Ashley House Share Discussion Threads

[mo123] 06/1/2014 13:19

I'm keeping faith in the co. as they said "growth is on track to be delivered", adding that there will be "a distinct 2nd half bias".

During a transitional period and a dearth of news the share price has inevitably slipped. However, with Pershing building a stake, a WHI target of 32p and care housing growth on the increase it's beginning to look decent value again on a medium term basis imo. As ever DYOR. Mo

[hezza123] 04/1/2014 00:53

Seems the buying frenzy has ceased now that the chart's looking a bit fragile and a bout of profit-taking has ensued. Must admit, I did top-slice some at 28ish, but am happy to sit on my core holding and await further developments without feeling overly exposed. Discount to TNAV is decent again so doubt the buyers will be away for long.

[scrabble1975] 03/1/2014 22:15

Anyone got any idea why we're not seeing buying at these levels? Getting driven down on small volume, and as CR says, would expect it to push north on buying, even in small volume, but nobody is buying...Is this that under the radar? The last statement gave much to be positive about, particularly the incentive relating to the performance target of 37p etc...

[gymratt] 23/12/2013 12:48

Blimey! Well there's my Christmas present sorted..just grabbed a 1k parcel ;)

[scrabble1975] 23/12/2013 12:09

Thanks very much CR :)

[cockneyrebel] 23/12/2013 12:04

Even the most liquid stocks are volatile at the moment, Christmas market, my brokers normally have 7 bods there, they are running with 2 all this week on a rota - that's how quiet things are. A few sells and mm's mark down, a few buys and they mark up - especially with the illiquid stuff as they can be sure of balancing the books as easily in a mkt like this that's quiet imo.

Same every year end imo - stuff moves all over the pace. A few buys and this could be up 1p on the day just as easy imo.

CR

[tudes100] 23/12/2013 11:56

volume very light, think we'll see a fair bit of volatility over Xmas period as trading volumes are thin

[scrabble1975] 23/12/2013 11:50

What's going on here today?

[adam] 13/12/2013 00:31

i met the Pershing guy at an AGM if memory serves a few years ago with his accountant. Young, smart, entrepreneurial type guy. don't think he is anything to do with Cheviot or otherwise.

[paleje] 12/12/2013 22:49

It's true the words used in the statement were wishy washy and wouldn't have attracted new investors unless they looked back and took a view, and I suppose why would they when there are plenty of places to put new money where the story is more plainly put.

But I think CR's right, new chairman different style of storytelling, praising his predecessor but not making if clear enough that his growth plans are still on track. That bit about the two thirds of (6)current deals required to succeed to clinch this years figures was the bit that got me. I reckon the chances are better than they let on, so what happens when 5 complete. Or better still, 6:)

That's when we get one of those RNSs we all love with phrases like "significantly exceed" or "materially ahead of" etc. I admit I'm in the glass half full camp and acknowledge the other view too but I hold and expect to see them edge back up as contracts get confirmed.

[cockneyrebel] 12/12/2013 21:10

Yep, agree with the posts above mainly. If that was your decision IC2 then that's fair enough.

My take was that there's a new Chairman here and he would want to be guarded imo, I think there is an element of risk as with all AIM that's higher than fully listed but if they only need two thirds of those deals to meet forecasts and WH Ireland are raising forecasts on that statement then my suspicion is that these deals are near to fruition but they can't yet be counted as done.

The one thing that interests me is the chart since Cheviot took 6.7& in Sep. That came shortly after the appointment of Christopher Lyons. Directors bought just after his appointment too which said to me that they were pleased with what was going on imo. The chart changes then too from long flat periods to a stepped move up.

Is Cheviot's holding of 6.69% within Pershing Securities? If so they may have gone over 7% today with that holding announcement after the close imo.

I think you have to have an element of faith but the new Chairman's quote was that the previous Chairman's optimistic views recently, before his appointment were well founded.

It's the little things like that that make me feel something positive is going on here. Will continue to hold myself but best wishes wherever you re-invest it.

CR

[tudes100] 12/12/2013 12:00

Good post IC2, welcome your thoughts.
I don't think there is any doubt the ASH language was a little guarded and could have been more positive which as you say casts a degree of uncertainty on the second half. However I think the overall macro picture is still very positive for the company and as 1-3 year opportunity I think it has strong legs.
I'm staying in for the time being.

[masurenguy] 12/12/2013 09:37

Thanks IC2 - intelligent and informed contrarian opinion is always welcome as far as I am concerned. I think that the concerns that you expressed that prompted your exit were perfectly reasonably but the issues raised are always of course going to be subject to individual interpretation.

