Bayfield Share Discussion Threads

[luminoso] 10/11/2012 17:23

Yes, frustrating as I hadn't considered the possibility of a suspension ! Was expecting an announcement of a sale of assets or an offer received for the whole company !

[ultrapunch] 08/11/2012 14:43

You are welcome luminoso. It's only been suspended just over 3 weeks so far. Early days yet, but it seems longer.

You did well, luminoso, if you sold at 30p and bought back at circa 20p.

However having your money tied up for, possibly, months is a bit of a drag. RTO's by a private company, such as Trinity, are always a problem because their up to date financial details are unavailble. We just don't know what their assets and liabilities are and their current financial state.

[spacecake] 08/11/2012 08:27

Any idea how long before I hear the thud on my doormat with the offer docs ?

I have the feeling they are still writing them... !

[luminoso] 07/11/2012 21:27

You are right, of course, Ultrapunch. I did acknowledge the pointlessness of my post, when writing it ! Your response, which increases my understanding of the situation, was worth getting and I thank you for that ! I agree the sooner we see the document the better. I bought back in - having sold at 30p - shortly before the suspension, so keen to see if that was a foolish or wise move ! cheers.

[ultrapunch] 07/11/2012 21:08

But luminoso you don't yet know what Trinity's 2P is, or their 3P, or their exploration potential. With BEH we knew their 2P was 19MMbbls, their 3P and their exploration potential. So how can you state that the merger deal looks to be favourable to BEH? On production yes, but production is only part of the story.

Most of Trinity's production appears to be via Petrotrin lease out production. Can Trinity claim the 2P reserves relating to that lease out production as their's in that case?

It's pointless, IMO, making any comment on this merger (RTO) and whether it favours BEH, or not, until we see the admission document. When that will be who knows, but the sooner the better!! It would be nice to see this re-listed as Trinity before Xmas!! Xmas 2012 by the way. lol.

[luminoso] 07/11/2012 18:18

RNS of 15/10 has net production of the merged venture at 3800 bopd 'at current rates' of production. So 2370 from Trinity ( as above ) and 1430 ish from BEH, I guess. BEH half yearly report said avge net prod in q3 was 1300, expected to rise to 1950 by year end. Considering the rise is dependent on all going well, the terms of the deal - 55/45 would seem to be favourable to BEH in terms of each company's contribution to production. I realise that other assets, etc come into the picture too, but if you consider that BEH were completely strapped for cash, then this deal might be quite a good one. Of course new company's fund raising terms will be another variable ! Just musing pointlessly, but clutching at straws has always been a strong suit with me.
At least weissy got a polite reply from Trinity, which is a positive.

[ultrapunch] 05/11/2012 15:28

weissy, this is what I posted around 2 weeks ago on the lse bb.

ultrapunch
Posts: 920
Answer
Opinion: No Opinion
Price: 20.75
molokai22 Oct '12Yep, probably the rest of Trinity's production is contained within the Lease Out (LO) figures for Petrotrin. That looks like the most likely answer.

You didn't have to e-mail Trinity. I'd already provided the answer 2 weeks ago!! lol.

[weissy] 05/11/2012 12:20

All,

I e-mailed Trinity regarding the production query that was raised a couple of weeks back and this was their response:

"Dear X,

Many thanks for your interest in Trinity Exploration & Production. As detailed on the company's website, Trinity is the holder of seven lease operatorship agreements. Its production from these leases is captured in the "PTRIN (LO)" column of the file you reference. Trinity is currently producing approximately 2,370 bopd (net) as per the RNS you reference in your email.

I appreciate there will likely be many questions on Trinity given it is a private company and that is why the Bayfield shares are suspended. We are currently preparing an Admission Document which will be posted to shareholders in due course with full details of the enlarged group.

Kind regards,

Catriona

Catriona McDermott
Director

Brunswick Group LLP, 16 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London, WC2A 3ED, United Kingdom"

[mojomonkey] 03/11/2012 11:12

If Trinity's profile is as high as it seems in T&T then there is a good chance a few locals will want to get on-board early in its lifetime. You know Buy Local and all that kind of thing?

[weissy] 29/10/2012 13:40

Guys,

Not sure if this has been highlighted but was on the media / news on the Trinity web-site.



I like this the best:

'Finally, Trinity Exploration is a local junior entirely focused on Trinidad. Formerly known as Ten Degrees North, the
company has ambitious growth plans and spent much of 2011 raising capital from private equity investors. It has
produced small quantities of oil from some of the country's mature areas for many years – current output is around 2,500
b/d and it has ambitious plans to grow that to 10,000 b/d by 2015, as well as turning its attention to deepwater
exploration. It has placed a joint bid for TTDAA 5 in partnership with Cairn Energy.'

[oilbuy] 23/10/2012 17:49

Mdw1 It was indeed ultra and I are loaded up with Leni . Regarding BEH I hope we get moving before Christmas ! Oilbuy

[mdw1] 23/10/2012 16:42

While on the subject of Trinidadian oilfields I see Leni Gas & Oil was up 33% yesterday after the acquisition of one there; they're obviously seen as a prize worth having............

[triples] 23/10/2012 13:59

Indeed, but Cairn chose to share a bit of risk with a local, well-connected company.

[weissy] 23/10/2012 13:29

Triples,

Share a bit of risk?

[triples] 22/10/2012 17:11

So why didn't Cairn go 100% at this stage, I wonder? Looks good to have a local partner, dunnit?

