Carillion Share Discussion Threads

[spoole5] 07/12/2016 08:09

And the share price falls. There's a surprise.

[edmundshaw] 07/12/2016 08:06

Expecting net borrowing to reduce from the half year level, in spite of forex headwinds, so I see no negative there. Currency fluctuations work both ways over time, and they are not the overriding factor.

[lord gnome] 07/12/2016 07:55

Sooner or later the shorts will have to close and there will be an almighty bear squeeze. Bring it on.

[m4rtinu] 07/12/2016 07:51

Lab - agreed. Wad - can't see any surge in share price this time, but ... new preferred bidder status RNS of £120m in Canada.

One minor down is ave net debt affected adversely by £ v $.

[redartbmud] 07/12/2016 07:46

lab

Agreed

red

[this_is_me] 07/12/2016 07:46

There is bound to be a short squeeze at some point.

[cwa1] 07/12/2016 07:43

SEEMS like a fairly solid statement to me on the whole. A few positives, some mild negatives but on the whole "business as usual" and nothing to startle the horses. No doubt the talking heads will alight upon every small piece of negative news and conveniently disregard anything remotely positive......

[lab305] 07/12/2016 07:18

Solid statement and steady as she goes.Once again as I have repeatedly stated there is nothing here to justify either the large short pisition or the pathetic share price. PE of 8 ??? WTF

[wad collector] 06/12/2016 12:44

On track to achieve full-year targets
-- Strong revenue growth with operating profit in line with expectation


That was last year - it made the share price "surge" from 305 to 320 then fell back to where it started within a day.


This yr starting at about 255 , are we going to see the same story? It would seem a fair bet to me to buy now and look for an early sell for a quick 5%. But being CLLN it will probably drop back! Is it worth it for 5% or so?
Not for me, as I have too many of these to start with.

[m4rtinu] 06/12/2016 10:00

Another decent rise today would be good going into tomorrow's update.

[edmundshaw] 05/12/2016 16:53

UBS up from below 4% to over 6% in two days' trading...

Interesting. I am guessing they won't be loaning out their shares...

[m4rtinu] 02/12/2016 15:04

Fri chart "very interesting 13.00-13.30.

[rcturner2] 28/11/2016 09:58

the debt + the pension deficit is probably the reason for the shorting of Carillion

[edmundshaw] 28/11/2016 09:43

Cashpoint, net borrowing was given in the presentation of the last interims. It is in the last 2015 Annual Report too as £538.9 million.

[linton5] 28/11/2016 07:55

Well said lab 305 couldn't agree more

[thorpematt] 27/11/2016 21:23

With regard to average borrowing and indications of what the real numbers are:

FDs can be quite creative at times and as discussed end of year is often a targeet for sprucing things up. One way I use to check the number is to look at interest payments throughout the period t cross reference. Naturally if we have the total interest payments and a rough idea of interest rate charge we should get some consistency. Likewise when we see a heavy cash position there ought to be a nice net finance income from interst paid (although these days it can be rather negligible).

[poacher45] 27/11/2016 11:31

Cashpo1nt I must be lucky the article just comes up when I search google.
Just try this search:-
carillion high borrowings prospects stockopedia

[cashpo1nt] 26/11/2016 20:26

Thanks edmundshaw and poacher45 for your responses to my query. Sadly I couldn't find any mention of "average net borrowing" in any recent interims or finals( except Aug 16 HY), they all give net borrowing at a particular date with figures about 30 ish%, or less, of GBP 538 million.
I'm a little concerned at the lack of detail and inconsistency in their RNS reports. Might these factors be behind the heavy shorting?

PS I tried to find the Phil Oakley article but was denied access that address, only found general advice about reading balance sheets etc.

[poacher45] 26/11/2016 13:51

Cashpo1nt try reading this report:-
hxxps://www.sharescope.co.uk/philoakley_article89.jsp

[edmundshaw] 26/11/2016 13:47

Average net debt is the number to look at rather than the (frequently massaged) end of year position. Carillion are good with this, as they always give the average debt number, unlike some other companies.

House builders typically have higher average debt in the spring, so the period end movement is not so surprising.

Also in the presentation they stated "average net borrowing similar to 2015 full-year average, in line with expectations"

So all in all, nothing to be concerned about, I would say.

[cashpo1nt] 26/11/2016 09:45

I like Carillion's yield and order book but find the net borrowing figures anomalous and worrying, vis:

24/8/15 (Half Year) Net borrowing at 30/6/15 GBP 199.6 million (31 Dec 2015 GBP177.3 million)

3/3/16 (Finals)Net borrowing reduced to GBP 169.3
million

24/8/16 (Half Year)Average net borrowing similar to the 2015 full year average of GBP 538.9 million "in line with expectations"

Can anyone explain this seemingly large discrepancy and put my mind at rest please?

[haywards26] 24/11/2016 16:50

hxxps://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/most-hated-stocks-uk-ditch-090255675.html

Carillion's fundamentals are also relatively impressive. As a construction business, it's exposed to cyclical construction trends, and it looks as if short sellers are betting that the company will struggle if the UK's economic growth grinds to a halt as it negotiates its divorce from the EU. But with the government committed to extra infrastructure spending, and a number of big-ticket infrastructure projects recently announced, it doesn't look as if this scenario will end up playing out. What's more, shares in Carillion are cheap. Shares in the company trade at a forward P/E of 7.4 and yield 7.4%. Another company I wouldn't bet against.

[m4rtinu] 24/11/2016 09:52

This might be of interest from yesterday's AS: