Ashley House Share Discussion Threads

[envirovision] 19/3/2014 11:20

Right that's my last top up here now.

[napoleon 14th] 07/3/2014 14:09

Yup, I was in here for a month or so over the NY, then thought the better of it...

[envirovision] 06/3/2014 15:39

Blimey this just keeps on getting cheaper

[topvest] 03/3/2014 20:28

Depends how it is worded. If it's simply a deferral at the end of the year, then investors will immediately look at next year's earnings forecast and the outlook statement. I'm not saying we want a profit warning, but a slightly below 2013/14 followed by a much stronger 2014/15 is no bad thing. I suspect that booking all of their planning permissions in 2013/14 would leave them in a tighter spot for H1 next year.

Learn how to spell rude words before you use them by the way!!

[topvest] 27/2/2014 20:16

Yes, I agree - seems a win win! If they miss expectations, then you immediately move into a stronger next year. Almost wants you to miss the target. Certainly they will be hoping not to over-deliver I suspect!

[scburbs] 27/2/2014 15:06

I have topped up. Strong progress should resume later this year once expectations for the year are met or from a strong H1 2014/15 (possibly off the back of missing expectations!).

[envirovision] 26/2/2014 12:12

agree with you

[topvest] 26/2/2014 10:17

I've decided to get back into these after selling 2 years ago. They have made good progress in diversifying the business and the pipeline looks more encouraging than it has done for some time. Could see a return to the dividend this / next year.

[paleje] 18/2/2014 23:52

Pug, I honestly doubt if it was in any way intended to boost confidence amongst pi's. No director could be stupid enough to think a pocket money buy would do that, I should think his reason is much more innocent although I can't put forward suggestions as to what it may have been.

[pugugly] 18/2/2014 08:12

Director buy message AVOID.

If this was supposed to give the share price a boost is has done (for me) exactly the reverse. £2,565.00 + stamp and dealing expenses.

Last of the big spenders !!!!!!!!

[greenroom78] 18/2/2014 07:48

He must have really deep pockets (and short arms).

[bigbigdave] 18/2/2014 07:16

Director Chris Lyons really splashing out!

[spooky] 14/2/2014 07:10

Who told you that they were paying 9% to Rockpool?

[horndean eagle] 13/2/2014 13:57

ASH apparently paying Rockpool 9% on borrowings. With fees included its nearer 12% a year. Anyone fancy doing a swap from equity into debt?

[tomjacks] 12/2/2014 09:12

If contracts are not in by 31 March does not necessarily mean a bumper 2014/15. Look at the history of the company, it's share price performance since 2004, and the quality of the management. The prospects look (potentially) quite exciting after many years in the doldrums but the present management has to deliver and the jury is still out on whether they are capable of doing that. The same situation happened before 2004 when prospects were good, the company expanded taking on many new employees in expectation of an increase in business from the NHS but expectations were dashed when government funding policies changed. Management, including the current CEO, failed to react, the chairman resigned and the company share price bombed to below 10p. A new director and chairman were appointed to the board on the understanding that costs (including staff) would be cut, the result being that between 2004 and 2007, the share price improved to about £2ps before AHMP went to shareholders at the equivalent of 40pps. Since 2007, we all know what has happened to the economy but again, the management was slow to react and the share price fell to what has to be the strongest support level at 10p. Caveat emptor I feel.

[greedfear] 11/2/2014 15:58

Agreed. This is a buying opportunity for investors that have patience. Don't have any free funds alas as I most definitely would add to my position.
Overdone reaction.

[neg] 11/2/2014 14:51

First-things...I agree. Patience is required with small caps, if the contracts don't get in by 31 March, it will mean a bumper 2014/15. Had exactly the same issue with Inland Homes a year and a half ago, and LPA. Better to build a position now, than try and get in when it starts to race away. Very cheap rating, happy to hold and continue buying.

[masurenguy] 11/2/2014 13:50

I also added this morning with notification of a Buy order being filled.

[first_things] 11/2/2014 13:23

I am surprised by the share price movement today as the receipt of funds, debt facility and progress update are all positive for the company (good news!). The future prospects over the medium term are very exciting and there is a very real potential to significantly increase shareholder value. There are just two and a half months left of the financial year and it is still possible market expectations will be met or exceeded.

They have six Extra Care schemes that are budgeted to reach financial close before the year end. Planning Approval has been received on one scheme and five more schemes are awaiting planning approval before the year end. If they reach financial close of four schemes they will meet market expectations of £2.2 million EBITDA. Therefore there is upside risk of exceeding market expectations if they reach financial close on more than four. The results would be below market expectations if they did not reach financial close on four schemes before the year end. However, Ashely House would still benefit from these schemes if they are close in the next financial year. It is therefore somewhat academic if they reach financial close before or after the final year i.e. shareholder value would still be the same.

The discussion should be around the value the business can deliver over the next few years and the progress in this area can be seen on the pipeline published in the interim results. It is also nice to see the social value the business delivers by improving the lives of patients, residents and their families. I think the directors have failed to effectively communicate their growth plan, not worded the last announcement well and placed too much emphasis on the short term. Even if Ashely House meets market expectations this year the profit would be small compared to what is achievable in the future.

WH Ireland have forecast an EBITDA of £2.2 million for the financial year end April 2014 and £2.5 million EBITDA for the following financial year. The growth and demand for Extra Care schemes are a major positive for the company which is looking a strong BUY based on fundamentals. I am happy as a shareholder and will add more when funds become available.

My investment approach is based on Warrant Buffett so I like to find good quality companies at an attractive price and then hold for the long term.

[yorgi] 11/2/2014 11:42

I would have thought so Paleje but the BOD could have worded their announcement better. Total overreaction though.

[spooky] 11/2/2014 11:41

Well they are at my target level so i have started buying.