spending, AI development, developing a strangle hold on resources from Africa, wooing countries in Oceania etc. Hence the Taiwan issue could flare up a lot sooner than people expect and the US has its military hands full and Trump says that he could/will walk away from other people's wars in making MAGA.

So I am not sure that China sees the USA as being in symbiotic relationship...but more as an elephant that needs to be shown its place. Ideological beliefs have deep roots and the country reacts militarily as to how it sees it has been treated...perceived "humiliation" is one of the biggest reasons...see Germany in WWII, Russia/Ukraine. The firming up of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea into a loose alliance building trade, supplying weapons to each other etc is a worrying development to the West.



Of course, our politicians will not raise such uncomfortable truths with the population.

Interesting times one way or the other...we are mere passengers strapped into a rollercoaster that we didn't ask to ride on !

[derek ten bag] 04/5/2024 17:49

The busier the better, Multi. I feel there will be positive news for CC sooner rather than later to be honest and the audited numbers should, hopefully, overcome the current inertia on AIM. Investment cash has to go somewhere and companies with a strong recurring revenue stream should be an attractive proposition. Who knows? As for the global situation, there is a great deal of stuff going on out there that doesn't quite make sense for me. Let's face it, whatever they say, China and the US are locked, economically into a symbiotic relationship. Neither can really afford to upset the other. And I can't help feeling that China will also have its eyes on some of the Russian assets in Siberia, which will hopefully keep that relationship in check. But who knows? Just my thoughts. IF JC or HP are reading this, next week would be a good one to release some positive news. GLA.

[multibagger] 04/5/2024 14:40

Hi DTB :)

You are right the number of CYAN job openings in Cambridge, UK have been added in April 2024. I take note of these kinds of "leading indicators" and also take note of what skill sets are being sought. From this the direction of travel can be derived when I talk to people in the sector.

Yes I made my first big profit around the dotcom boom - the first 10 years or so before that, I was just learning the ropes and making some money, but also losing a fair bit (tuition fees at the stock market University as I think of it). I did very well out of the dotcom, biotech, gold and commodities, oil, BRICS boom but also been hit several times over the years with economic events/crashes/GFC and recessions.

Like you, I believe that there is a lot, lot more to investing than just reading accounts and spreadsheets !

AIM is going through a very tough time and listing elsewhere barring India is unlikely to be hugely fruitful. A NASDAQ listing is well out of reach for now as there are various criteria that we can't meet.

Also a lot of NASDAQ performance is down to the AI "bubble" at the moment and the froth will settle - however if China moves on Taiwan, all bets are off and the global GDP is estimated to take at least a 10% hit. China loading up on gold is a worrying "lead indicator" to me and could use the weakness of a thinly spread US defence capacity and NATO unpreparedness.

My investing foray into India is predicated that in a very uncertain geopolitical world, India has the size, economic heft, domestic consumption demand to be a relative "investment safe haven". For those not able to directly invest in India, Ashoka India Equity (AIE) is a fund which can offer exposure to that market. I am sure there are others, but I have not really looked into them.

AIM has its own benefits (for the heirs and families) for those who need to consider Inheritance and Estate planning and have sizeable portfolios as many/most AIM stocks would qualify for IHT exemption (potentially).

Water meters will take time to get off the ground IMHO - most countries are focussing on electricity first. The Middle East is very water stressed and they have the oil money and relatively small populations, so they can afford to do both electricity and water meters simultaneously. Also our Comms solutions at that time were retrofits and hence had to straddle the 2 domains.

At this time, pure doing electricity smart meters just in India will be enough to keep us very, very busy !!

[derek ten bag] 04/5/2024 11:35

PS: I may be wrong, but I think the hirings in the UK have increased, if my reading of the Careers section of the website is correct.

[derek ten bag] 04/5/2024 11:09

Yes, the good old days of the dotcom boom and the biotech boom would have seen Cyan way north of today's price, although stocks, at that time, didn't just rise fast, they could fall even faster. But there must come a point when the share price gets completely out of kilter with the actual value of the company, at which point some kind of correction will take place. If the orders do arrive, as you have predicted, and the financials do 'materially improve', as the company have indicated has happened already, I would hope we might get to a point when we could leave AIM and move to the next market level up? Being restricted to AIM doesn't seem to me to be doing us many favours. Apropos the water meters, it would be good to get some information from the company on how that part of the business is progressing, perhaps via a case study.

