Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[briangeeee] 16/5/2016 07:50

Say they remain on track for the full year, but some sales expected in Q3 have slipped into Q4.

[michaelmouse] 16/5/2016 07:38

All depends on the following statement I'd guess:-

"Period end cash was $122.4m. Avanti has additional consented credit capacity of $71.0m. As planned, the Group has made good progress towards securing additional liquidity. Several different facilities have been offered and the most attractive is in documentation."

Since the bear case rests on the company going bust then the bull/bear argument largely depends on whether or not the company can stay solvent. The above statement suggests it will, but it is not clear under what terms that will be.

Highly speculative as always, but we shall see.

Otherwise they remain on track to achieve their full year forecasts.

[johnwise] 16/5/2016 07:29

Avanti Communications Group Plc Q3 2016 Trading Statement

16 May 2016

RNS Number : 2776Y

Highlights

-- Third quarter revenue was $19.5m representing 14.7% growth versus the second quarter on a constant currency basis

-- Full year guidance re-affirmed and underpinned by strong contract win momentum

-- Period end cash balance was $122.4m

-- HYLAS 4 remains on target for launch with early pre-sales already signed

[aa29] 16/5/2016 07:27

So the trading statement is out. Growth in actual revenue isn't great and lots of the usual stuff about future prospects.

[elrico] 15/5/2016 15:26

hpcg - to be clear, I would not suggest AVN is a fraud on a par with GLOBO or QPP? probably not; is AVN a fraud? Depends who's opinion you garner. Is the Telegraph expose significant now? No, that is in the past, but the bears pointing to the Telegraph article will suggest Williams has shown his hand as to the caliber of CEO he is and will point to, shall we call them, accounting anomalies. The accounting questions have been in the public domain for some time now, but they remain unanswered. If I were a shareholder I would want to know why AVN have not answered the questions, instead seek gag people by bulling tactics.

Shareholders will argue AVN accounts have been signed off by the accountants and nomad, that of course means jack! Both GLOBO & QPP got their accounts past the so called professionals and both have been proven to be wholesale frauds. The pros signing the accounts seem perfectly happy to cash their retainers until such a point where it becomes a little too awkward to ignore any longer. I am not saying this is the case with AVN, it's accountant or nomad, but they do appear to missed a number of red flags. Who knows, they may have requested explanations and they may be happy with the answers, that won't matter by Christmas.

You are bang on the money when you state, cash flow and cash generation, or lack thereof will ultimately lead to AVN down fall. A declining data trend where 60% decline in prices makes generating the cash need for AVN survival so much more difficult. Bond prices and sliding share price make raising new money dam near improbable and without it, bond holders will be left hold what is left of AVN, if as expected, AVN breach banking and bond covenants.

Let's see how excitable shareholder become Monday, they seem convinced Williams will excite next week. He probably will, but it will be a brief rest bite, because each ramp has a more diminishing effect and as we have witnessed last week, the shares rallied strongly, then fell back to earth, gave all there gains away with interest, now an all time low, again.

[weatherman] 15/5/2016 15:07

But we'll know more tomorrow....

[weatherman] 15/5/2016 15:06

Avanti is maintaining its rates on Ka band - read the EE deal follow ups in the news...

[hpcg] 15/5/2016 12:23

elrico - yes, studies of compliance post Enron and Worldcom all show that deception is a slippery slope. However the proximate cause of an equity wipe out is the delta between cash flow and debt. So whilst Valeant was bought low by misdemeanours being uncovered, it will ultimately go to zero because cash operational profit will be insufficient to satisfy the debt.

Avanti is not an outright fraud like Globo and the short hypothesis does not require it to be the case. By far the most telling news and observations game from Inmarsat and Eutelsat, and ultimately Avanti who kind of had to mention it. If rates have declined, then there is simply no hope for Avanti to increase its cash generated by operations enough to pay down the debt. Indeed it could well be even worse than that. I wouldn't like to be a bondholder in Avanti, never mind a shareholder.

Weakening data rates both accelerates the bear case and makes an equity raise less likely. The Telegraph article is insignificant in this context. I also think it does a disservice to longs who would be happy to get out on financial data but are suspicious of specious arguments.

[hpcg] 14/5/2016 18:34

Really there isn't much reason to talk about the Telegraph article at this time. It's the current cash balance, cash revenue, cash cost and the prospective values of those metrics where analysis will give the most insight into where the share price is heading.

[chriscallen] 14/5/2016 15:47

But of course TW has never done that!

Let's wait until Monday.

