Creo Medical Share Discussion Threads

[dr biotech] 01/5/2024 09:49

Porky

What “massive contracts” and “massive upfront costs” are you referring to?

Please enlighten me

[master investor] 01/5/2024 08:36

Coming on a board and de ramping a company is quite desperate. Suggesting the share price will drop to 15p is laughable.Come back in a month and we will continue this discussion. I would suggest you do more research.

[porky9] 01/5/2024 06:11

@Master Investor
And you know that because.....

Going out on a limb here, as current 35p share price level holding well but i recon i will still be able to get my 15p buy in target later this year before any uplift comes, they wont get BE without more cash is my call. Lets see if i'm proven wrong.

From my experience investing in other healthcare stocks where they intend to win major NHS and private health sector deals, irrespective of the possible financial advantages from saved time, it will take significantly longer to win these contracts simply because there is a massive upfront cost and training time and cost to change. Not to mention the gestation period to get a deal from creation of tender process to a decision to actually go with it - snail pace progress for these sorts of decisions is understatement of the year.

The albatross around CREOs neck is the cost of sales. The current cash burn to deliver the sales they have is ridiculous. I know they talk about ultimately bringing cash burn down but we are yet to see material proof of that.

Otherwise, bloody good tech that will make a difference, that's why this remains on my watch list but im in no hurry, with a £130m mcap whilst losing over £16m a year on £31m of sales and a dwindling cash reserve its currently more than fully priced imo.

But good luck to the bulls here

[peterrr3] 30/4/2024 18:54

Thanks doc, good find.

[dr biotech] 30/4/2024 16:00

hxxps://www.shropshirestar.com/news/uk-news/2024/04/30/hope-for-robotics-to-help-diagnose-and-treat-lung-cancer-in-one-procedure/

They do get a mention is this version though..

[dr biotech] 30/4/2024 15:23

hxxps://news.sky.com/story/robotics-could-be-used-to-diagnose-and-remove-lung-cancer-in-patients-in-one-sitting-medics-says-13125645

Results have been "generally positive". I haven't looked into these in too much detail, but I'm guessing that the patients are probably towards the more poorly end of the spectrum. Its good that the first patient seems to be doing well.

Would have been nice if Creo had a mention, but I guess those that are potential customers would be able to find out easily enough.

[master investor] 30/4/2024 14:38

There won't be another raise.

[dr biotech] 30/4/2024 12:59

There is another bit in that proactive interview where the CEO says they received some positive regulatory news. Not sure what that refers too as the don't seem to have RNSd it. I guess they may be saving up some positive but not immediately impactful news for the results.

[hatfullofsky] 30/4/2024 12:29

They certainly pay themselves well

[pacsltd] 28/4/2024 19:11

Dear Porky,

All that money and they still live like pigs.

Q) Who is that then ?
A) Pinky and Perky

Good luck old chap.

[porky9] 28/4/2024 18:22

Wow, I’m guessing you don’t invest in many stocks these days?

What BODs don’t say is often more important that what they do say.

The last set of figures released did NOT indicate to me that there was some sort of guarantee here. It is an estimation, plain and simple. I’m not suggesting Directors are trying to mislead but, please don’t take what they say as gospel. Business is Business, from my own analysis I believe they will need more capital to reach BE, I can’t see how it’s possible based on the last set of figures, that’s my opinion, you are obviously entitled to disagree with me that’s the whole point of these discussion boards.

Good luck with your investment anyhow, you might prove me wrong as I say, I personally just don’t see it.

[pacsltd] 28/4/2024 17:52

Porky, CREO had a raise just over a year ago. So do you think the directors told porkies (excuse the pun) when they suggested at the time:-

"The Company is pursuing the Fundraising in order to raise sufficient funds to maintain momentum in the business building on the success of 2022 and the milestones that it has achieved since IPO.
The Fundraising is intended to enable the Company to progress into the next stage of the development and commercialisation of its minimally invasive electrosurgical devices, and the Directors expect that the Fundraising will provide the Company with a pathway to being cash flow break even and, ultimately, to profitability as well as give comfort to existing customers, suppliers and partners of increased balance sheet strength.
...
The Group continues to progress towards profitability with revenues continuing to grow and the intensive investment product development and launch phase coming to an end. Material reductions in operating costs have contributed to a reduced underlying EBITDA loss for FY22 compared to FY21, which is expected to be in-line with market expectations. Management considers that this combination of strong core product revenue growth and active cost control means that the business is well-positioned to further reduce cash burn in FY23 and remains on track for EBITDA break even during FY25, also in-line with market expectations."

So is Porky suggesting that CREO directors got it wrong or misled the institution and private investors a year ago? Just saying.

[porky9] 28/4/2024 16:59

I don’t need to understand this specific technology to read a P & L and establish the odds of CREO making BE before the cash runway is out.