[multibagger] 04/5/2024 07:03

Good morning DTB :)

An excerpt from an article from The Times, 03 May 2024:

London's junior market needs to sharpen its aim: Dominic O'Connell



May one be blessed with saint like patience ! :)

[derek ten bag] 01/5/2024 11:18

Thanks for that Multi. Putting the financials together must be a nightmare, but doing them on a monthly basis sounds much more sensible and with modern technology it should be easier, if not exactly easy. Let's hope the numbers come through very soon.

O/T I heard Liam Fox at the weekend discussing the potential issues of water shortages and even conflicts. One might hope that our tie up with SEW might bear fruit at some point. The water thing was, I think, mentioned when the recent Thailand deal was announced.

[estienne] 01/5/2024 10:21

Oh yeah well Cyan might be quite profitable if they didn't pay you guys so much to promote them

[multibagger] 30/4/2024 18:37

Good afternoon DTB and all :)

I gather that the Audit process which is tremendously time and resource intensive was done differently in the past and used to be initiated after the end of the FY and took several months and (potentially years off HP's life) due to the complexity and bespoke nature of various contracts. Now I gather that the "Audits" are being done on a monthly basis and therefore more of a running tally - hence a lot quicker as it is an ongoing process.

This is how I believe the "materially exceeds market expectations" was arrived at pretty soon after the close of the FY. With regards to how much (quantum) of a material outperformance, it is possible that this is being delayed/could come down to a defensible interpretation of various Audit or IFRS rules on "revenue recognition" and maybe a second/more senior opinion is being sought ?

Despite stellar results and 80% of 2025 revenues in the bag, what should have been a brilliant day for CYAN share price was overshadowed by the Crux sale of circa 5m shares. Contracts will land definitely, but these are pretty brutal times for investors on the whole and one needs to be patient.

Good luck all !

[derek ten bag] 30/4/2024 16:33

Afternoon Multi,
Read that earlier and it certainly paints a pretty good picture going forward. I think the financials, in particular, give cause for optimism. Do you have any idea when the 'audit' will be complete and we will know the extent of the material overperformance they allude to? Given the significant increase in revenue, I would hope that the need for any fundraising would be lessened. I wouldn't like us to get ahead of ourselves, although the expanded presence in the MENA area makes a lot of sense. It would be good to get another couple of orders under the belt in the near future and, hopefully, another SFA (or two). I still get the feeling we are flying under the radar at the moment and, at some point (ideally soon), our potential will break through to a wider audience. Should that happen to attract predatory interest then I would like the starting point to be far above where we are now, share price wise.

[multibagger] 30/4/2024 16:02

Good afternoon all :)

Kind courtesy of and with many thanks to Vascular on the LSE thread...

[derek ten bag] 25/4/2024 09:36

I think we all agree with Multi, but to be honest, I would sincerely hope we will be far better informed within the next six weeks! Anyway taken my chill-pill along with my daily VitD3.

[stupidboypike] 25/4/2024 09:16

Multi, I’m right there with you. Time to take a chill pill and see what the next 6 months brings as I would imagine we will know a lot more in that time frame.
Best regards SBP

[estienne] 25/4/2024 08:48

Cyan Commode is a high risk precisely because the company has a track record for issuing stock to institutions and leaving private investors diluted. I doubt if there are any long term PI's with holdings more than 10 years who are in profit.

[nilli] 25/4/2024 08:34

Well said Multi. I share your sentiments.

[multibagger] 25/4/2024 07:15

Good morning DTB and all :)

Possibly every investor/trader or "fence sitter" has a theory or hypothesis as to what CYAN corporate action may take place in light of recent announcements, if any at all.

No one knows for sure so it is all speculation IMHO. We all try to join the "dots" (announcements) in a way that makes sense to us given our own subjective perspectives and biases - I am not unique or any different in this regard.

I have called an "Uber Bull" with good reason and I am positively biased towards CYAN and make no bones about it and it may grate on some and the Filter button will silence me :)

There will always be people who "talk their book" depending on what the agenda is at that time and no one holds enough shares to move the market in the longer term. Short term share price volatility comes from poor liquidity and market sentiment and nothing to do with CYAN - in fact the recent results and performance were stellar !

