Cyanconnode Share Discussion Threads

[multibagger] 13/4/2024 17:29

Excerpt from an article in The Times today..."Exodus from the AIM leaves chorus of questions in its wake...."

[inthetin] 13/4/2024 10:14

Welcome back MB - we've all missed you.

[derek ten bag] 13/4/2024 08:44

Morning all. And some truly excellent posts. Good to hear from you Multi and ITT. My optimism, MC, is not unqualified but a balance of everything I have heard and read about the company. Like ITT and Multi, I think we are not far from a point which could be transformational for us (in aa positive way); in addition to the hoped for orders and SFAs I have also said that news that we are profit-making would be significant, as would news that the smart water meters are gaining traction. The hook-up with SEW could yet prove very fruitful. For what it's worth, I have had contact (rarely) with JC and more often with HP and I have been impressed with both. I have great admiration for anyone (no doubt some on here) who have the vision and drive to take a business on and make a success of it. It requires great energy and integrity. My sense is that John and Heather possess these qualities. If the news we all hope for comes through (hopefully soon) and Cyan achieves its potential, as ITT alluded to this morning, I will be delighted, not just for myself and my fellow-travellers on here (and the other site) but also for John and Heather. For the moment anyway, I am keeping the faith.

[multibagger] 13/4/2024 08:23

For those so inclined, "The Last Drop" by Tim Smedley is a very sobering assessment of global trends in freshwater and what we have so far taken for granted in the UK. The reality is very different and scary.

[multibagger] 13/4/2024 08:03

Geopolitically, the Middle East is a tinderbox....let's hope good sense and wisdom prevail, though it feels like very much we are on the threshold of a much larger conflagration.

The next few days and weeks will be hugely important. Good for oil and commodity positions, bad and sad for humanity and the world :(

[multibagger] 13/4/2024 07:54

Good morning nilli and all :)

There are times in the market that are very trying and frustrating. Our current situation epitomises this sentiment. Self doubt can creep in and people could find themselves questioning their own judgement and conspiracy theories abound and BBs are the petri dishes for such theories and offer a ready audience. The doubters fall away or sell out, others keep hand wringing, moaning, mourning or cursing, the gods, the markets or the management. They flip flop at every turn, vacillate and boards become amplifying mechanisms for the Victor Meldrews of the world. I have some on BB filter here as they have nothing meaningful to contribute from my perspective.

I am a market veteran and have seen these kind of periods of before and above all trust and back my own judgement and investing decisions. As I have said many times before my investment time horizons and position sizes are larger than most PIs, so I remain quietly confident and am able to ignore the noise.

I wouldn't have got to where I am financially by quaking at every fractional penny drop and capitulating.

Nothing has occurred that is company specific that is adverse as far as we have been told...Q4 is always about partners/businesses hitting their numbers.

I am not aware of other Comms subcontracts being awarded by AMISP Lead Bidders, so we have not lost out as far as I am aware. A number of smart energy and water initiatives in the Middle East is picking up momentum and we are pretty well aligned with Al Fanar. India is in the throes of elections which will be held in a staggered fashion between April and June. Results out on 4th June and PM Modi expected to comfortably win. Indian stock market is red hot and growth potential is amazing given demographics and expected growth and I won't rule out a mini Indian CYAN IPO at some point in the future.


*CYAN currently hold about 25% of the smart meter market in India
*We have had RNS of circa £15m (my estimate) of contracts this calendar year
*We are in play for a very substantial number of Tenders - about 178m at last count
*India is the most populous and fastest growing major economy in the world (7%+)
*The 5th largest global economy and expected to be number 3 by 2027
* Recent Investor Chronicle (FWIW) article thinks we will smash our revenue forecasts
*250m smart meters to be rolled out just in India alone and then there is RoW to play for
*The freshwater of the world is in a precarious position - smart water meters will come in play in a much bigger way and we already have the tech and are implementing in UAE

.....I could go on and on.......it is indeed unfortunate that people feel so despondent about our company.

People need to do their research...as electricity underpins all economic growth and water is an existential necessity for life.

Patience is a virtue and a necessary discipline to be successful in the stock market and good things come to those who wait having done their research and invested accordingly !

I look to forward to contracts, they will come I am sure and it is only a matter of time. Indian elections should not affect the awards that have been finalised IMHO.

Good luck all :)

[inthetin] 12/4/2024 23:16

Zeus valued Cyan at £70M in March 2023 and they also said:-

"Zeus feel this is a conservative estimate of the businesses value as it assumes no new significant market opportunities arise over the forecast period (i.e. to 31/03/2026)."

From the quick look that I took at Zeus's 12/02/2024 report (i.e. 2 months ago), they have maintained their revenue forecasts, being £16M for FY24 and £35M for FY25.

Assuming that the 15p warrants are exercised before May'25 and we have say 330M shares, the £70M valuation equates to 21p per share.

In the same March 2023 report, Zeus also say that Cyan has a blue-sky multiple valuation (whatever that means) of £105M.

£105M ÷ 330M shares = 31p per share.

My guess is (and I have said this before) that Cyan will beat market expectations for FY24 and that this latest 'storm' is a fabrication.

GLA

ITT

[major courtenay] 12/4/2024 23:11

Derek, your optimism is magnificent. I invested in Torotrak, Globo and Vialogy, so I sometimes let my experience get the better of me. I hope for all our sakes you’re right.

[nilli] 12/4/2024 21:54

I also hope Multi can make some contributions in this matter. Hopefully he has not sold out!!

