Asian Growth Properties Share Discussion Threads

[mr.oz] 28/8/2003 00:32

Still on the sidlleines :->
"Weak Buy Candidate - Aug 26, 2003
Has risen 2133% since the bottom on 22 Aug 2002 at 3.00. Has broken the floor of the rising trend, which indicates a weaker initial rising rate. The stock has marginally broken down through the support at p 68.00. An established break predicts a further decline. The average difference between the highest and lowest price of the month is 367%. The risk is therefore high."

[mbradley] 26/8/2003 20:06

Mr Hat Re: Timing of extra shares.

From the company's announcement "The Loan Notes are automatically convertible into New Ordinary Shares immediately upon the Resolutions being passed at the EGM, as further set out below......."

The reason you are not seeing any large sales is that they institutions probably can't sell them to anyone. Who's going to buy the shares before the EGM with the chance of a big write down?

[fouroaks] 26/8/2003 13:58

Mr Hat - Thank you! A concise response to my concerns at last! Unfortunately I have been too busy with work, domestic issues, and other shares to have spent much time on AGP, so I was hoping someone would explain how they hadn't gone completely down the tube since the EGM announcement.

I am not too concerned about the retrace, as you say it went up so fast it would be unlikely not to do so. My concern was as to whether it was indeed a retrace, or a gradual halving in value.

Now I understand :-)

[mr hat] 26/8/2003 13:44

The extra shares mentioned do not come on stream all at the same time, but are loan notes convertible (at any time) into ordinary shares after 30 September 2004. That's too long a period to have any adverse impact on the stock, assuming that the company's newly stated business plan holds together in the meantime.

The retrace we've had has been on very small volumes which is a good sign, as this indicates mostly retail, and not institutional selling. Besides, if there really was any hesitation on their part regarding share dilution, we would never have seen the share at these levels in the first place.

One also should not forget how far and fast this stock has come since early May, and even now it is still up some 600%, after being up some 900% at it's recent highs. A retrace should have been expected and viewed as healthy, in order to attain higher levels still.

The fact that nothing adverse came out of the recent AGM is also a good sign, meaning that current plans are on course.

Would be looking to add on any weakness, especially at these levels, and assuming markets hold together in general. The stock has shown before that it moves very sharply and suddenly. Unless one has excellent timing, you simply cannot afford to be out, especially if institutional buying picks up again.

[fouroaks] 26/8/2003 13:36

mbradley - I share your concern, I just can't see how the price is not going to go down as a result of the new share issue. What I still can't understand is why isn't everyone thinking this and causing an even more severe crash??

Currently still holding, but unless someone can explain why I shouldn't then I'll be pressing the button pretty soon!

[mbradley] 26/8/2003 09:41

Between last Thursday and this morning I have now sold all my AIT shares simply because of the share dilution. I think there is great potential in this company but I'm thinking that I'll be able to buy them all back again (and more!) after the EGM.

By the way, some 'Trades' are still not showing up! I sold 7392 @ 72p first thing this morning and they are still not showing up (9-40am). Does this happen with other AIM shares?

Godd luck to everyone if you're still holding. Hope I've read it correct but my main concern is to protect my capital and keep bank some profits. I originally bought in between 43 & 46p.

[potentials] 25/8/2003 00:11

no doubt the share options were put in place so that management could take advantage of the low share price at the time of release of interims - a cheek i know but at least they had initially come in at 85p in the nov 02 rescue package so i for one am not too bitter.

at the time had they suggested that this funding come by way of rights issue it is likely that the share price may have dived from its level of 27p on that date to next to nothing as shareholders/investors would have taken it as a sign of ongoing problems plus the failure of shareholders to participate in the nov 02 rescue package.

the additional funding was therefore acceptable at the time in my view as a shareholder and the increase in price in my view took that into account and the issue of these 20m shares now with an option price of 25p does not change anything as the rise from 27p to date took place in knowledge that this was about to happen - perhaps some private investors that jumped on the gavy train with little research did not realise but the true drivers of the price in the longer term (institutions) would no doubt have known and taken this into account in their research.

i think that the eps provided to date will have to be adjusted to take the extra 20m after the egm but same comments as above apply here - the real gains will come in at stage 3.

the apparent high price of this stock is in my view justified - excellent product/wide geographical reach of company/ at stage 2 of turnaround plan with final stage 3 perhaps just 1-2 years away ie growth phase/global network of partners that will be used to promote the product.

far from being a concept stock which in many cases have sky high valuations (i could name some but will refrain as i hold some such stocks) AGP has real possibilities which are no longer than 1 - 3 years off and in such a case a higher share price is well warranted IMHO.

obviously there are risks - dependent on 1 main product/stage 3 may necessitate further funding-dilution/over 50% of company will be owned by a group of shareholders etc but again nothing has change since june 03 on this.

the recent fall in price is a concern but has happened on relatively small volumes - the real drivers on price will the the institutions which will but for the longer term once they decide to do so - the initial rise to date i think was driven by institutional buying some of which was existing holders increasing their stakes - this seems to have dried up for the moment so the move down may be mainly led by private investors getting bored/worried and realising profits before the price goes down further.

i think that this may well continue for the short term or until more institutions come on board (if at all) - the fact that AGP does not seem to be very forthcoming with news etc means that it is likely to be below the radar of potential stocks being kept under review by potential investors but if as promised in its results release AGP updates the market more frequently on progress being made then this may change if such news is good.

so i am happy for the resolutions to be passed at the egm and i think that there is a danger that the share price may well drift further in the period to at least nov 03 when interims are released and mayby beyond until we enter stage 3 (growth stage) but i have decided to stick with it at least in the circumstances as they stand at present.

note that i am a shareholder as my views above would indicate and i appreciate a non-shareholder at this present time may well have a different view.

[potentials] 24/8/2003 23:42

some 2 months ago i watched by chance a program on bbc open university late at night (by chance) - it was a case study on a crm project being undertaken by a uk building society/former building society (if memory serves me right it was Britannia) - it had employed an it firm based in Dublin to head the project and was about how such a project has to be planned, the difficulties encountered in defining the requirements of the proposed system from the wide variety of users, facilitating the recording of the data and most of all the eventual task of the programmers in trying to develop the required software.

to me it was an eye opener into the complexities involved and the expense that such a project could cost an entity in trying to develop its own specific system and the potential cost of continuing to keep same up to date and what if it gets it wrong - cost implications etc !!

my first thought was - if only i could send them a letter and suggest that they shelve the project and make contact with AIT !!! - i cannot absolutely confirm that it was britannia but is was one of them (building society stuck in my mind) and the purpose of the program was to show how a project needs to be properly planned etc.

[mr.oz] 24/8/2003 20:35

Excellent post potentials- the key point for me being eps values are taking into account the extra shares to be issued - as the recent revaluation for eps in 2005 coincided with June's RNS re the EGM etc.
If this is NOT the case , then IMO , further falls may occur.....who can tell us for sure ( Arbuthnot?)
I will be looking for signs of instituional activity again , (e.g. - remember a large 100k trade at 75p ish on its way up)There was real shortage of shares too , that is no longer the case, and this too will be another big buy signal for me.
The recent update in trading was a tad disappointing , as no new News was forthcoming and they did promise this.So we can assume , nothing to report...
I agree , small vols have been responsible for this retrace and am looking forward to the action this week ,and further points of view ,to give some more direction...

[fouroaks] 24/8/2003 09:55

Anyone - mbradley says, "Current eps figures are based on existing number of shares in issue & will be diluted by one third after the EGM.".

But aren't they issueing a further 20m shares over the existing 25m, which makes the dilution nearer to one half?

If this were the case then...

a) Why would any shareholder vote in favour of it?

b) Why isn't every man, dog and institution selling?

Am I missing something here (or perhaps being just plain thick!)?

Just got back from a week's holiday, so not fully up to date with events.

[mr.oz] 24/8/2003 00:28

phew - was it something we said?

looking again at the e.p.s figures , they have recently been revised down for 2005 from 9.4p to 6.1p -- (2004 @3.2p)
This may be wholly on the basis of expected extra shares in issue.(from 25mill to 45mill), If so , then I'm obviuosly a lot happier- no revissions in the future.
e.p.s. will be nearly doubling over the next 2 years, but the amount of shares in issue will obviuosly nearly do the same , so , in effect , the share price may not do a lot.

