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AV. Aviva Plc

462.50
2.30 (0.50%)
15 Apr 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Aviva Plc LSE:AV. London Ordinary Share GB00BPQY8M80 ORD 32 17/19P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  2.30 0.50% 462.50 6,122,119 16:35:22
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
461.90 462.10 465.10 460.30 460.30
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
Insurance Carriers, Nec 41.43B 1.09B 0.3962 11.66 12.65B
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
18:28:28 O 0 463.60 GBX

Aviva (AV.) Latest News (6)

Aviva (AV.) Discussions and Chat

Aviva Forums and Chat

Date Time Title Posts
15/4/202408:26AVIVA PLC 19,312
12/4/202417:31Aviva25,501
16/3/202417:45AV. for alternative views11
13/3/202417:45No-Raj Union ?2
05/4/202318:44Aviva SLa Lgen??2

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Aviva (AV.) Most Recent Trades

Trade Time Trade Price Trade Size Trade Value Trade Type
17:28:30463.14211977.23O
17:25:33464.11105487.31O
17:10:58463.0965,433303,011.72O
17:08:12462.4918,06483,543.47O
17:07:54463.01182,776846,269.33O

Aviva (AV.) Top Chat Posts

Top Posts
Posted at 15/4/2024 09:20 by Aviva Daily Update
Aviva Plc is listed in the Insurance Carriers, Nec sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker AV.. The last closing price for Aviva was 460.20p.
Aviva currently has 2,738,270,828 shares in issue. The market capitalisation of Aviva is £12,650,811,225.
Aviva has a price to earnings ratio (PE ratio) of 11.66.
This morning AV. shares opened at 460.30p
Posted at 31/3/2024 15:04 by muscletrade
Have been away a few days and have caught up with the Exane downgrade and target share price of 420p.
This does come as a surprise and they are very much the outlier with lowest target price out there.

However Exane don't seem to pay that much attention to AV. They only started coverage in 2019 and have only issued 4 notes in all that time and have been consistent at either underweight or neutral..... it seems with little or no reference to the fact that AV is not the same company as it was was when they first started coverage in 2019.
Has anyone actually read the Exane note? would be interested to read if available.
Posted at 12/3/2024 15:06 by muscletrade
As of this morning based on a poll of 15 Analysts AV 12-Month Price Target
Average 499.07 (+5.51% Upside). The highest target price being 575p(source investing.com).
However at time of writing I have only seen two analyst notes from UBS and BOA since the results last week, who as we know both increased their share price target so it will be interesting to see what other analysts come up with.

I have also done a quick comparison between AV and L&G that some might find interesting.

L&G EPS 13.96p after stripping out longevity and internal pension schemes accounting(their figures and description) giving a PE of 18.36. which compares very favourably with AV.

Why should L&G be rated so much higher than AV????
Well they have a very solid record compared to AVs less than stellar performance (pre Blanc) and a much more consistent dividend record.

The other metric that L&G wins hands down is ROE. of 27.1% (excluding investment and other moves(their words again),AV is still only 12.7% albeit much better than 9.4% in 2022. So AV have much to do to get closer to ROE that L&G enjoy.

Much to play for. If they can continue to improve ROE the PE should follow. If perchance AV enjoyed the same PE as L&Gs 18.36 the share price would be (41x 18.36)...753p...(that isn't going to happen anytime soon unless they are bought out).

Apologies as if this all sounds like ramping. Of course I have interest in AV but Im not inventing imaginary figures , just doing the maths on the figures that are in the public domain.
Posted at 12/3/2024 10:21 by muscletrade
No one apart from UBS and BOA have come up with a valuation for the share price yet so I have done my own.

Trailing PE(for 2023) at today's share price of 469 and EPS of 37.7=12.44

This is a relatively modest PE for a company now in growth mode which the company have themselves confirmed by their 2023 results and also by increasing their capital generation from 1.467 to 2.0 billion

I have assumed that this translates into EPS of 41p for 2024(it could be slightly less or slightly more but is consistent with the improvement in 22/2023.

In the first instance I assume there is no improvement to the trailing PE for 2023
that provides (41 X 12.44)= share price of 510p

if there is a modest improvement to the PE to 13.0 (41 x 13.0) =SP of 533p

if there is a larger improvement to the PE to 13.5 (41 x 13.5) =SP of 554p

My understanding is that the PE of the higher valued insurance companies is closer to 18 than 13.5 so it doesn't seem to me unreasonable that the market might begin to recognise the progress underway and price in a higher PE. (one hopes, but it seems entirely logical).