[nilli] 12/4/2024 21:53

Being a very long term holder myself I totally understand the frustration and anger with the way the management conducts itself to us the shareholders. However I do think that selling at these low levels does not make sense. Let’s assume we get a bid tomorrow, it certainly would not be under 50M valuation, which I think is really cheap for a product that is already proven. What we really need is John Cronin & Co to lay their cards on the table and show us the bigger picture.
GLA

[derek ten bag] 12/4/2024 17:53

PS: can anyone explain to me how we ended up when there were two trades of 400k and 600k at 7.30p. the lowest level of the day that were listed on the other site as 'unknown'. They looked like sells, but could they have been buys. Just curious.

[derek ten bag] 12/4/2024 15:55

It's very disappointing to see so many of the greats on here sounding so negative. I suspect that the fact that we are at the sharp end of the orders process now and have new entrants getting involved, without our years of experience in the Indian market and perhaps keen to gain an insight into our product, we are quite sensibly trying to keep a higher level of confidentiality than was perhaps the case even a year ago. I think John's article was simply a statement of his belief, which I would support, that we must not compromise on quality. That should be the USP of our product. We need to do that and still be competitive on price. Is that possible? Let's hope so. A good update perhaps indicating that we have achieved profitability would be good, as would be a significant SFA with one (or more) of the big boys. It is needed soon though. Seems to have been a bit of a turn up in the past half hour. Not sure that the company could have done much to arrest the recent slide though. It is what it is. There are clearly still buyers out there willing to take a punt on CC. Hope it's a bit more than a punt.

[major courtenay] 12/4/2024 11:15

Re Tightfist comment: The problem is, on AIM that is more commonly an indicator of bad news rather than good.

[stupidboypike] 12/4/2024 11:14

thanks for sharing NTG, There seems to me only 2 explanations,
1. Bad news they are trying to hide
2. Imminent takeover making them very worried about communicating anything.

I have been bullish about CyanCannode for around the last 5 years. However, my patience has really come to an end. I suspect if I were more sensible I would follow your lead NTG and sell a large % of my holding. It's very difficult to admit you got it wrong, but anyone who has been holding this stock over the last 3 years certainly got the timing wrong, me very much included. Just for some balance I did buy some shares at 2p, 4 years ago which clearly are still in profit (at the minute!!!!!)

Best regards SBP

[tightfist] 12/4/2024 10:48

Hi NTG; Thanks for your on-the-ground update from India. In the past they have frequently blamed customer inaction on the imminent elections.... Not explicitly so this time? .I also conclude they have something's to hide, it seemed to start with the AGM débâcle last August AFAIAC. What it is anyone's guess; I am thinking they don't want to invite even a sniff of inside knowledge. tightfist

[beeezzz] 12/4/2024 10:09

Well last few months have been disappointing, regarding share price slowly edging down everyday.

TU last year was beginning of July so we could have a wait for news....

[estienne] 12/4/2024 09:57

As I said it has further to fall. The question as to how far I can't answer

[inthetin] 12/4/2024 08:44

Hi NTG1

My guess is that you have served your purpose and are no longer required. You can hold or sell your 2nd hand shares as far as Cyan are concerned - it makes no odds to them.

Fundraising is over, which puts you in the Cyan redundant category.

News could pop out at any moment, which could be on Monday or in 12 months time.

IMO, you either hold and suck it up or you sell and perhaps be caught with your pants down when news does eventually come and you want back in.

GL

ITT

[nick the greek 1] 12/4/2024 08:20

I came back from an annual trip to India a few weeks ago and after being adamantly refused access to our offices over there for an annual progress update by Cronin I became very concerned about our position.

Last year I went and was very well received by Ratna Garapati and I came away feeling very bullish about our potential.

This year and largely because of Cronin’s refusal I became very sceptical, why on earth would you not allow a large (potentially larger) investor to see progress on the ground assuming it was positive?

It made me wonder if they have something to hide and even if not I don’t like lack of transparency.

I consequently sold a lot of stock.

Also because in general I feel not much will happen orders wise until the election is concluded in early June, even then it will likely take i while to kick off again, assuming it does of course.

There could be an SFA come in at any time of course or something similar, even another order but looking at the BoDs (lack of) actions over the the drop from 13p to 7p I doubt there’s anything they can do, this morning’s RNS non is also rather disappointing in my book, they haven’t got a clue how to manage an AIM company imo.

Still huge potential here but in general progress is much slower than anticipated and the way the company is marketed to its shareholders (and potential shareholders) is amateurish to say the least in my opinion.

Turn off the screen and leave a buy order in for 5 - 6p seems to be the likely way forward.

Good luck all.

[nick the greek 1] 12/4/2024 07:45

Well you have to hand it to management -
they sure know how to handle a collapsing share price - announce 3 days of larging it up in the Middle East should work wonders to stop the incessant seller.

The man is quite the character he really is.

[markingtime] 11/4/2024 17:53

Clearly a long line of stock that has been for sale.....looks as if they may have found the clearing price?

[derek ten bag] 11/4/2024 16:53

Definitely some smoke and mirrors going on here. We won't, unfortunately, benefit from ITT's thoughts on the matter; he's off on his sabbatical. May not hear from him for another, what.....ten minutes?

[illiswilgig] 11/4/2024 15:46

I bought at 7.69 a few hours ago

[derek ten bag] 11/4/2024 15:11

Given that I've just been quoted 7.67p to buy, I'm wondering just how many of these trades may be buys rather than sells. Can anyone clarify?