Carillion Share Discussion Threads

[warranty] 18/12/2016 20:07

Interesting thing psychology isn't it? If you're life depended upon it, would you bet it on a share that's risen steadily for a couple of years rising again or on one that's fallen steadily for several years turning and rising? When you answer that it probably answers why most of us investors lose money. Everybody wants to buy low and sell high but rarely do it consistently. More likely money is tied up whilst the fall continues. It seems even very experienced investors on here can't explain why CLLN is so cheap and getting cheaper so why risk it? Wouldn't it be better to wait for this to turn round and in the meantime buy something that's already on the up and has turned round and likely to keep going further?

[rcturner2] 18/12/2016 10:44

JAF, no problem. Different opinions make a market. If the shorters have got this wrong, people buying now are getting a bargain. However, for me the CLLN numbers now fall into the "if it's too good to be true ..." category, but then again the market does strange things. I bought KCOM when it was under 80p and I could not understand that price given the profits and yield at the time (given they were guaranteeing to raise the div by 10% a year) and duly sold at 120p.

[zcaprd7] 17/12/2016 23:50

If they keep falling, people must start to get their slide rules out. Who are potential suitors?

[jaf1948] 17/12/2016 10:28

RCTurner2,

Sorry - I wasn't having a dig at you (although I admit that's how it reads). I was just pointing out that you no longer held. Apologies.

[rcturner2] 17/12/2016 09:08

JAF, I am always open about when I buy and sell. Of course I am not going to get every decision correct and Carillion is undervalued on many metrics and I have made good money on CLLN twice in the past. I am happy to admit to my mistakes.

[haywards26] 16/12/2016 16:39

The trading update did mention increased profits, debt stable, offset by a reduced order book due to Governmental uncertainty following the referendum..

It was steady as she goes, with a slight hint of negativity. No disasters or show stoppers were announced..

[jaf1948] 16/12/2016 16:05

Since RCTurner2 admitted on December 7tht that he had already sold CLLN, I will take his comments as self-justification for selling - he is hardly going to admit to a mistake.

I saw nothing in the trading update that would account for the recent fall. I hold for the dividend so the short term variations in the share price are not that important but nevertheless it is depressing also knowing how shorted this stock is.

[spoole5] 16/12/2016 15:59

But at 7 x earnings you could say it's all in the price.

[rcturner2] 16/12/2016 15:57

If you look at the chart since the beginning of 2014, it is one long downward trend.

What spooked me was the table in the IC which showed that relative to size, Carillion has pretty much the worst debt + pension deficit of all listed companies.

[spoole5] 16/12/2016 15:31

Will be adding at 2.20 if we get there, looking likely.

[wad collector] 16/12/2016 14:59

I would be joining you but got too many here. Holding tight.

[redartbmud] 16/12/2016 13:38

wad

Added a few more today - no idea if it is the right thing to do.
Trading funds liberated earlier at £2.60 and bits.

Fingers, and everything else crossed.

re

[shawzie] 16/12/2016 09:07

Garycook, I still hold to my previous posts.

[redartbmud] 16/12/2016 08:59

Deutsche bank are the traders for the US Hedgies.

[wakeland] 16/12/2016 08:46

The state Deutsche are in I suppose you could see that as a buy signal!

[garycook] 16/12/2016 04:05

I think I will give CLLN a miss.£2 retrace looks on the cards IMHO.

[salchow] 15/12/2016 16:16

Salpara111 - I don't know about a modest profit for the shorters. There has unfortunately been very significant shorts all the way from the 350p level.

[spoole5] 15/12/2016 15:10

Now yielding a shade under 8% at these levels. The market clearly now believes it will be cut even though it is almost twice covered by earnings.

[rcturner2] 15/12/2016 10:25

lab, momentum is very important in investment for the simple reason that stocks that rise tend to continue to rise and stocks that fall tend to continue to fall, that is known from academic research. Therefore chart levels are important and reflect the psychology of market participants.

[garycook] 15/12/2016 10:23

Interested at buying here.I know its the biggest shorted stock in the FTSE 350.But why is it such a Dog.7% plus dividend.Can anyone explain why I should buy here,and the reasons please.

[lord gnome] 15/12/2016 10:22

lab350 - check the charts man. Next support is at 220 once 240 has gone. The basics of support and resistance are the basis of any charting. And don't try to tell me that charting is all witchcraft. I've been doing this for over 30 years and it has always stood me in good stead.