Conclusion....even allowing for no improvement in PE the share price should be around 510p based upon what AV have already forecast.

If the market recognise that there should be a higher valuation based on growth forecasts then a share price of 554p is hardly expensive when compared to peer group with higher PEs.

One of the metrics that has held Av back is the pretty dismal ROE.
which was only 9.9% in 2022. this increased 48% to a more respectable 14.7% in 2023 and should increase again in 2024....which in turn should also support a higher PE valuation.

Please feel free to offer comments(please be kind, in fact I would welcome them
Posted at 11/3/2024 08:08 by andyble
Yes Aviva is slimmed down nicely enough for a sale but now they have done that they will be getting told that if the share price does not rise then they will be taken over. This may explain why they are so bullish presently talking up prospects, but for us the share price rises either way. I actually thought Aviva would be sold by the end of last year, but am holding my breath still, and fun to watch the future unfold from here else the continuing business success to £2B operating profit in due course.
Posted at 08/3/2024 07:30 by cjac39
1rob what would you say the adjusted price is today vs pre all the disposals? Presumably adjust for the special of 3.75? I think 100 shares became 76 so 4.6 today share price is worth 6.1 in old share price money?
Posted at 06/3/2024 15:24 by muscletrade
Shares in Aviva PLC (LSE:AV.) have jumped around 2% since it revealed it would be returning to the Lloyd's insurance market on Monday.

Investors will now be hoping that results on Thursday can stimulate more growth in the share price.

Through acquiring Probitas for a £242 million consideration, Aviva will acquire its fully integrated Lloyd's platform, encompassing its corporate member, managing agent, international distribution entities and tenancy rights to Syndicate 1492.

Lloyd’s of London, also known as the ‘Lloyd’s market’, is a syndicate of insurers and reinsurers that underwrite risk on complex insurance products.

“Overall the acquisition is relatively small and is not a complete surprise… but provides an alternative distribution opportunity for capital-light general insurance growth and a high-teens IRR,” said analysts at Jefferies.

Aviva’s management has already guided for operating profits (implied £1.42-1.45bn) for full-year 2023 but the actual number might be nearer the bottom than the top given the dismal weather in Britain this winter.

Analysts expect any blow on the weather claims front to be softened by more cash handouts from the insurer with more than £6 billion over time being suggested by one broker.

An internal cash generation target of over £1.6bn by 2026 might also be revised as might the planned £750 million of cost savings currently underway.

“With the Solvency II ratio at a robust 206% (above Aviva's 180% target) and a larger capital base, the company arguably now has more firepower to fund special capital returns," said Jefferies.

“As a result, we lift our share buyback assumption from £330m in 2023 to £350m with future buybacks to rise in £50m increments annually thereafter (FY24: £400m, FY25: £450m).”
Posted at 05/3/2024 10:34 by whatsup32
Article praises Blanc for her achievements including streamlining business, returning £5b to shareholders.
Questions why share price has not moved higher in the past year despite achievements
" yet despite Blanks success in reshaping Aviva the groups share price has been held back by broader investor antipathy towards London listed financial services shares"
Posted at 23/2/2024 20:03 by pj84
xongkudu todays article in the Telegraph is along those lines.

"The five warning signs that we’re at the start of another 2000-style stock market bubble.

Parallels between the dotcom hysteria of the past and today's AI revolution are uncanny."

It starts off with this;

"History does not repeat, but it rhymes. I was reminded of this truism this week when I compared the recent stock market performance of Nvidia with that of Cisco Systems in the two years leading up to the bursting of the dotcom bubble in the spring of 2000. The similarity of the two charts is striking.

In both cases, the share price trebled in a matter of a few months, then paused for breath for a few months more before turning left up the page as the fear of missing out sucked in the doubters. Nvidia had risen by more than 50pc since the start of the year before this week’s wobble.

Both companies’ shares increased sevenfold in less than two years. Nvidia remains close to its all-time high, and on Thursday helped push Japan’s Nikkei 225 past its 1989 bubble peak. What happens next is one of the most important questions in investment right now."

...

It concludes "I think that if we are in a bubble, it is still young. The valuation premium is well short of the level reached in 1999 or even in the early 1970s, when the most popular shares were priced nearly twice as expensively as the rest of the pack.

We are a long way off that today. Sentiment is not yet universally positive. When it becomes so, it will be time to worry. We’re not there yet."