At 70p, forward p/e ratios 2004 = 22 / 2005 = 11.5.....hence my post above that its around fair price ; but already? I feel we need a reason to expect this to actually "happen" before we price in these figures , i.e contracts, next set of results, etc etc.
Am I being too pessimistic?
All thoughts would be appreciated.(Tech - you had much higher target than these levels)

[mbradley] 23/8/2003 00:20

Please explain folks - or am I missing something here?

Part of today's news

"If not previously converted, the Loan Notes have a term of five years (from 10
July 2003) and may be redeemed in whole or in part by the Company at any time
after 30 September 2004. Interest at a rate of LIBOR minus 2 per cent. will
accrue on a daily basis and is payable to Loan Notes Subscribers quarterly in
arrears (save that the first such payment is to be made on 30 April 2004) unless
conversion has occurred on or prior to 31 October 2003, in which event no
interest will accrue or be payable.


The Loan Notes are automatically convertible into New Ordinary Shares
immediately upon the Resolutions being passed at the EGM, as further set out
below."

So there will be 20,000,000 extra shares issued after the EGM? If that is true, surely we ought to be selling? Shares dilution and all that.

Is that how others read it?

[mr.oz] 22/8/2003 14:52

I am out , at the moment , as you know, so dont think this is a deramp....
I feel this has gone too far too fast , but am happy to trade it on the potentials and sentiment that seem to accompany the share.(undoubtedly , this has the right to be around this price ...but already?)
You have spoken re. the dilution of e.p.s. before mbradley , and on that you can only be right about.
DYOR and good luck

[mbradley] 22/8/2003 14:46

scotty

The previous announcements didn't give dates for conversion. There appeared to be a number of years for this to happen. Today's news puts a date on it. Is this the directors taking advantage of the share price bouyancy to convert quickly and get it over with?

Current eps figures are based on existing number of shares in issue & will be diluted by one third after the EGM. All this must put downward pressure on the price wouldn't you think?

[scotty500] 22/8/2003 13:28

See the announcement on 26th June.

[mr.oz] 22/8/2003 09:31

True -- I put in a limit buy at 75p , and got for less than 74p.Was very pleased (lucky)that this must have been one of the cheaper deals of the week.Have been on the wrong end of Auto limit trading lately and have no holding once again ,but am reasonably content with that.

[scotty500] 22/8/2003 09:26

Nope missed the low earlier this week by about a nano second. Nice one anyway - plus nothing wrong with 6%.

[mr.oz] 22/8/2003 09:22

morning scotty - do you expect anything else from the agm then?

ps. - have "traded" these again ,buying from less than 75p ,this week,
albeit it for modest gain, (+ 6%)
you too?

[scotty500] 22/8/2003 09:15

agree mr.oz - notice the agm is before the egm, so it least we know when it is now !

[mr.oz] 22/8/2003 08:49

Can not see anything new here other than maybe the deferral of the debt ; the trading "update" is ..... nothing to report.

[scotty500] 21/8/2003 11:01

so basically it could go up or down or flatten out !

SYM worth a look while these are taking a breather - I am holding these already so DYOR etc.

[mr.oz] 21/8/2003 10:49

Tom Houggaard( City Index chappie) has been pontificating on bloomberg that we are at a "cross roads" - despite being overbought , the indexes could fly higher for the remainder of the month , before flattening off for the remainder of the year.e.g. ftse 4450 ish.
A kind of launchpad , for some stocks before settling to a new level.....sounds good , Ja?
he makes me laugh, tho ,as he always gives a reason why he could be wrong.
(reminds me of muppet's swiss chef)

[mbradley] 21/8/2003 08:47

Question to Goggin (or anyone else for that matter).

How do you produce and paste the charts like the ones at the beginning of this thread? I've got seem them on other discussion boards.

Thanks in advance.

[mr.oz] 20/8/2003 19:49

seems support around the mid 70's - institutional activity may be responsible for the wax and wane from here up to 90p's and back.

[brain duffy] 20/8/2003 14:34

fair enough - i guess i missed the small print as i was too busy during that time watching my losses get bigger, and then frozen, and then resume 4/100 dilution to almost double the loss in one go - hard to beat that!!! heh (and yes i can laugh now, time the healer and all that...