Bayfield Share Discussion Threads

[ultrapunch] 15/1/2013 22:43

stef77. you say .... "our current combined market value is $154 millions"

Where do you get that figure from?! BEH was valued at around £45m when suspended, or US$72m. We don't know what Trinity is valued at because it's not yet listed. I can only guess that you are valuing Trinity at 55/45 times the US$72m of BEH at suspension which gives US$90m. That gives a combined value of US$162m. You are just guessing, I'm afraid, on the combined Mkt Value since Trinity wasn't listed when BEH was suspended.

The trouble with Trinity is that it can't "book" the assets of the majority of the fields it produces from as 2P since it leases those fields from Petrotrin.

Oil companies are valued on 2P assets as well as production. Trinity has much more production than BEH, but a lot less 2P. I also suspect that BEH has a lot more exploration potential than Trinity.

BEH needed bailing out and Trinity need 2P assets and exploration potential. It's probably a good merger for both parties.

I agree that the ex-Burren management, led by O'Sullivan messed up big time. They couldn't repeat their previous success.

[stef77] 15/1/2013 20:37

Retsius
T&T didn't have one of the most competitive fiscal regimes but I believe they do now as oil companies and in fact it was Trinity that spearheaded a lobbying campaign over the past 2 years and got improved fiscal terms for their licences. I don't know what theirs are but Bayfield switched from wti to brent prices ,unfortunately it was too little too late as they were already in trouble.
It will be interesting to see what fiscal terms Trinity/Bayfield United will have.

[triples] 13/1/2013 21:16

retsius,

Bayfield negotiated better prices and netback before the takeover, so the regime isn't as suffocating as it once was.

[retsius] 13/1/2013 18:11

stef77 Great report. What is the suffocating fiscal regime you mentioned?

[stef77] 13/1/2013 13:18

The reason Trinity got 55% of the new co and Bayfield only 45% is very simple.although they had less reserves their net production is far higher than Bayfield's. they are onshore and a lot cheaper to produce therefore more profitable , ours offshore and more expensive. Anyway, as Bayfield shareholders, we should be greatful we even got that much! the alternative would have been a lot worse probably, as they ran out of cash.
Regarding the new venture although I'm excited about it, I think that Bayfield's assets will be a drag on the co. without a doubt Bayfield was a fiasco, and the glorified "ex burren" management proved to be nothing but a bunch of red faces in the end. In my opinion, Bayfield failed for 3 main reasons:
1 offshore assets very expensive to explore and develop
2 ageing infrastructure and small remaining deposits proved difficult to extract hence very poor progress in production.
3 suffocating fiscal regime in Trinidad.
Now remains to be seen whether the new managent can do what Bayfield's management couldn't: profitably monetise them assets.
Regarding the reopening price I don't think will be under 20p. I guess it depends on the level at which the new shares will be issued and investors are prepared to pay. Bayfield floated at $10/bbl on 2p reserves. with 31mil barrels
of 2p reserves at $10/bbl would value the new co at 310 mil dollars. our current combined market value is $154 millions. even with the raising of $90 millions there is plenty of upside.

[ultrapunch] 10/1/2013 16:55

I hope the share price does open and close higher on the day it re-lists. Obviously, since I hold the suspended shares!! If the share price comes back at the suspension price of 20.75p that will value the newco's 2P oil at £5 per bbl in the ground. Seems about right.

PS. I arrived at that oil in the ground figure by using shares in issue, pre placing, of 480m shares plus shares to be issued in the US$90 placing and the 2P of 31MMbbls.

PPS I presume you are thinking of LGO mdw1 since it's main focus is Trinidad. However RRL's main focus is Trinidad and that's been very weak recently despite good news from Trinidad.

[mojomonkey] 10/1/2013 16:12

I agree with Ultras points about gross bopd but I tend to side with mdw1 regarding the re-list price being likely to be a bit north of the suspended price.

