Avanti Communications Share Discussion Threads

[redangel2612] 14/3/2016 20:45

This is the next AFREN. Booking revenue you don't have is a NO NO. Look what happened to QPP.

[accrillium] 14/3/2016 20:27

It don't mean anything because no money has changed hands, Avanti have not received any money from the deal, salehatever you want to call the transaction.

[nugacity] 14/3/2016 19:30

Booking bandwidth on Hylas 4 suggests the buyer has faith in Avanti for the long-term. Looks like insurance that they beat the rush once #1 and #2 are retired?

[elrico] 14/3/2016 15:43

Weatherman - I don't wish to rub salt into a wound, but I would urge you to do some research of what happened to AFREN last year. In short, it could not pay its debt, there was a stay of execution while negotiations went on with banks and bondholders, but in the end bondholders had their way. What happened to AFREN shareholders, they were holding shares not even worth a stamp. You are trading shares in the hope they are undervalued and bondholders buy bonds of course with a coupon price at an agreed percentage and a predetermined date when the loan is paid back to the bondholders. The yield on these bonds are not retuning the yield the bondholders want, hence the junk status, this should tell you AVN is not in a good position and while the maturity is June 2017 (off the top of my head – could be wrong here) AVN will need funds very soon, perhaps as early as June 2016 if the company fails to deliver on its promises. This as bears are gambling on, is unlikely to happen and even if Williams pulls a rabbit out of his pocket there is the accounting anomaly (that’s me being polite) for the tune of $25m AVN books as revenues and neglecting to admit it will not receive a penny of this and of course the $14m it actually has to stump up. Call it creative, cooking, fraud and stupidity, I care not, but this will come back and bite shareholders making any refinancing via a placing more dilutive in the region of bucket-shop fodder.

This is nothing more than my personal opinion, I am not trying to wind you up, or anyone for that matter. I have been in this situation myself and I can tell you I know how you must feel watching what you thought was a sound growth opportunity, but you have been fooled by the company and that is not a nice feeling either, nobody like to admit they have been suckered. The sooner you realise this the more of your hard earned you will have saved for another opportunity.

You will witness spikes from time to time, as AFREN did, in most cases this was shorts closing, booking profits, this is an opportunity to get out. Don’t view this as advice, it is not, it remains to be seen if the bears are corrects, but the signs are there.

I remain short and accept most people hate this practise, some companies deserve it, you don’t. At the end of the day, a bear view has a place not just bull views because both offer insight and counter arguments, one would hope.

[elrico] 13/3/2016 21:38

Weatherman - sorry, bond holders take control and equity is worth nothing to shareholders...they are way down the pecking order. As for the assets, there ain't much to fight over I'm afraid making future debt rescue looking unlikely unless Williams actually starts delivering on his promises and we all know the history here. Add dodgy accounting practice which is being investigated, AVN is looking grim.

[weatherman] 13/3/2016 21:02

OK elrico - explain this to us. If the bond holders don't get paid the worst that can happen for them is they get all the satellite assets, that if full
and well managed could be worth a lot more than the debt. If they don't get the assets they get 21% a year for the next few years.

So why not invest in the bonds because it seems they are not valued rationally ?

[elrico] 12/3/2016 20:33

Sorry peeps - Williams spin just isn’t working...as the old adage goes, you can fool some of the people some of the time! Haylas 1&2 have spare capacity and Haylas 4 or whatever it’s called will need funding before it gets kicked in to space at which point AVN shares will be severely diluted if AVN can fool enough people to cough up new funds. I suspect bond holders will have control before then. Bonds are yielding 21%, in case you did not know this is junk status which suggests equity is worthless.

[weatherman] 11/3/2016 16:30

Contracts are accumulative with a minimum starting fee, and they don't put out RNS for every deal i.e. Intersat.

[elrico] 11/3/2016 12:33

AVN pump RN's have less and less impact on the share price ..On the north trend at any rate.

[dangersimpson2] 11/3/2016 10:18

I would imagine the $1m is over several years starting from mid-2017.

Bentley Walker has a small company exemption which means they don't have to report revenues but these will be less than £6.5m to get the exemption:



Net Current Assets of £0.3m and Net Assets of £0.9m doesn't suggest significant scale:



So small and far in the future. There's a reason that this was a RNS-NON.

[jeffian] 11/3/2016 10:13

I bailed out some time ago on worries that they just weren't cutting it on cash generation, but I keep an eye on the RNS. So, although behind the curve on forecasts for existing satellites, they think it worth shouting about a contract some time in the future on a satellite that has yet to be launched? Hmmmm.

[weatherman] 11/3/2016 09:23

$1m plus contract. Contracts are coming in thick and fast, some announced through RNS, some not. Shorters must be getting worried.

"""Avanti will supply Bentley Walker, one of its key existing customers, with capacity on HYLAS 4 across Sub-Saharan Africa in a $1 million + commitment. HYLAS 4 is on-track to be launched in the first quarter of 2017. It is a 28GHz satellite and will complete Avanti's coverage of Europe, Africa and the Middle East."""

[bwakem] 11/3/2016 08:55

They'll run out of cash before the contract starts. Also an RNS for a $1m contract? Seriously?

[wilksey1] 11/3/2016 07:39

Bentley Walker signs million dollar contract on HYLAS 4 with Avanti Communications

[weatherman] 10/3/2016 20:12

[Customers going over to Ka band... ].Intersat Ltd [seems a major player in Africa....] ... a Service Provider of VSAT equipment, has signed a new contract with Avanti Communications, a leading provider of satellite data communications services in Europe, the Middle East and Africa.

