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Centamin Egypt Share Discussion Threads
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I've spent quite some time reading though the company presentations as well as previous results. It does look to me like there's a fair amount of up side from here.
All the company forecasts are ( rightly) on the conservative side given actual production rates being achieved and it would seem to me that full year results ahead of the guidance of 520-540k oz are likely. Q3 ytd was 414k oz, and q4 should be 140k, making 554k in total.
I'm guessing that current cash and equivalents stand at about £300m, so with a market cap of £1.8b, enterprise value is at £1.5b.
Assuming profit of £200m (I think they will beat this), you're left with a p/e of 7.5. I'm sorry but that's far too low given the very likely resource increases we can expect in the next 6 months.
I can see this re-rating to £2+ based on fundamentals alone.
Anyone able to comment on my assumptions?|
|world class gold deposit ...
But not world class valuation for this stock|
|either way I think we can agree appreciation in Share price tracks dividend growth.|
|"don't know about 100% increase in the divi but 30-50% looks probable and comfortable."
Centamins dividend policy: "between 15 and 30% of net free cash flow".
I have gone through my maths properly & listed the details below. I'm interested in any disagreements / corrections you or anyone might have.
10 Aug 2016 Interim USX 2.00
21 Mar 2016 Final USX 1.97
12 Aug 2015 Interim USX 0.97
23 Mar 2015 Final USX 1.99
14 Aug 2014 Interim USX 0.87
(Announcement dates, US cents, from ADVFN)
Data Used with sources:
The interim was hiked from 0.97c to 2c.
Production guidance is "towards the upper end of our guidance range of between 520,000 and 540,000 ounces" (RNS 5/10/16).
"Recovery of 89.5%" (RNS 10/8/16).
"cash cost of production of between US$530 and US$550" (RNS 10/8/16).
I could have used AISC but this includes capital costs that are already paid for so shouldn't affect profits.
Average price of gold sales (guess on my part, trying to be pessimistic): 1200$ per oz.
Shares in issue 1151.11m (ADVFN).
530koz * 89.5% = 474,350 oz.
* $1200 = %569.22m turnover.
530koz * $550 = $291.5m costs.
$569.22 - $291.5 = $277.72m profit.
$277.72 / 1151.11 shares = $0.24 profit per share.
15% used for dividends = $0.36
30% used for dividends = $0.72
Stripping out the interim of 2c results in a final dividend of 1.6c to 5.2c.
Keeping in line with the doubling of the interim would suggest 3.94c which fits neatly into that guidance.|
|don't know about 100% increase in the divi but 30-50% looks probable and comfortable.
This from what I have gleaned from company pronouncents
Chart looks promising too|
I was looking at the dividend this morning.
So far, CEY have paid a final dividend that is approximately twice that of the interim...and as we know they hiked the interim by 100%.
So, I wanted to check the company could afford to pay approximately 4 US cents as a final dividend whilst still keeping withing their stated percentages of return to investors. I didn't go to town but my back-of-a-fag-packet maths showed that they could.
This also means that the yield is very good and also maintainable whilst still putting circa 70% of cash to one side for future projects.
I see a golden future for CEY :-)|
|There are those who look for divi growth
Not just yield.
This stock set to have both this year.|
|I'm with you on the outlook for gold dmitri. The legendary bull run has been and gone for gold miners. I'm down to 5% exposure.
On the other hand, Commodities, other than precious metals, will continue the bull run this year AND next IMHO :-)
Pile into Mining/Oil if you're not already in for a happy 2017 :-)|
|Sold out 155 yesterday, still dont like look of gold chart :-/|
|Good morning all :-)
Looking forward to another fruitful week in the markets :-)
Happy days chaps :-)|
|G'day dmitri :-)
That trgt will make Leo rather a lot of money :-)|
|250p is my trgt|
|Tech indicators coming up from oversold position. We should get another run up in SP|
|It's that 'ol black magic Juju :-)
Good weekend all :-)|
|My eyes are starting to water|
|Shares that increase their divis over time have been good to me.. I see no reason why that should not be the case here given stated management intentions for spare cash.
Debt free too|
|Rebs did say the shorts would have to close soon, he was bang on the money :-)|
|No stopping our CEY today :-)
Happiest days of our lives chaps :-)|
|Well done molatov :-)|
|I do believe I am in danger of turning a profit on this!! Hey hey!!|
This calls for some of your Absinthe and high quality egg-flip :-)|
|Calling it right chaps :-)|
|Easy game :-)|
|Large increase in dividend at next full year is baked in here. Management have declared that they are "not a bank" and thereby see it as duty to return excess cash to shareholders . . Shares with solid dividend growth much sought after currently . .|