There is a new interview with the Chair here. Met him briefly last year, seemed quite personable. Has also put his money where his mouth is
hxxps://www.edisongroup.com/edison-tv/creo-medical-creo-medical-executive-interview/BM-1390/ |
I had high hopes for CREO but I have now lost confidence and am out. The issue for me was not whether the product is good or not - I think that it probably is and will eventually get a reasonable level of adoption. It is rather a lack of understanding of the business model. Given the R&D costs to date, the trial/training costs, plus a high overhead burden, how many do they need to sell each year, and at what price/margin to turn a decent profit? Is there any repeat business (for example consumables or maintenance contracts) and what value do these bring? Is there any sort of meaningful moat or can the big boys ride free on the coattails of their research. On the last point if the IP is meaningful then they could mount an opportunistic takeover, whiz at the moment is the only way I can see meaningful value being realised. IMHO. |
Looks like the Equador clinical trial is underway given a longYouTube training video just released. |
Updated Croma approved in presale application by the FDA 5 Feb. Essentially the same, some power variances but interestingly the screen replacement with LCD now having the functionality to pick up Chinese and Japanese characters.https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/cdrh_docs/pdf24/K242983.pdf |
This is the registration of the lung trial in London. https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06869122?term=Creo%20medical&rank=1 |
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MM: How will you continue to scale the business? CG: One way is to train the key opinion leaders across our main market, the US, starting with the pioneering surgeons. They help us to refine techniques and skills, and they also produce clinical data, which we can publish as evidence. These surgeons can train others, who in turn train others.Achieving this dense network is vital. We're continuing to make the devices easier to handle, which makes it easier for surgeons to pick up the technique. And with increasing regulatory clearance in Asia-Pacific markets, we're extending our global reach. |
MM: What made Speedboat so successful?CG: Chris designed a tool where the current flows between two poles, confining it to the instrument itself. Before this, RF surgery was monopolar. It applied over a thousand volts to the diseased tissue, passing the current through the organ to a return pad placed under the buttocks to complete the circuit.But it was hard to direct the current, which naturally takes the path of least resistance. This made tissue burning and sticking together a huge challenge. With Speedboat, it's the design of the instrument that determines where the current goes. That allows us to make a very sharp, precise little 'blade', usually at less than a tenth of the voltage used in monopolar surgery.This localised current flow is confined to the instrument itself. These tools can get into very tight spaces and remove things with absolute precision that would otherwise have to be taken out by invasive surgery or just left there. Both can have negative consequences.MM: What further uses are you discovering?CG: One example is in the oesophagus [gullet], where the lining can be damaged by acid reflux, necessitating the removal of two or three centimetres of diseased tissue. With more primitive microwave and RF technology, it left scar tissue, so the patient had to go back up to 20 or 30 times to have the gullet dilated with a kind of balloon to avoid having a feeding tube.With Speedboat, the precision is such that you don't scar the underlying muscle. So after 12 weeks, the oesophagus is almost entirely back to normal. You've thus saved the NHS up to 3 repeat endoscopy appointments. That time can now be freed up to diagnose others, potentially saving lives. |
I doubt that very much. |
That pump did not last long. Well and truly over |
Runway to 2027 and profitable in 2028 is the key takeaway for me. Meanwhile we can expect a new core product soon per the social media teasers. I assume this is one of their more recent patents or what will form the basis of the 2025 cost reductions or both. |
Thanks. Think thats actually a decent note from Edison, seems to have a bit more understanding about the products and partnerships than the previous one. |
New Edison note... |
I don't think it has. |
Edison used to be more on the ball than they currently are. I think it’s a waste of 60k. They haven’t covered the recent results or last years placing. Seem to be lightweight puff pieces. I’d rather they did more investor meets.
However it’s difficult as a small cap to get your message out. Hopefully some decent trial results will generate their own news |
Protrader Edison is not the house broker but they got paid £60k last year to say nice things so you would expect that arrangement has continued. |
Well I got burnt on sell the news last year, so I did it myself this year and am sitting on the fence with a small remaining holding. If there's a spike down definitely no risk buying but as with you I need sales and trial progress and I reckon some time away. |
Well this is disheartening. Current valuation is equal to Cash plus the valuation of the remaining consumables business. Core products valued at 0. Still think we could be some time off getting the core products moving too unfortunately. I continue to hold, won't add unless there is a significant RNS |
Worth noting that Edison is not the official broker for CREO. |
This update from Edison last week is freely available.