I would add that from another article in the Telegraph today;

"The stock price leap came after Nvidia reported that its quarterly revenues had climbed 265pc to more than $22bn. Its full-year revenues more than doubled to $60bn."



265pc is a huge climb in quarterly revenues so it isn't just hype but real sales.

I realise the above is off topic but it was in response to a general question posted and as a small plug I am invested in the Polar Capital Technology Trust which has 8.4% of it's funds in Nvidia and the discount has widened today to 11% and hasn't yet recognised todays increase in NAV.
Posted at 22/2/2024 07:39 by muscletrade
Not Fresh news here but well worth a read nonetheless...High-yielding Aviva
AV
shares have been flagged for a potential re-rating as the UK’s life insurance sector moves back into favour after nearly a decade in the doldrums.

Bank of America’s upgrade to a “Buy” recommendation comes with Aviva’s forecast yield the third highest in its coverage of more than 25 European insurers.

Based on its estimates for 2024, the shares yield dividend income of 8.4% and an all-in figure of 11% when including £300 million of annual share buybacks.

Even at the bank’s new price target of 490p, Aviva shares offer a 7.7% dividend yield compared to the sector-average 5.3%. The shares were today at 446p, broadly where they stood a year ago.

The bank’s note to clients praised the operational performance of a “more focused, disciplined” Aviva under the leadership of chief executive Amanda Blanc.

Since taking the helm in 2020, she has streamlined the business behind life and general insurance operations in the UK and property and casualty lines in Canada.

Annual results on 7 March are due to show operating profit growth within the company's 5-7% guidance range, despite challenges caused by inflation and weather-related claims.

Aviva has already flagged a dividend cost of about £915 million in 2023, the equivalent to about 33.4p a share when including a forecast final dividend of 22.3p. It then intends to grow the pay-out distribution in the region of low-to mid-single digits.

However, the lower number of shares in circulation due to annual buybacks means Bank of America sees Aviva delivering 7.3% annual dividend growth at a cost rising 4.5% a year.

Despite the progress made in recent years, the shares trade on 9.2 times 2025 earnings. At the bank’s new target price, a multiple of 10.5 times compares with the sector’s 9.7 times.

The bank said: “We think payment of the final dividend and start of the buyback (both due over the coming three months) should act as catalysts for the stock and can support re-rating.”

It added that Aviva's operational story is now a non-controversial one, and that the company should be able to deliver steady earnings growth in the UK and Canada.

The bank added: “The UK will benefit from a golden-age for the bulk annuity market, steady growth in UK protection, steady growth in UK workplace and retail savings, and strong franchises in UK and Canadian personal and casualty lines.”

In addition, sentiment in the UK life insurance sector appears to be brightening after nearly a decade blighted by low interest rates and Brexit headlines.

The uncertain economic backdrop and an inverted yield curve, where long-term interest rates are below short-term rates, have kept UK life stocks out of fashion. The transition to IFRS17 accounting standard has also been unhelpful.

The bank added: “With our strategists pointing towards a yield curve normalisation over the coming year, we think this suggests an attractive entry point for Aviva.”

A week ago, UBS upgraded its price target to 515p and said there looked to be an upside risk to the insurer’s cash generation target for the period of 2024-26.

interactive investor has just teamed up with experts at eyeQ who use artificial intelligence, macro factors and their own smart machine to generate actionable trading signals. Here’s what they say about Aviva:

“Aviva is trading off big-picture conditions as well as company news. Macro relevance is currently 80% on eyeQ’s strategic long-term model (above 65% means the macro environment is critical, so any valuation signals carry strong weight).

“The latest share price rally has taken the insurer 3.9% above where macro conditions say it ‘should’ trade. That’s not quite a big enough Fair Value Gap (difference between our model value (fair value) and where the price currently is) to trigger a signal on eyeQ’s AI framework. We need to see more like a 5% premium for that.

“But it is worth contrasting with Legal & General Group
LGEN
0.58%
, which is also a macro play (84% relevance) and which screens as 2% cheap to the big-picture environment. There may be solid company fundamental reasons for the discrepancy, but it is worth noting the divergence between the two from a purely macro perspective.”
Posted at 09/2/2024 21:18 by cjac39
1rob point taken - seems by your maths were due 22-23p in divi ex div in march / april. Im still more positive mng but in terms of rock solid payout av seems the best. i know in theory divi payout gets deducted from share price but it doesnt ever work out like that. so im adding now at this level as its just a silly share price relative to risk. bring on the unloved uk stocks
Aviva share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange

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