Should be a good hold, longer term still too with the combined bopd, 2p and the goodwill that Trinity seem to have with the authorities in T&T

[mdw1] 10/1/2013 15:32

I disagree; market sentiment has improved greatly over the last couple of months and risk on trades look to be back on judging by the performance of some of the other junior oil stocks plus Bayfield's production has been increasing as has Trinity's; I see a healthy upside.

[ultrapunch] 10/1/2013 14:09

You don't know what you are talking about old fool2. You are living up to your nickname. Most of the production is coming from Trinity. You are forgetting that BEH only had 65% NET of it's oilfield production. Petrotrin had the other 35%. You are quoting GROSS figures for BEH's field.

However BEH are contributing most of the 2P reserves. 19MMbbls worth.

I think we will be lucky to see this return at above the pre suspension price. Have to wait and see what the placing price is.

[luminoso] 08/1/2013 17:44

Merger and placing is mid feb so guess relisting is pretty much then too.

[cockney sparrow] 08/1/2013 09:45

Is the relisting date mid feb?

[triples] 08/1/2013 09:33

Cash talks...

[luminoso] 08/1/2013 08:59

Who had the 2P reserves of 31m barrels of oil before merger ? Trinity may have had cash, which BEH didn,t. Looks like previous Bayfield board are taking big personal hits in the pocket and pride. I don,t expect much from relisting. Any upside will be a bonus to me.

[old fool2] 08/1/2013 08:16

The Trinity's current production is about half of Bayfield 1365 v 2600 and yet we only own 45% of merged company!

[spacecake] 08/1/2013 07:59

No mention of Finian O'Sullivan at the top table.

Key facts about Trinity Exploration and Production:
Private E&P company focused on Trinidad
7th largest operator in Trinidad with operated interests in 10 licenses (8 onshore, 2 offshore)
Founded in 2005 with strong operating and HSE track record since then
2011 exit production rate of 2,435 bopd (100% oil)
Based in San Fernando (Trinidad) with offices in Edinburgh (Scotland), Aberdeen (Scotland) and Denver (US)
Led by Joel "Monty" Pemberton (CEO) and Bruce Dingwall (Executive Chairman)
200+ employees

after merger......

Trinity plc's current production (on a 'post-Merger' basis) is approximately 3,965 bbl/d (net) (100 per cent. oil) and an active development drilling campaign is expected to grow this to 5,000 bbl/d (net) by the end of 2013. Trinity plc's assets have further development potential to deliver production beyond 10,000 bbl/d (net) in the medium term, excluding any exploration upside

[oldvic] 08/1/2013 07:59

cant see a date mentioned ?
anybody

[luminoso] 02/1/2013 13:34

I know how that fish feels ! All the best for 2013.

[mojomonkey] 01/1/2013 18:47

As it happens I got one of those for Christmas, let me have a look, back in a tick.










All I can see is an image of a small orange fish, going round in circles, this is a rubbish crystal ball.......................

[luminoso] 31/12/2012 13:04

Only if they have a crystal ball !

[snatander] 28/12/2012 19:10

Anyone know what price placing will be at?

[flyingbull] 28/12/2012 17:16

Fancy a challenge and put your skills to the test!? Here are the
oil stock competitions that sort out the boys/girls from the men/women! ;-) :-)

Best regards and Happy & Exciting New Year.....

fb

[triples] 24/12/2012 17:26

It looks like that Trinity has managed to renew acreage it already held. Look at the small map at the nottom of the artcle and you'll see a chunk called "Petrotrin / Venture".

However, there does appear to be new acreage in this deal, ie, Guapo and Point Ligoure.

The good news is that Trinity seem to be well favoured by the powers-that-be in T&T.

[triples] 24/12/2012 16:51

Thanks for posting this MM.

Any news about the licence area being applied for by Trinity & Cairn? I don't believe it was these areas in the article above.

atb