Ashley House Share Discussion Threads

[nickg2] 10/12/2013 08:32

New to ASH, seen the drop but I'm holding and going to add some more as I believe the RNS held some positive points and greenroom78 has pointed out.

[greenroom78] 10/12/2013 08:32

Fundamentals haven't changed though, just got cheaper.

[robbo35] 10/12/2013 08:32

Snapped up a few of these, buying for the medium term, surely oversold this morning?

[napoleon 14th] 10/12/2013 08:32

Wow - been watching & telling myself "you missed it".
Prospects unchanged imo, but pullback looks hard, if overdone.
Client cancelation today means I can watch....

[scrabble1975] 10/12/2013 08:31

I sadly haven't! Lol Bought in on what look like promising fundamentals, am holding, but not for more than another 10% drop from here...

[bigbigdave] 10/12/2013 08:30

Added a few

[greenroom78] 10/12/2013 08:28

Have been for a long time Scrabble.

[greenroom78] 10/12/2013 08:28

Easy to look at the headline numbers and think negative but falling debt and a stronger H2 pointing towards (at least) in line distort those IMO.

[scrabble1975] 10/12/2013 08:27

IG only taking closing deals.

[norbert colon] 10/12/2013 08:16

Morning guys - I am holding firm too and look forward to H2.

[cockneyrebel] 10/12/2013 08:12

Had a great run and a few traders want instant gratification and scalping profits. I'll be holding, no interest in trying to duck in and out and get hit by the spread - illiquid too - small trades have an exaggerated effect a lot of the time.

All imo/dyor etc.

CR

[greenroom78] 10/12/2013 08:05

Down on light volume so far. Small trades look like sells with larger buys going through (unless I'm mistaken?). Sellers following MMs lead maybe, but maybe they just need/want stock. AIMO though.

[greenroom78] 10/12/2013 07:55

No point in suggesting they'll be ahead just yet IMO, I guess they don't want to be counting chickens too early. Agree it looks promising though.

[paleje] 10/12/2013 07:47

So if they succeed with two thirds of the current planning and leasing applications current year forecast numbers are in the bag. What about if they do better than two thirds, I would have thought with these types of application the expectations of success would be higher than that, maybe they're covering themselves.

[greenroom78] 10/12/2013 07:40

Nice to see debt being paid off as well.

[greenroom78] 10/12/2013 07:39

They also point towards a strong H2 here

"The Board recognised that a period of transition would lead to a distinct second half year bias to the 30 April 2014 results. The Company was breakeven at EBITDA level in the first half (2012: profit GBP0.5m). The loss before tax was GBP0.8m (2012: loss GBP0.5m) following interest, restructuring costs and the expected non cash impairment of the LIFTCo intangible of GBP0.5m. A combination of reorganised resources and a relentless focus on costs reduced our cost base by 17% compared to the same period last year."

[greenroom78] 10/12/2013 07:38

Agreed CR, they say so further down.

"We expect to meet our profit expectations for the year as new Extra Care schemes are budgeted to reach financial close before our year end. Three scheme applications are already with planning authorities and a further three schemes are in advanced preparation for planning submission. These schemes have a value approaching GBP50 million with the high margin pre-construction revenue being recognised at financial close. At this time we are focussed on gaining planning approval and completing agreements to lease on these schemes and providing around two thirds of these are successful then our numbers will be secure for the year."

[cockneyrebel] 10/12/2013 07:34

Looks and sounds at least in-line imo.

Even more heavily weighted to H2 this year but sounds like it could be well up on last year imo:



"Four bid wins in the last six months with an expected scheme value of GBP22.9m
-- Four schemes currently on site with others expected to commence shortly (2012: four)
-- Total forward pipeline, on-site or appointed of GBP103.3m of scheme value yet to be recognised (June 2013: GBP85.1m; December 2012: GBP71.3m) (including construction which will not always come through as Ashley House revenue)
-- Momentum building in new business with Extra Care pipeline (on-site or appointed) of GBP62.7m up 46% from the amount disclosed in June 2013"

Net assets risen by £1m, net debt fell by £1m.

Outlook sounded decent too imo.

I'll be continuing to hold.

All imo/dyor

CR

[yump] 02/12/2013 21:51

Thought it was significant that the share price took a permanent step up around director buying time. So often you get a blip and down again. Might be just me because I haven't done any scientific analysis, but it seems that permanent steps seem to be a good sign. ie. share price rises that then go pretty flat at a new level.

If I hadn't been in NPT already, I would have bought a few just on the basis of the stepping behaviour, when it started.

[cockneyrebel] 02/12/2013 20:34

Well the directors were loading up in September. The chart trend has changed.

There was interesting director changes in May and a change of business structure.

In H1 they made an operating loss of £362K. By year end they made a £564 operating profit. That meant a H2 operating profit of £926k in H2.

Current mkt cap £15,6m for a co that can make nearly £1m operating profit in a half year looks a worthwhile punt still imo, considering the above points re director changes and share buys, change of structure and chart imo.

Net debt had fallen from £6.6m to £2.7m in H1.

Have a little read through the interims.

AIM, so there's AIM risk etc, illiquid etc.

Just looks to me like the sort of business that could easily achieve £4-5m pbt before too long which would send these way higher imo.

But obviously you might want to see the H1 results in a fortnight before making your decision and play safe.

CR

[maurillac] 02/12/2013 17:06

yes if its on aim sell when you are in profit ! because usually it doesn`t last long !
m

[petersinthemarket] 02/12/2013 15:46

Hi Brucie, good to meet up again. I haven't been bitten by an AIM share yet so that is an ugly experience yet to come. Currently have stakes in AIM's ASH, BES, CSG, and VTU. Pretty confident in these so far but I am aware that AIM stocks have been known to drop like a rock on bad news when even a trailing stop loss might not help much. Hence my question. I tend not to look years ahead. I think that Mar/Apr is when some of the mkt tends to start going flat so I might think about pulling a few around that time and getting back in around sep/oct if everything still hangs together. I dont really enjoy stocks in the spring/summer as they (mine anyway) often tend to stall or drift backwards for a few months. Maybe a good time to be in cash in case anything interesting pops up. Anyone else got any theories on exit strategies in general. GL, pete

[doodlebug4] 02/12/2013 15:39

Mo123 - I agree with your post that these sort of care centres, which are more like sheltered housing, are a great opportunity for ASH. Elderly people can still maintain their independence while feeling secure in a community environment.

[brucie5] 02/12/2013 15:20

Hello Pete. Undoubtedly right to be cautious with AIM shares - I went through quite a while, post 2k madness, thinking they should be off limits.. ever time i bought one it plunged.