Ashley House Share Discussion Threads

[scrabble1975] 11/2/2014 11:40

Good luck :)

[scrabble1975] 11/2/2014 11:35

Stopped out. Good luck all.

[paleje] 11/2/2014 11:21

I suppose it would depend on the reason for not hitting the numbers. If it was just timing, red tape delay, so what? It's only an accounting issue, the underlying story remains intact and FY 2014/15 gets the benefit. If the projects got rejected that would be quite another matter but that does not appear likely imo.

1. Nothing's changed, competent management in growth market.
2. Fwd PER is low.
3. Management incentives don't trigger until share price hits 37p.
4. Trading at 60% tangible NAV.
5. No funding issues.

Today's selling seems overdone to me.

[scrabble1975] 11/2/2014 11:09

Almost out of this one. Not good.

[goliard] 11/2/2014 10:44

Chances of hitting this years numbers - almost none
Chances of a fall in share price when this happens - almost 100%

Reasons to hold???

[silverfox373] 11/2/2014 10:29

WH Ireland note out with target of 32p

Ashley House has this morning provided an update highlighting the progress that
has been made since we last heard from the group, including announcing a new
facility, further receipt of LIFT funds and advancement on the six advanced
schemes. Whilst further significant progress needs to be made by year-end on these schemes to meet our full year estimates, at this stage management remain
comfortable with market expectations. The shares trade on an FY 2014E PER of
6.6x. Following the update, we maintain our Buy recommendation and 32p share
price target based on 10x FY 2014E earnings to reflect the progress being made and recovery potential for the business over the next few years.

[paleje] 11/2/2014 10:26

Tony Walters emailed me, the wording isn't great, confirmed they do still only need two thirds (4 out of 6) to hit 2013 expectations so the other 2 would be a bonus. WHI have an update out this morning, maintain 32p target but that's based on only 4 pp's, they do make a point of saying that.

[spooky] 11/2/2014 10:13

I'm a little surprised here, did anyone actually think that they were going to make this years numbers? The story is one of medium term growth and looking at the charts the correct time to buy them is probably between 18 and 20p which give or take is where we are now. Yes they will fall when the company confirms that they will miss this years numbers but once again i would stress that in my opinion this is a medium term growth story, the work load that they have going forward is clearly stated.

[greenroom78] 11/2/2014 09:43

It has fallen from 28p to 19p with little support so 'freefall' isn't completely unjust.

I'm more concerned about the tone of today's update than I am the mini sell-off. It does have a whiff of a warning compared to their last comments.

[robbo35] 11/2/2014 09:31

Yes, probably an exaggeration to see 'freefall' but slightly worrying all the same, its not a pretty chart at present, that's for sure.

[masurenguy] 11/2/2014 09:29

This mornings paltry share volume so far hardly warrants the classification "free fall". This has been marked down by the MMs and in response a few PI's have bailed out.

[greenroom78] 11/2/2014 09:27

The statement looks rather cautious to me, I hope they are not doing it as a warning.

[robbo35] 11/2/2014 09:20

Looks like its in free fall at the moment, one to buy again when it finds support. it's come back a long way in recent months on no bad news.

Good point paleje, it will be interesting to see how the company responds to your email.

[paleje] 11/2/2014 08:31

True CR, but I've emailed anyway.

[cockneyrebel] 11/2/2014 08:15

Not sure there paleje, may just be the way it's phrased, will see.

CR

[paleje] 11/2/2014 07:39

At interims they stated that if two thirds of the six projects got pp, the year's numbers would be secured, with the obvious inference that they would exceed expectations if all six went through. Now that are not quite saying that, see last paragraph "Progress Update".

[masurenguy] 11/2/2014 07:27

RNS Number : 7370Z
Ashley House PLC
11 February 2014

Receipt of Funds, Debt Facility and Progress Update

Ashley House plc ("Ashley House" or the "Company") the health and community care property partner is pleased to announce agreement of the outstanding LIFT funds and the completion of a new debt facility agreement. The Company also provides a progress update on the project pipeline.

Funds Receipt

Further to the Progress Update of 7 January, the Company is pleased to advise the final payment of monies owed relating to a LIFT scheme previously aborted by the NHS in the Midlands has been agreed and will be paid this week. This means that the Company will have cleared all items of accrued income or outstanding payment from its balance sheet that were significantly impacted by the abolition of the PCTs.

Debt Facility Agreement

The Company has entered into a facility for the provision of development finance with Novus Lending Limited, a company advised by Rockpool Investments LLP. The facility has been put in place to support the Company's expanding development activity and is for a maximum amount of £2,000,000 over a two and half year term. An initial £600,000 has already been drawn to support the purchase of two pieces of land and associated development work already underway.

Jonathan Holmes, Chief Executive commented: "This new facility provides the Company with flexible financing that will help us deliver our expanding pipeline. We are delighted to extend our relationship with Rockpool whose investors acquired our first extra care scheme in St Helens in June 2012."

Progress Update

Further to updates provided in the interim results announcement and subsequent January announcement on progress, the Company is pleased to advise that Planning Applications for the remaining three schemes have been submitted. Planning Approval has been received on one of the six schemes and decisions are due on the remaining five schemes before our year end. The Company is now working to complete negotiations, agreements and legal documents on these schemes. If the schedules on these workstreams are met prior to the year end, the Company will meet market expectations for the current year.

[18bt] 11/2/2014 07:15

More progress this morning. Co has now turned the corner and can persue some limited growth.

[cockneyrebel] 04/2/2014 12:19

Levelling out and getting ready to turn up?

looks like the left side of a bowl potentially imo.

All imo/dyor etc

CR

[yump] 24/1/2014 15:29

Could be any of quite a few, but there's one at Merryl Lynch who works in investment.

[scrabble1975] 24/1/2014 14:20

I'm reading this as rather good news. And like the Faraday report. Certainly not looking like anything going to happen in the very short term here, but everything stacking for a very good investment over the medium to long term.

[cockneyrebel] 24/1/2014 12:12

Who's John Moy then?

CR