Bayfield Share Discussion Threads

[ricky46] 27/1/2013 13:20

Very very disappointed with these

[jac1104] 27/1/2013 13:01

Steff..beh gets 9.5% discount of Brent for their oil

[ammons] 26/1/2013 21:50

15p? easy money for the likes of wshak who participated. I buy a few with my shrapnel (compared to him) if they fall to 12/13p.

[ultrapunch] 26/1/2013 20:00

jac, no mention of South Africa in yesterdays RNS.

The placing was over subscribed at 12p. Not surprised seeing it's very attractively priced for those participating in the funding!! Not so attractive for existing BEH holders!! However BEH's Sullivan and Pannikov, along with the Trinity BoD, could be participating in the placing so possibly not so unattractive a price for them!!!!!! lol.

However if it was over subscribed that could mean some disappointed institutions could be buyers when it floats on monday. As my profit figures in my post this morning show the merged company is a steai at 12p (120p after consolidation) for those partaking in the placing. It's definitely worth 20p+, but I suspect the closing price monday will be somewhere between 12p and 20p. Probably 15-16p. Hopefully higher.

[jac1104] 26/1/2013 15:54

Ultra...good summary...albeit highly dilutive, raising US$90m shows institutional confidence n is impressive in these mkts- company will be fully funded for 2013 at very least ..also will be interesting to see if they do move forward w the South African acreage Bayfield was awarded last yr

[0rient] 26/1/2013 14:01

Ok cheers Ultrapunch :)

[ultrapunch] 26/1/2013 13:57

Orient, you are wrong my friend. Read the RNS again. The consolidation doesn't take place until the 14th February. The share price should be 12p+ when it opens up on this coming monday 28th January.

[0rient] 26/1/2013 12:54

Ultrapunch..there's a 1 for 10 share consolidation..share price should be 120+ on openening.

[ultrapunch] 26/1/2013 12:34

The merged company will earn BRENT - 9.5% per bbl on it's oil. Say US$100 per bbl.

4000bopd = 1,460,000 bbls pa.

Revenue = US$146m pa.

BEH's cost of sales + admin expenses should be less than US$40m pa. I don't know Trinity's cost of sales + expenses, but suspect they are less than those of BEH because the Trinity oil production is mostly onshore whilst BEH's is all offshore. Let's say the cost of sales + admin expenses for the merged company is US$76m. I think it's less, but best to be conservative.

That gives the merged company a pre tax profit of US$146m - US76m = US$70m pa.

If the merged company were valued at 5 x pre tax profit that would give a Mkt Cap of US$350m or around £215m. Dividing that by the number of shares after consolidation (95.5m) gives 225p, or 22.5p pre consolidation.

Hence my target closing share price on monday is between 15 to 23p. A wide margin, but it's all guesswork.

[luminoso] 26/1/2013 00:12

Only winners will be placees and maybe very long term holders.
I am neither. Luckily, there's no shortage of places to put my diminished proceeds from BEH. I would suggest 14/15p as a likely re-entry price, quickly falling to around 13p as some very disappointed holders exit at first opportunity. No doubt there will be new buyers at or above the placing price, which should keep the new entity above 12p. Then placees will be selling into the market regularly to prevent the share price rising above 15p for several months. Only my opinion/musing.

[ultrapunch] 25/1/2013 23:55

GOO had a big placing with shares priced at 0.75p. They re-listed yesterday and closed around 1.50p, twice the placing price. Today GOO closed around 1.90p, having risen to over 2p intraday.

I think that the BEH share price will close above 12p on monday. How much higher is sheer guesswork.

I make it 264m "Trinity" shares merged in along with the original 216m BEH shares. Total 480m. Dividing that by 10 gives 48m NEW shares after consolidation. There are 47.5m NEW shares being issued in the placing. That gives a grand total of 95.5m NEW shares.

If the current 2P, which is producing, is valued by the Mkt at £5 per bbl in the ground (perfectly reasonable because of 4000bopd production) that would give a target Mkt Cap of £156m. Dividing that by 95.5m NEW shares (post consolidation) gives a target share price of 165p. Or 16.5p when it re-lists on monday pre consilidation. Add in a bit for the exploration potential and future production targets and it could go higher on monday when it re-lists.

[ultrapunch] 25/1/2013 23:11

divinausa1. What do you expect? BEH was nearly bust. Rapidly running out of money. The auditors had qualified the BEH a/cs as a going concern. Institutions hold the whip hand. They have the cash and Trinity/BEH need it!! Cash is King.

[divinausa1] 25/1/2013 22:58

12p 40% discount to closing price

shocking!

no chance to get back to 60p old money, which was the share price just 8 months ago, initial backers cannot be happy

[dr rosso] 25/1/2013 19:01

216m BEH shares Old mcap £44m 21p
256 Old Trinity shares being merged in.

472m shares New mcap around £100m Sp sticks at 21p

And then the big BUT. Another 475 placing shares being issued at 12p.

Suddenly its 947m shares in issue for New Trinity, which means the mcap is going to have to see a doubling from £100m to £200m for the existing shareholders to break even. Might see that £200m within a year, but on relist the most we are going to see is £170m. That gives an share price of 17p.

The gainers are those in on the placing at 12p. I wonder who they might be?
40% instant gain. Killer initial dilution for existing BEH holders. Trinity holders will have been offered the bulk of the new shares, no doubt, and voted the merger through.

31mmb and 4k bopd from the Enlarged Group for £170m, but if they can ramp up production quick style to 10k bopd, looking at £250m mcap and 25p.

[mojomonkey] 25/1/2013 18:04

They might have placed at 12p but that does not represent their real value. The placing is at a substantial discount to give the people who have put up the money, a good chance of a decent return.

The main thing is that they have raised the money to push the output up and actually stop us closing down. By the end of the year we will have revenue of 150million if they manage 5,000 bopd which is not an unachievable production figure.

If when this re-lists, the shares are available to buy at £1.20 I would be surprised to say the least. The potential here is still massive, what did Bruce Dingwall say? 10,000 bopd in the medium term? 300-320million revenue.

We still have a lot of people, including the BEH founding directors, the Blackrock people and many PIs holding these at very high averages. That will likely mean that when we get some decent production updates and expo wells drilled the RNS issued about these items will see the share price will move up like a rocket as it has in the past.

A very good RNS are my thoughts Orient, Happy New Year BTW and good luck to all.

[0rient] 25/1/2013 15:42

Thoughts??...shocking..all that wait and your shares are worth 12p!!

Thankfully got out before they de-listed but unhappy for the current holders...come on 12p they should of done better than that!

[weissy] 25/1/2013 15:11

RNS

Trading to recommence on Monday

GM 13th Feb

1-10 consolidation & placing 14th Feb

Thoughts???

[ultrapunch] 24/1/2013 13:28

Mojomonkey. Thanks for posting the link. However the following quote from the article appears to rule out any North Sea development!!

"Asked if the company might move into the North Sea, Mr Dingwall said: "We're attempting to make headway in a basin that needs transforming. I've done that in the North Sea before. From an emotional, intellectual, technical point of view, we need to do it somewhere else."

He added: "I'm not going to do it again, others are doing it right now.""

[weissy] 22/1/2013 12:11

Mojo,

Thanks for that, good read. 3-5 weeks to go until trading commences again (hopefully), it's been a long old while.

[bc4] 21/1/2013 13:57

Sounds good to me

[mojomonkey] 21/1/2013 12:01

Don't know if this has already been posted but it is a very upbeat bit of publicity from Bruce Dingwall Trinitys boss, North Sea development not out of the question it seems too.



From the article:- While Trinity will focus on Trinidad, the company may consider moving into other areas.

Asked if the company might move into the North Sea, Mr Dingwall said: "We're attempting to make headway in a basin that needs transforming. I've done that in the North Sea before. From an emotional, intellectual, technical point of view, we need to do it somewhere else."

And also:-

"Trinity plc's assets have further development potential to deliver production beyond 10,000 bbl/d (net) in the medium term, excluding any exploration upside," said the company

Well worth a read. 10,000 Net!! , in the medium term! I like the sound of that! GLA

[stef77] 20/1/2013 10:47

ultrapunch
True, we have to wait and see what the market thinks New Trinity is worth and we can only use that nominal valuation as a point of reference.
The more I read about it again, the more annoyed I get when I see that Trinity with 7 million barrels of 2p reserves and net assets of US$50m against Bayfield's 24mmbbl of 2p reserves and net assets of US$104m gets 55% of the new co and us only 45%. This merger is a dilution in itself for us. Obviously a lot of Trinity's value comes from their "local connections" and future prospects as opposed to hard core assets.
New Trinity will have 31mmbbl of 2p reserves and net production of 4000bopd. if we use Bayfiled's oil price as ref (brent -10%) say US$100/bbl that gives them aprox US$150m a year in revenue. that's impressive. and they plan to increase production to 5000bopd by year end and 10000 by 2015. To be fair these are more credible targets than what Bayfield used to promise.
I can't help myself but take a punt on the valuation.
2p reserves of 31mmbbl x $7.5/bbl( what I consider a minimal valuation) gives $232.5millions
NPV10 ( net present value discounted 10%/year) which takes into account the cashflow, capex, etc, stated by Bayfield's last RNS as $268millions.
That gives a median of aprox $250millions or £155million valuation for New Trinity.
Our last nominal valuation at suspension based on 45/55 split is $162m.
That leaves a gap between the nominal valuation and what the co might be worth of aprox $90m which will be probably "filled" by the placing of new shares.
Based on that,and depending how many shares they issue( they might not raise the full amount initially) I don't see the placing of new shares far from the current 20p/share level. i would guess 20-25p a share range at reopening.

ps. Ultrapunch, yes it is a guesstimate :)

[ultrapunch] 20/1/2013 00:29

Yes, but that valuation of Trinity has not been given to it by the market since it's not listed. It's the value effectively given to it by Trinity and BEH Directors in negotiations.

We will have to wait and see what valuation the market gives to the merged company when it re-lists and then by inference the value it gives to the original Trinity.

At the moment what the merged company re-lists at is a completely unknown quantity since the admission document hasn't been published. When it is we can perhaps make a stab at the likely share price after it re-lists.

[stef77] 19/1/2013 11:08

Ultrapunch, yes, you're right. You are guessing that I'm guessing! lol.
On what basis then do Trinity shareholders get 55% of the new co and Bayfield holders only 45%? why not , let's say 90%/10% and so on, one would assume that this ratio of 45/55 was based on Bayfield's valuation at the time( of US$72m )giving Trinity a valuation of US$90m RELATIVE to Bayfield's value.