I am a long term, high conviction investor and short term share price "noise" does not bother me nor does what I would consider justifiable dilution if it comes to getting a "smaller slice of a much bigger pie". I am pretty relaxed about these things though for some it seems to cause a severe anaphylactic reaction !

There are loads of ways to make excellent money in the market - though it takes time to figure out what works best for yourself.

So no confusion, vacillation or indecision in my mind....and leave the rest of the BB to it ! Any BB will have a range of views - some which confirm a particular viewpoint and others that challenge/oppose it.

You take your pick !! :)

Good luck all !

[derek ten bag] 24/4/2024 21:52

Well, a day goes by and no-one able to answer either your question or mine DW. And yet, the question of the benefits of a JV in the situation in which we find ourselves is a fair one, especially given that we are selling our product to multiple companies. So how that would work if we have a JV with just one of them is a mystery to me. Let's hope that one or more of the cognoscenti can enlighten us. Also worth asking again, exactly how much additional capital do people think we would need and for what purpose? We seem to be doing pretty well at the moment on existing resources. Clearly, if new orders were to arrive in significant volume there would be a need to source chips etc. but there must surely opportunities to access capital that don't require dilution. I do hope JC and HP don't go down the route of diluting their faithful shareholders to oblivion. Perhaps I am wrong, but I don't get the sense that they would do that. Let's hope not. A big order tomorrow at the back of seven would, hopefully, be enough to settle the nerves. GLA.

[daddy warbucks] 23/4/2024 22:46

What benefit would a jv bring to shareholders?As others have said, we are slowly winning orders by ourselves. What would the jv partner bring to the company?It would be nice if they paid the equivalent of 50p a share for half the company, but if they are not and we also need to raise funds, then I cannot see the point in a jv.

[derek ten bag] 23/4/2024 22:24

I must admit I am getting a bit lost here. There was talk last week of a possible JV involving Adani and Esyasoft, but where does that leave the likes of Genus and Intellismart? One of the selling points that JC frequently talks about is that we are 'vendor agnostic'. Wouldn't a JV tie us to a single company and probably cut out the others. I can't see how that would be a positive way forward. Perhaps you can explain how that would be to our benefit at a time when our revenues are increasing significantly, by all accounts and we are getting orders, albeit slowly, from multiple sources.

[nick the greek 1] 23/4/2024 21:41

MC

Assuming it’s a JV that takes place (of course there are other options available here) then I would anticipate the new entity, partner would want a min of 51%? So really a sale of the Indian business, ie losing control.

Plus about a £10m cash war chest to move forward with?

So a lot of dilution.

JC will take a NE position on the new BoD.

This has been in the ether for years imo.

Let’s see.

[major courtenay] 23/4/2024 21:03

NTG, I don’t expect you to put your neck on the block, but out of interest, would you care to hazard a vague guess at the sort of dilution we could be talking about if you’re right?

Does “diluted to hell” mean losing 30% of the company? 50%?

If memory serves, we’re currently worth over £25 million, so it’s difficult to imagine losing more than 30% “if” the current share price holds, and how the company would justify a bigger loss. Surely a JV would open the door to other sources of capital? If we couldn’t get debt then, when the hell could we?

The appointment of Panmure Gordon has certainly given me pause for thought. The contract sizes I have felt pretty healthy, the rate of landing them, less so. As others have said, politics intervenes.

[stupidboypike] 23/4/2024 16:45

ntg - VERY interesting analysis and looks very plausible - thanks for sharing.

Best regards SBP

[derek ten bag] 23/4/2024 16:42

Thanks for your analysis NTG, albeit rather depressing. I must say I would be very disappointed if the company were to sanction a significant dilution. We are told that revenues will be materially ahead of market expectations and no doubt increasing going forward, much of the management and staffing etc. must, by now, be in place, so why the need for a fundraise at all. I sincerely hope that the company will manage to raise any capital required in a non-dilutive way. I would also be surprised if we don't get some positive news sooner, rather than later. I would be hoping that the SFA approach, which has worked well thus far, would be expanded and involve some of the other large players. JC did, I believe, indicate a week or two back, that he and Heather would be doing an investor presentation very soon. We could certainly do with one. I have capital in place to mitigate some dilution, but I do need to have real proof that it will be money well spent. I am hoping that we have moved beyond the 'jam tomorrow' stage of our development. We shall see, but your analysis is much appreciated.