“Avanti’s flexible Ka-band satellite technology enables us to provide our customers with high speed and quality broadband which other bands may not deliver, breaking our customers’ communication boundaries.”
Tweet this
Avanti’s HYLAS 2 Ka-band satellite will provide Intersat with capacity over iDirect platform, to deliver broadband services to its enterprise, government, and defence customers, as well as to GSM operators.

Subrata Roy, Chief Technical Officer of Intersat Ltd., commented: “Avanti’s flexible Ka-band satellite technology enables us to provide our customers with high speed and quality broadband which other bands may not deliver, breaking our customers’ communication boundaries.”

Matthew O’Connor, Chief Operating Officer at Avanti, said: “The flexibility and high quality of Avanti’s satellite services allow Intersat to provide affordable broadband internet to rural and underserved Africa.”
hxxp://www.intersat.ae/index.php/home/companyoverview

[wilksey1] 10/3/2016 11:36

Intersat Ltd. signs new contract with Avanti Communications

[michaelmouse] 07/3/2016 17:58

"My trailing stop came within .25 of being closed today." Oh please! LOL.

[elrico] 07/3/2016 17:46

hpcg - agree with most of your post. Ref stops, I thinks it's sensible to have them, especially if short but not unrealistically tight. My trailing stop came within .25 of being closed today. The trailing stop is aimed at locking in 75p gain but willing to sacrifice 15p retrace. Obviously a trailing stop give you flexibility and protection once you're in profit of course.

[michaelmouse] 07/3/2016 17:42

hpcg - If it works for you then who am I to question your logic, although

"a 50% hit rate is indeed a very good, and I would think my record is much less than that. Under those circumstances money is made by running winning positions and closing losers as soon as possible"

but that isn't what you're doing is it? Otherwise you'd run AVN down to zero since you don't think it'll survive? I'd say you're taking profits and losses early. You then contradict yourself with "I rarely use stops, as you are quite correct natural volatility can take out all sorts of positions." So how are you getting out of losing positions early? Guessing surely?

Anyway, let's leave it there. My logic suggests that those tactics would leave someone at break-even at best, but if you're making profits then great and well done to you.

Your logic would work for me if you were a long term buy and hold investor, but you appear to be in and out AVN on a frequent basis?

Good luck.

[hpcg] 07/3/2016 17:23

michaelmouse - indeed a 50% hit rate is indeed a very good, and I would think my record is much less than that. Under those circumstances money is made by running winning positions and closing losers as soon as possible. This really means looking for sustainable trends. Avanti is approximately moving sideways, and at this juncture the market as a whole is very difficult to read. It is unattractive to be short or long at the moment IMO. I don't want my money tied up here unless a trend really gets going. I don't think there is a downward price catalyst in the immediate future, so once again no point being short.

I rarely use stops, as you are quite correct natural volatility can take out all sorts of positions. I do sometimes use them on SP500 stocks where there might be a reversal up or down to be confirmed by a gap in the relative direction - morning star / evening star type patterns.

elrico - Anyone who over stretches is likely to lose money. One needs to account for a 100% swing either way. Making use of margin allows one to increase the number of positions, especially to run long - short. I don't think the decision making is any different between shares / ETFs / commodities funds etc, though options are another matter. It isn't the product, it is the end user which is at fault.

[michaelmouse] 07/3/2016 16:46

hpcg - There is nothing personal aimed at you or elrico. What you do is your prerogative of course. I have merely used you both to illustrate a wider point which is that unless you look longer term then your chances of success are limited by a guessing game where the odds of winning are 50/50.

Firstly, tight stop losses on relatively illiquid shares are ridiculous. It is conceivable that AVN could have shot up to 115p or higher by midday and then tanked in the afternoon. This merely serves to illustrate a wider point which is that short term punting is a 50/50 bet. I have no idea where the share price will end up in the short term. As a holder, I am still hopeful that AVN will prove the doubters incorrect over the next few years and my original investment will pay off. If they do succeed as a business then I am pretty confident that I will eventually see a handsome profit. However, AVN is highly speculative. Meanwhile, I can just wait.

Your earlier post illustrates that you are just guessing which way the price is going in the short term otherwise you would have answered my question i.e. when will you open a short again? You're simply guessing when the price might turn down again. It might turn down again now, at 115p, at 150p, at 900p or never. Do you think the price is going to zero? If so, then opening a short position and sticking with it is always going to be the most profitable option in the end unless you believe you can read charts and accurately predict turning points consistently. Personally, I've never met anybody who can do this. They're usually correct 50% of the time.

Finally, I have been accused on another thread of having a vendetta against TW and shareprophets. This is not the case. I have merely illustrated their poor share recommendations to balance out their boasts. I could easily do the same for any tipping service. Essentially, all tipsters cover so many companies that again I am sure that they are correct 50% of the time.

Those who can do, those who can't become share tipsters.

[hpcg] 07/3/2016 14:49

How can having a trading position in draw down be "more profitable"? The only reason for doing so is when it can be very difficult to get a short position at all and one has to choose a less than advantageous scenario - most likely on some kind of recovery bounce. The higher the entry price the greater the reward, and the lower the loss if results are good.

How is spread betting different from any other instrument? There is no obligation to use leverage. Decision making is the same is with any other investment choice. It is all about probabilities.