My view is it will be so dam close they will be running on fumes even if they hit the growth expectations and that’s simply because the cost base is obscene frankly. The cost of sales far too high. Hence, they would be better off to raise before things get desperate. Most businesses in that position will raise IMO.

IF the next raise demonstrates that it will be enough to get into profits I will take a position then. As it stands I’m in no rush to buy at this level as I put the odds of a dilutive raise at 99% odds on.

Hope I’m proven wrong but I doubt it

[dr biotech] 28/4/2024 16:36

Please take Creo off your watchlist porky.

As you have previously made clear, you don't understand the tech nor the opportunity. Why its on your watchlist at all is a mystery.

I think finances could get close - next 6-18 months will be key - but think the opportunity is much, much larger. How much better would endoscopic lung surgery be rather than opening up the chest? This weeks PR about the cost savings involved vs previous treatments has already shown the far superior clinical pathway.

The CEO said last years momentum has continued into this year. It will be interesting to see what level that is - keeping in line with broker forecasts would be decent.

[pacsltd] 28/4/2024 13:03

You are going to have a long wait as it will never be 20p again. There are strong indications that they easily have enough cash to get to profit and will not need another placing.

[porky9] 28/4/2024 12:47

Still on my watch list

But looking for an entry point 15-20p and i believe i will get it at the next placing as they will need more cash for sure to reach BE. I genuinely cant see how its possible to be avoided.

VERY long term potential strong, at the current share price i feel its fully priced and some. I'm not a buyer at 35p the ROI potential not strong enough and BE a long long way off.

Time will tell.

[dr biotech] 25/4/2024 16:05

Cavendish/Numis have issued 99/100p targets here. Always take house brokers opinions with a dose of salt though.

However if they can show they are on track for sales and then demonstrate that lung ablation has a clinical benefit then the sky's the limit.

The Trust report should be written up and sent to all the other UK trusts and others where they have reps. There really is little downside to its use, apart from the initial purchase and the training. Payback would be a few months (depending on usage).

Added a few more today, that will be it though. Now 3.5% of my total, which is enough for a company of this profile.

[peterrr3] 25/4/2024 14:05

Thanks Cerrito, if between Hat and yourself is the rough range, that will do for now. As indicated before very likely to get a decent line of credit if running a bit short with firm sales but delayed cash flow.

[nimbo10] 25/4/2024 11:42

Lots of buying ahead of expected good trading and business progression, as indicated by Dr Biotech link 641 message.

[peterrr3] 25/4/2024 08:45

On an organisation that is a bit more functional, from Wipo it looks like there was progress on about 10 international patents in March, no knock backs which is always good.

[peterrr3] 25/4/2024 08:28

I wouldn't hold your breath on NICE they haven't even got a start date. I am not sure it will be such a block to sales as they are just starting to review robotics, having noted they are now in common use globally with 1.5 million procedures a year.

[dr biotech] 24/4/2024 19:15

This is worth 5mins. CEO interview on proactive - following points

Study was independent of Creo. NHS supply chain is also independent of NICE but should help push things along. Study shows some excellent cost savings but actual savings would be higher as it doesn't analyse follow up costs. Outcome for patients is better.
Should really help reduce waiting lists as it frees up beds and consultant time.

Sales rise seen last year has continued into this year "sales of core products up 250% last year we have seen that continue" (as a note of caution I think sales last year were up a mere 150%)- positive about pulmonary.

I think this is the company I have invested in the most mentally. Dangerous thing to do. Financially its about 2% of my holding, I could double that if the results are on track, but bitter experience is the investments I have like the most have performed the worst (not always, but Bios have been mostly dreadful).

[cerrito] 24/4/2024 13:31

Going back to cash flow discussion of earlier today,FWIW Cavendish forecast a cash flow deficit of £400k next year and £13m of cash at December 2025

[hatfullofsky] 24/4/2024 13:23

peterrr3 - Gulliford is no scientist he was an early investor

Craig has over 25 years’ experience in building international businesses from early stage through to significant scale. In January 1999, Craig joined a start-up software and hardware business where, as COO, he was part of a small team that grew the Company both organically and through acquisition, from a loss-making start-up to a profitable business delivering significant shareholder returns and an exit in 2007.

If anything he'll be polishing the company for an exit at some point but the pay themselves very handsomley

[innnovate] 24/4/2024 12:07

Today’s RWE announcement describing positive health economics for the SSD use case is certainly good news. How the collaborative dataset with NHS Supply Chain’s ‘Value Based Procurements’ team influences procurement on the individual Trust level in the absence of NICE recommendation I’m not sure. Perhaps this dataset is what NICE has been waiting for before advancing its MTEP process beyond ‘Awaiting development’. Either way, another box ticked on the long and narrow NHS adoption pathway.