[ultrapunch] 22/10/2012 16:59

Thanks triples. Here's what Cairn have to say in a statement dated 18/10/12

Trinidad & Tobago

Cairn and its partner, Trinity Exploration and Production, have submitted a bid in the recent Trinidad & Tobago licence round (Cairn - Operator 80%). This is a competitive licence round with a number of other international companies seeking acreage. Results are expected later in 2012.

[triples] 21/10/2012 19:58

And Trinity & Cairn are bidding jointly for a T&T licence that contains a fairly deep juicy prospect. I think Trinity & Cairn's odds of landing that catch have just improved.

[mojomonkey] 21/10/2012 18:52

Good post Stef77, I tend to think that continuing to hold long term, as was always my intention, this will still turn out to be a very good investment even with an average like mine in the mid 40s after selling a few of the cheap 15-22p range shares I had, with the intention of trading them.

The bopd anomaly I pointed out will as you say have a simple explanation, as Ultrapunch said they are unlikely to of just told out and out lies. He is also probably correct in saying just forget about them for a while. I managed to do that when they were stuck at 15-17p for what seemed like ages so I will do so again.

The new BOD do seem to be popular in T&T that can not be a bad thing, I live on a small island and know how local companies are favored over "outsiders". Maybe not openly but what actually happens suggests a, to be fair, natural bias toward the locals.

[stef77] 21/10/2012 09:49

ultrapunch, I tried to do that myself! forget about Bayfield until re-admission. it lasted about a week, then I got bored.
Mojo, the discrepancy between the production figures reported by Trinity and the T&T Government is still puzzling me. Ultrapunch, thanks for coming up with the answer.
Looking at Trinity's website under "key facts", they stated an exit production rate for 2011 of 2435 bopd ( 100% oil) . that means they must have produced aprox that amount throughout 2012 as well.Yet, the Gov's monthly bulletin attributes only 561 bopd to Trinity. based on that, ultrapunch , it rules out you first 3 explanations, making the last one the most plausible of all.
The monthly bulletin shows Petrotrin's first column as their own production figures and the other 3 PTRIN columns the amounts they get from farm outs, lease outs and ipsc's. ie shows the 35% share from Bayfield. it might be that Trinity's production is shown there, but still, it should only show their net entitlement.
Another possible explanation is that Trinity having made 2 acquisitions in the past few years, the prod figures might still be shown in the name of those co's and Trinity being the holding co.
ANYWAY, I wouldn't worry about it. like you said mojo, surely there is a simple explanation. Trinity IS producing that amount, reported by Bayfield as well.
It is impossible to make an assessment of the new co at this stage, we need to see their books: reserves,debt/cash position, what price they get their oil for, capex commitments, fiscal terms, etc. on the face of it looks good, I like the new management, very reminiscent of Bayfield's.(which is a disappointment for me and history now). they have ambitions to grow the co through merger and acquisitions, reserve base, etc.
I personally don't see a major re-rating upon re-admission mainly because they said: "enlarged group intends to raise additional debt and/or equity capital in conjunction with the merger", we all know Bayfield's capex liability. and any synergies created by the merger might be offset by the issuance of debt/equity.
However, in the long run, patience might be well rewarded here.
I remember that Bayfild's management invested $47 millions in the co and they would need 28p a share to get their money back. common sense tells me they'd want to at least break even on their investment.

[triples] 20/10/2012 23:36

Hi Marben,

Thanks for the post.

It's good to see that JM had invested in Trinity before this 'merger'. It gives a bit more credibility to Old Trinity.

[marben100] 20/10/2012 21:01

Just in case anyone isn't aware, Jim Mellon & Steve Dattels' HK listed vehicle, Regent Pacific ( ) has a significant shareholding in Trinity. Regent will own 14.3m shares in the "New Trinity" following the reverse takeover of Bayfield. See

[spacecake] 20/10/2012 18:58

Well that was one of the strangest weeks of my life... go for an op at the local hospital in Bayfield and wake up in Trinity minus a gall bladder !

[stef77] 19/10/2012 22:26

mojo, maybe trinity's production figures include the water cut!! sorry, couldn't help it.

[ultrapunch] 19/10/2012 21:51

Another alternative explaination, Mojomonkey, for the difference in the bopd figures is the production attributed to Petrotrin.

1001bopd FO (Farm Outs)

5660bopd LO (Lease Outs)

324bopd IPSC (Incremental Production Service Contracts)

Could any of that production be attributed to Trinity.

Personally I think investors should stop worrying themselves about this and that speculation and sit back and wait for the Admissions Document. Until you see that all speculation is completely pointless. Only when that Admissions Document is issued can we have any idea of what will happen to the share price on re-listing. We can do nothing until this share is re-listed so why not forget about BEH until then? That's what I'm going to do from now on.

EDIT. In my mind I've written off my investment in BEH. That way I'll be happy if it comes back as low as 10p!! lol.

[ultrapunch] 19/10/2012 21:32

Mojomonkey, Here's the link you were looking for



Your figures are correct blad. Well unless Trinity are lying on their web site, which I presume is very unlikely, we only have 3 explainations to account for the sudden increase in their bopd. Either they have drilled a gusher recently which seems unlikely or they have brought wells being worked over back into production or they have taken over another T&T oil producer since July which was producing just under 2000bopd!! Either of those last 2 explainations would account for the dramatic increase in bopd from the end of July.

They are obviously not lying on their web site. I reckon the most likely explaination for the dramatic increase in their bopd since the end of July is that they have acquired another local producer.

I suppose if someone searches the web they might be able to find some relevant information.