I think that the language used in the statement left some potential room for shortfalls in expected performance in H2 and clearly the revenue streams are not uniform since they are anticipating a heavier weighting in H2 than was previously the case. That kind of expectation is always an factor of some concern in any business since it could genuinely be a timing issue or management just employing optimism to recover from an H1 shortfall.

My positives are the increasing order pipeline, the reducing administration costs, the declining debt and the current technicals. I also like the structure of the MSOS which currently incentivises them to achieve and sustain a 50% uplift in the share price. I'm a bit wary of the declining gross margin which I previously mentioned in post #552. However, my overall interpreation is based upon the positives outweighing the negaqtives and as a longer term investor, rather than a trader, I'm prepared to be a little patient.

[irenekent] 12/12/2013 09:36

I always say, if you have concerns, talk to the company. They often know more about their business than speculators on bulletin boards.

[interceptor2] 12/12/2013 09:20

I was one of the investors who sold my holdings as the market opened on Tuesday, I don't always state on BB where the main sentiment is bullish. Because it can be distruptive and as welcome as a porcupine at a nudist colony.

So hopefully my reasons for selling might be of interest to some, and it wasn't a clear cut decision. Even though the headline numbers were poor, this wasn't the main reason for my sell. The reason was in the tone and wording of the statement. First is the statement "enable company to meet it's market expectations" which sounds fine, but I like to see a timeframe atached to that statement like "current year or full year" It leaves the question, which year will they meet market expectations.

Later on in the statement they say "Expect to meet our profit expectations for the year" well thats a little ambiguous, I don't know what their own expectations are, but I would concede that they may guide their house broker to their own expectations.

If I have read the statement correctly, then their own expectations depend on two thirds of £50m of business being secured, that is currently with the planning authorities. With the year end to the 30th April, this does add a little uncertainty for me.

And a final red flag for me was the comment that revenue stream is not uniform and could be uneven.

So these are the reasons for my sale, yet my style of investing is to adopt Jim Slaters approach of being a nervious holder, and likely to sell on even a slight negative. But I will keep ASH on my watchlist in case my concerns are unfounded, then if they issue perhaps a bullish trading update, and can always buy back. At that point I would hold my hands up and happily admit that I was wrong.

I wish shareholders here well, and hopefully I will have to buy back in at a higher price. Then we would all be happy.

Regards ic2...

[masurenguy] 12/12/2013 07:29

I really like executive option schemes that clearly aligns interests with those of the external shareholders!
These "target price option trigger schemes" should become the norm in my opinion where directors and managers have to achieve an ambitious future growth agenda which warrants an additional risk-free financial incentive. Too many schemes are just based upon a simple uplift on the price ruling on the day award options were issued or scandalously, in my view, even at a discount to prices ruling on that day.

"The Company has granted share options to current executive Directors and members of senior management in respect of 5,225,000 ordinary shares, representing 8.92% of the current issued
share capital of the Company........The options, which have an exercise price of 15p (which was
approved at the AGM) will not be exercisable unless and until the Company's share price equals
or exceeds 37p for a period of at least 20 consecutive working days and upon exercise is at or
above the 37p threshold." RNS Number : 3015P - 30 September 2013.

[petersinthemarket] 11/12/2013 15:38

Agreed First things >> Recent intraday briefly went down to 22p, but soon recovered. Best 6mth Hi was 27.38p and currently trying to maintain its previous base support at 23p, so a fall of about 16%. Will have taken out any speculators using 10% or 15% stops. Disappointing for some but hardly the end of the world. In fact, for me, it has seemed to be a good opportunity to add. I believe the reaction will later be seen as an over reaction and the share price climb will begin again. The balance of opinion is that ASH should have a bigger second half to produce the major part of the annual improvement expected by the BoD. I have seen several guestimates on this and FWIW mine is 40%/60%. I suggest long term holders should not lose heart. I'm staying in.

For anyone interested, ASH's ''Sister Stock'', that is a similar stock in a similar business, is Pochins (PCH). You may care to compare both 5yr share price charts against each other where you will find that both have similar beautiful bowl shapes. Both charts suggest much further to go for those with patience [but note DYOR, there are suggestions of disposal bubbling away at PCH].
GL, pete

[first_things] 11/12/2013 10:52

"Company to meet its market expectations".

Growing pipeline shows significant growth and progress with the business.

All looks like very exciting and a great investment opportunity.

I thought the Interim report was positive and therefore slightly perplexed to the markets reaction.

Ashley House could comfortably pay a 2p dividend in the next financial year so a 5% yield would give a 40p share price.

[cockneyrebel] 10/12/2013 21:06

Trouble is the headline numbers were all many punters looked at imo.


Someone sucked up 200K+ late in the day - mm's were happily taking sells without marking down.

CR

[topvest] 10/12/2013 20:54

Seem to go from one disappointment to the next does Ashley House - very poor interims in terms of headline numbers.