Creo Medical Share Discussion Threads

[someuwin] 08/2/2024 14:35

Nothing wrong with asking valid questions. Especially if it elicits helpful and clarifying answers as has happened here.

[74tom] 08/2/2024 13:51

Given @someuwin set up this thread, I can't believe they think that Edison note is correct / worth posting. They were ramping like mad last summer & as recently as December were talking about a buyout this year. Yesterday I noted their narrative had changed to criticising Creo as revenue cadence didn't match user growth, when the answer why is blatantly obvious. Let me guess, bought in after the placing last year at 20p, ramped and held until the recent spike to 50p, now looking to create FUD to get back in lower. All a little too blatant...

[master investor] 08/2/2024 13:28

Correct. Read what the company is telling the market or email them if you can't understand the information. There is not going to be a raise this year.

[master investor] 08/2/2024 10:33

This is inaccurate

[master investor] 08/2/2024 10:32

Could you share where you have obtained this info from please?

[master investor] 08/2/2024 10:22

They don't need another raise. They are funded through until next year. They will more than likely be sold by then anyway.

[porky9] 08/2/2024 05:51

This one is on my watch list, love what they do cant fault that but on the financials i think another raise short term is odds on before they get to break even. I just don't see it happening without more cash especially having missed the revenue targets and cash burn remaining as high as it is. Had they not missed the targets i would be more confident.

Also, the current £135m Mcap looks very high to me and i cant see it holding. My upside potential at 37p looks limited. Last raise at 20p was it? IF they issue more stock at 20p I would possibly take a position but not at this mcap whilst cash burn remains so high despite decent revenues.

I think i need to be more confident they can secure the increased revenue they need and proof the operating costs wouldn't go up massively go up to deliver that revenue to reach the BE point.

As i say, love what they are doing, just the financials that hold me back from taking a reasonable position here. Good luck though if you are backing this one.

[cyberbub] 07/2/2024 22:52

It's delayed payment for acquiring some companies in the past. £15m of their cash balance will have been paid out for this, so Edison assume they will have to raise £15m to replace that, to maintain their runway to breakeven.

[dr biotech] 07/2/2024 22:50

No I hadn’t. It gets a mention in the FY results too. It’s not entirely obvious what it’s for either. I thought the Albyn purchase was settled early last year?

I don’t see why they would need to sell 100m shares at 32p to raise £15m either.


Edison is paid for research so it’s often just a bit of puff, but they will get some guidance from the company.

[someuwin] 07/2/2024 20:19

Dr Bio, Have you seen this Edison note from 14th Sept last year?

Under Valuation, they say how CREO will have to raise £15m this year for 'settlement of deferred and contingent liabilities associated with the acquisitions of Aber Electronics, Albyn Medical and Boucart Medical'. I haven't seen this mentioned elsewhere and not sure I understand it?

[dr biotech] 07/2/2024 19:52

In the interview he does hint that there may be alternative avenues of funding should things get tight. As long as they show they have growth and breakeven is in sight I think we'll be OK. Not without risk of course

[joshrf] 07/2/2024 19:47

Can intuitive send these boys a big cheque in the post so they can get going ...

[dr biotech] 07/2/2024 17:03

Interview with ceo

[hatfullofsky] 07/2/2024 16:14

Near term drivers :

NICE due Q1 24
EU Approval Q1 24

[cyberbub] 07/2/2024 15:42

People are missing the wood for the trees here. The IP is excellent, the margins are high, the market is enormous, and sales are growing rapidly albeit from a low base. It's only a matter of time before profitability is achieved. You shouldn't rate Creo on a p/e basis at this time IMO.

[dr biotech] 07/2/2024 15:21

Just looked at the Edison note from Dec and that was predicting revenue of £32.8m so the figures are a little light. so the drop is understandable. They were/are predicting £40.8 for this current year (not updated yet)

I used to sell scientific instruments, and predicting sales figures was an absolute nightmare. We had a turnover of several million through a multitude of local distributors throughout Europe and south Asia but generally speaking we had no idea what the next months figures would look like. Some customers would buy on seeing them, others would have to get a budget for it (3-6months) and others would promise orders but then disappear into the ether. I guess there is a similar issue here - some hospitals will have budgets etc and some clinicians will be keener than others.

We often used to just guess - look at last years figure and add 5% unless there were exceptional items. Good enough to satisfy our suppliers, not really good enough for a PLC

[scrutable] 07/2/2024 11:00

The share price has fallen sharply on the simple fact of the start-up losses. But the market has not priced in the astonishing forecasts implicit in the marketing potential and rapidity of acceptance wherever Speedboat has been introduced. This bodes well immediately.

Beginning in Europe six months ago, but then in one great move since December '23, USA, Latin America and most recenty ASIA (Hong Kong) have all, in marketing terms, been 'inseminated'. The rapidity of take up and implementation surpasses anything I have ever met in a lifetime of International marketing: (from today's RNS)175 confirmed users at the end of H2 '2023. This is an increase of c.120% over the 80 as at 31 Dec 2022 and a 30% increase over the 115 as at 30 June 2023. Management remains confident that this growth trajectory will continue during 2024,

To requote a cnsultant at Oldham Hospital: Having attended Creo's 'Pioneer' training programme and installed devices across multiple endoscopy rooms immediately, the hospital performed five SSD cases in its first afternoon, with over thirty further patients successfully treated Within weeks of release, the device had been used by 16 doctors across 12 sites.

Every statistic reflective of success at Creo has beens exponential and the largest markets have only just begun their yield in the last two months

"The Speedboat® UltraSlim improvement in size, energy delivery and handling will allow me to do more cases." "This new device will make my procedures faster and I can perform a POEM and Fundoplication with one Speedboat versus three total devices."delivering excellent patient outcomes and at a significantly lower cost to the Trust.

Even the current applcations inside the human body to upper gastrointestinal use (e.g. swallowing disorders, oesophageal and stomach cancers) are likely to increase in scope to the lung,liver and pancreas etc multiplying the global potential overall

[cerrito] 07/2/2024 10:05

I note that H2 revenue was £15.1m and was expecting it to have been more than the £15.7m in H1 23.
Would have thought that in whole year 2023 the improvement in the gross margin would have been bigger.
Reassured that Cavendish see net cash at December 2025 at £13.1m

[idomeneo] 07/2/2024 09:41

From the Cavendish note today: "We believe Creo Medical is undergoing a significant inflection point in its development, with an increasing number of core Creo device users undertaking procedures on a regular basis, two Kamaptive licensing agreements announced and regional expansion of its consumables business underway. Creo remains on-track to achieve breakeven cash flow and EBITDA performance in 2025."

[master investor] 07/2/2024 09:23

I took advantage of that drop. Another 80k added to the pot.

[dr biotech] 07/2/2024 09:18

Think thats fair enough. The company forecasts can be found on their website (link below). It needs a bit of guesswork as the graphs aren't labelled (p13/15).

Key thing of course is getting as close to breakeven as possible. If they can raise sales quick enough to show a clear path to profitability raising a small amount won't be an issue. If it falters, then we'll get walloped.





hxxps://www.creomedical.com/assets/uploads/media/2023/12/corporate-presentation-march-2023.pdf