Augean Share Discussion Threads

[lbo] 24/7/2014 21:53

You mean 4 and 4.9p!



They also say "this would support our base case valuation of 57.5p/share, while a sustained outperformance in E&C and RWS could push this on towards our 77.7p fair value"

[cerrito] 24/7/2014 21:17

see that the edison update report out today has eps this year at 4 and - at 3.9p

[morton2011] 23/7/2014 13:56

Financial highlights 2013
- Revenue including landfill tax increased by 17% to £23.4m (2012: £20.0m)

Landfill tax increased by £ 8 per tonne 1 April so would expect revenues to increase
Not clear on an adjusted basis either how to compare revenue
So unclear if there is any real growth

"Landfill ..continued to grow the volumes...Total waste volumes into the landfill sites during the first six months were 151,125 tonnes" Last years H1 results stated: "Total volumes were 139,779 tonnes (H1 2012: 192,087 tonnes)" so could be written that volumes remain significantly below 2012..

Agree a bit of a yawn with any positives from LLW balanced by normal issues of not making any money in anything other than Landfill but at least no bad news. HOLD for me

[cerrito] 23/7/2014 12:11

For me the pre close trading update a bit of a yawn;a reminder that this company always subject to external issues...ie poor weather in Q1 affecting North Sea activity and issues with supplies of blood.
As they did not give a comparable figure or landfill volumes for H1 13 I smelt a rat but my fears that they were obfuscating a decline in volumes were unfounded
as last year's volume was 139 m and this year's 151m ie a useful increase.
Noted CEO's comment that they continue to trade in line with market expectations. Digital Look tells me that revenue is forecast to go up to £44m in 14 compared to £43.49 in 13 but eps to go up from 4.2p to 5.29p in 2014 which would put them on a pe of 11.8x
So if this is the market expectation they are referring to and indeed they do make the forecast levels of profitability that would be good and indeed the share price could move 50p+ but let's wait for that.

[lbo] 09/7/2014 15:30

Sounds like M&A about to pick up in the sector!

[site manager] 26/6/2014 14:28

LBO - I wondered if they might buy AUG.

[lbo] 25/6/2014 12:44

Shanks, the waste group, was 2½ dearer at 104p after analysts at broker Goldman Sachs lifted their stock recommendation to "buy", principally on the belief that the small-capper may be taken over.
Shanks, they said, is "a credible bid candidate given its relatively small size, low valuation and ongoing M&A activity in the European waste market

[lbo] 24/6/2014 16:22

Henderson global continue to buy and now over 21%

[cerrito] 05/6/2014 08:59

Had hoped to make the AGM but cannot; look forward to any comment from anyone who can make it.

[lbo] 11/5/2014 15:39

Augean is well placed with market drivers and has a clear strategy to deliver enhanced shareholder returns by focusing the group on value-added services to customers and through a clear focus on efficiency. All divisions are expected to contribute to the group's progress. We model various valuation scenarios, which highlight that even our conservative base case scenario yields a fair value of 57.5p/share, equating to 14.4x CY14 EPS. If the group is successful in driving profitable growth more quickly, our mid case valuation moves to 77.7p/share.

[morton2011] 10/5/2014 09:03

Cerrito:

Catching up as well and thanks for the analysis.

Landfill tax and landfill volumes never seem to add up - its currently £ 80 a tonne for LFT would mean LFT of £ 11 million + using the volumes you quote. There are various exemptions and 'loopholes' industry use but LFT is the main reason volumes are reducing. Still the jewel in Augeans business in my view but less valuable each year while LFT increases so far above inflation.

Capital - my sense is that capital will stay high. The move into more capital intensive business in Oil and Nuclear sector will at the very least throw up a lot of maintenance issues and many companies effectively capitalise replacement expenditure

Waste Mgmt business - not sure the price was that good. My RNS history does not go back that far but think the businesses were bought for £ 15 million + they sold.

On the positive side nuclear and Oil Services in North Sea are good strategic moves, previous CEO did start these.

Overall there is a sound business but not worth £ 40 million on my analysis so will continue to watch.

[cerrito] 04/4/2014 19:48

Just caught up with full year results.
Interested to read the Chairman's statement and his indication that the previous CEO does/did not seem to have what it takes to take AUG forward but also that the Board is very much behind the new strategy-ie are taking full responsibility.
I find the Goodwill section one of the most interesting. For some reason(and it would be good to know why) they increased he discount rate from 11% to 13%.
Note that in the Land resources division they are talking about 5 years of flat revenue streams because of competition and so they need to operate more efficiently. Given the increase in the discount rate the headroom for the impairment has gone down but less than the sensitivity of a 2% increase in the discount rate-ie the headroom has gone up on a constant discount rate basis. Be interesting to know if they figure a zero growth in revenues from their main revenue stream as being best case for forecasting purposes.
In the Oil and Gas they talk about 3% revenue increases till 2016 and 2% thereafter ie even here nothing to get the blood racing; adjusted for increase in interest rates the headroom has decreased a tad.
Could not find a Going Concern Statement but given the extension, of the HSBC facilities and the low amount of finance charges I am relaxed on this
Other points
• My sense is that capex in 2014 will be lower than 2013's £6.8m and more in line with 2012's £3.6m.
• Interesting to see the reduction in volumes of hazardous waste over the years: in 2011 204k tonnes;2012 189 and 2013 143.
• They say they continue to remain active in the construction sector so should benefit from the uptick in construction-also fact that there has not been all that much weather related loss of activity.
• Good that they got such a good price for the waste management business and wonder how these companies will be able to make money.
The big picture was that there seemed to be an upbeat tone
I have been here for 7 years and my last trade was a small purchase 3 years ago. I see little downside risk but neither do I see a big move upwards ie will be in the 40's for the foreseeable future. Appreciate there is a chance of corporate activity-after all the reason I bought in at 141p all those years ago was because 151 was a dead cert to buy and we will need to leave that to the Gods.

[lbo] 31/3/2014 15:21

Augean expresses confidence with 40 per cent dividend hike

[lbo] 28/2/2014 16:39

UBS increasing over 9%

[lbo] 28/1/2014 09:21

Augean confident as revenues risehttp://www.thebusinessdesk.com/mobile/yorkshire/news/571215-augean-confident-as-revenues-rise.html?news_section=5

[lbo] 16/1/2014 00:04

Schroders now hold over 19%!

A lot of opportunistic bids coming in for companies that are turning around and looking like profits are going to grow significantly going forward and bidders looking to buy them on the cheap before the earnings upturn kicks in

[david77] 15/1/2014 11:44

What price?