[elrico] 14/5/2016 14:36

And the sole purpose for faking a live link....real in investors on bogus claims. I'm no lawyer, but I suggest that is fraud. Furthermore, Williams is so bombastic, he bragged about it. Wow!!

[slashertheslash] 14/5/2016 13:35

The article notes:

When founders David Williams and David Bestwick got started, they would dazzle customers by showing them a live satellite link up. Instructions tapped into one computer would be beamed up into space and back down again to set software in motion on another.

The only thing is that the link-up wasn’t live. And there was nothing being beamed to the second computer.

see:


That sets out a scenario where Avanti faked the presentation claiming that there was a live satellite link up when actually there wasn't and they had to *hide* their employee so that the client wouldn't realise that they were having the wool pulled over their eyes.

When you type "what the article actually said" it would be better if you could actually follow up those words with "what the article actually said"!


Slasher

[accrillium] 14/5/2016 02:32

Was it you tw mentioned in the podcast elrico?

[scantrader] 14/5/2016 02:28

Good on you el

[elrico] 13/5/2016 22:42

tychee - I am only important to my boss, her in doors and my children, I am nobody here, fact! But yes, I do have an issue, it is with very poor management and bullies. I commented periodically here until Monday, I did not have much to add that had not already been by others, much better at the maths than I, for example. However, when management seek to shut me up, AVN lawyers in this case, via ADVFN, I feel obliged to give them the proverbial finger and remind them we still live in a democratic society, though I accept some here wish we did not.

If I were an investor I would want to know why AVN want to bully a nobody? I did not post any falsehood, I did not lie about the company, I merely quote comments by 3rd parties and posted the links to validate what I posted, nothing more. Yet AVN decided to bully me via ADVFN. IMHO when a company uses lawyers to shut someobody up instead of answering awkward questions, it is an obligation to short, as EK would say.

tomshunter thinks I am so important he seeks my attention and now so do you, so you both prove at least you along with AVN management think I am important enough to attack, which means I am doing an important task, as I see it.

It is easy to make a sweeping statement, like "I am puppet who repeats the same drivel over and over and have no knowledge of this market". You do so without knowing whom I am or my record as an investor, for 30 years I may add. And whilst I do not proclaim to know the market inside out, I do know how to identify a failed business model, false promises, failed targets...sound familiar, or are you still blinkered.

You claim I do not know the markets, Well, sir, it appears I know more about AVN than you at the VERY LEAST. I was short of AVN from 190p to 96p, lord knows where you entered this "growth company" but I bet you chase all the way down to 0p and won't have the good grace to admit you were wrong. Yes I make mistakes with some of my wilder punts, like ROSE and PHE, but I admit my mistakes and move on, some times I wish I had done so earlier. Show me an investor that don't make mistakes and ill show you a liar.

For example, JK warned me and other PHE would be diluted to oblivion because a major backer had option to revert his lone to shares, I chose not to believe his hypothesis, because I had assurance from the CEO that this would not happen. It didn't happen, but PHE failed to deliver on it's own expectations. Yes you can expect delays, but you have look beyond these and seek the reason why? The fact is, management, PR, IR, CEO, FD, they will lie to you, just like PHE management did to me. They have paid the price for doing so, but I lost money, could have been worse. So don't presume to tell me I don't know the markets, it's seedy ways, corruption, etc, I have the T shirt.

The one thing you will get from me, is the truth, I won't lie to anyone, I don't deceive people, but of course being open and transparent has its costs. Tell people you are short, and they want to line you against a wall.

[chriscallen] 13/5/2016 19:19

Except on LSE there is a posting saying that HL are showing the 3 x 1M share transactions just before the close as purchases. I've checked HLs site and that is true. So somebody is putting a very large sum on a good press release on Monday. Hope they are right.

[tychee100] 13/5/2016 18:39

Elrico, It seems you have some kind of issue, you seem to have been consumed by your own self importance, In my view you are a mere puppet who repeats the same drivel over and over and have no knowledge of this market.

[bwakem] 13/5/2016 17:17

Large trades on a strongly down day means that an II has had enough and wants out before the others try to dump.

[elrico] 13/5/2016 16:51

tomshunter - No idea what you said in post 532, I gave you the 4th tick, I just got sick of your other pseudonyms ticking you up all the time. :-D I bet you wish you have a few more premium accounts so you can tick me down some more, like that really hurts my feeling :-(

[elrico] 13/5/2016 16:48

Just think yourself luck scantrader you have not been bullied by AVN like they tried with me. If they hadn't opted for the bully-boy tactic I would not have been so prolific with my time here.

I wouldn't have minded if they had pointed me to a factually incorrect comment in my posts, but they did not.