It concludes with...
"Revised guidance from management indicated that following the divestiture, break-even is now likely to be achieved in 2028 versus 2025 previously. We await further updates on this with the forthcoming FY24 results announcement." |
And finally this. I'd say I'd rather they were missing on the lower margin consumables and over performing on the core products. However overall sales are somewhat underwhelming particularly compared to their forecasts of 2-3 years ago. I continue to hold (full disclosure I reduced my holding last year). For me the real key will be in the Intuitive partnership, should the trials be positive and Intuitive decide to promote it to their many clients then it may really start to build.
- Shares in Creo Medical Group PLC on Monday fell after it said full-year revenue would be below market expectations.
The Chepstow, Wales-based medical device company expects to report sales of GBP30.4 million in the year to December 31, down 1.3% from GBP30.8 million a year prior.
Chris Donnellan, director of research at Cavendish Securities noted this was below his GBP31.3 million forecast.
Creo reported a 74% increase in Creo Core Technology revenue to GBP4.0 million from GBP2.3 million, with GBP2.4 million of sales in the second half, representing 50% growth half-on-half.
Donnellan said this was ahead of his GBP3.4 million projection.
Creo Core Technology revenues include sales from all core products such as Speedboat UltraSlim and Croma platform and significant new customer additions during the period.
The sales shortfall arose in Creo Medical Europe Consumables revenue, Donnellan explained, where revenue is expected to drop to GBP26.4 million from GBP26.8 million, reflecting some forex headwinds in the period. Donnellan had expected revenue to pick up to GBP27.9 million.
In response, shares in Creo Medical were 7.4% lower at 17.50 pence each in London early Monday afternoon.
Creo said actions to reduce costs in the second half of the year resulted in a decrease in operating costs of around GBP5.0 million with the full benefit to come through in financial 2025.
The start to the year has been positive and the company is trading in line with management expectations, it added.
Donnellan said he remains "positive on the shares and confident in Creo's technology and the benefits it can deliver to patients, care providers and investors."
B |
Worthwhile post from another board. I can't verify the accuracy, but the poster seems decent enough
Please find the following research summary for Creo Medical, from Cavendish and Deutsche Numis, following the Company’s trading update issued this morning.
Cavendish reiterates 70p target price: “Creo Medical has provided trading update for FY24, noting core Creo revenues grew 74% to £4.0m (FY23: £2.3m) versus our forecast £3.4m. Creo has reduced its operating costs through 2024, resulting in a decrease of c£5.0m, with the full benefit expected in FY25. Last week, the sale of a 51% stake in Creo Europe was completed and the cash (c€30m) was received on 14 Feb 2025. Management notes that trading in 2025 is in line with its expectations. We remain positive on the shares and confident in Creo’s technology and the benefits it can deliver to patients, care providers and investors.”
Deutsche Numis reiterates Buy recommendation and 45p target price: “The surgical endoscopy and advanced energy company expects sales of £30.4m for FY24 (DBe £31.6m). Core technology sales of £4m are in line with expectations growing 76%, benefiting from significant new customer additions in the year. H2 sales of £2.4m grew 50% over H1. The Consumables business grew 3% on CER (DBe 3%), but due to FX headwinds delivered sales of £26.4m, a touch light of expectations (DBe £27.6m). The disposal of 51% of the Consumables business has completed and the cash was received last week. FY25 has started positively and a fuller update will be provided at FY24 results in April.” |
Still too rich. |
Happy enough. GLA |
As always a bit of a mixed bag that needs a bit of digging to see the real picture..
Core sales of 2.4m Up 50% on H1 but flat when compared to 2.3m H2 2023.
Costs down 5m. Sounds impressive, but I’d like to know where the savings have been made. The costs with the consumables division will drop (as will the turnover) as it is owned by their partners.
Kampative revenues of 0. As flagged with changes to the agreement. Does that mean they have zero users? What about CMR?
Current trading inline with management expectations. Whatever that is.
Cash seems decent |
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