Abrdn Property Income Share Discussion Threads

[sportbilly1976] 23/1/2013 14:28

Nice last bit from the article in post 876.

"I think that fair value is at least £1.40 just based on the business and even more when considering the cash bonus that could come from the property if sold. Any of the potential bidders looking at API will certainly know that they will have to bid high enough to get the necessary support from the remaining shareholders even if they have been consulting mainly with the largest shareholders.

We can therefore have the best of both worlds here and a typical win/win situation is developing for holders. Either we get to keep the company and it continues its recovery path and strategy to build profits and rerates upwards with further profit upgrades ahead or we get a bid for the whole company at 40% plus above the current share price in a matter of weeks in my opinion.

I recommend API for further research and a short or long term buy at 84p although whilst writing this it has risen this morning to 86p. Still great value I think at anywhere below £1 as the recent results have surely upped the stakes and any exit price if a bid is to succeed"

[sportbilly1976] 23/1/2013 14:25

Given the time taken, do people expect an update to be the final agreed offer or could there be the possibility of a counter?

[protean] 23/1/2013 14:20

Most consistent buying in quite some time. Looking good.

[bigbigdave] 23/1/2013 13:39

Company buyout or not chart says 90p + coming soon to me.

[sportbilly1976] 23/1/2013 12:49

someone did well to get 10k without paying any premium

[speedsgh] 23/1/2013 12:48

Could be a delayed reaction to ST's snippet in his IC column yesterday?

[protean] 23/1/2013 12:24

Starting to look pretty interesting. Quite a lot of buying today compared to previous sessions.

[bigbigdave] 23/1/2013 12:17

Trying to break past the previous recent high here, news coming at last?

[sportbilly1976] 22/1/2013 13:54

speedsgh,

thanks for trawling thorugh the rns'...

looking at the chart you can see the rise and fall as per those dates too - it looks as though the offer rns took the share price from ~130 to ~180, so it is understandable why 100p was rejected!

[speedsgh] 22/1/2013 13:43

@sportbilly

- announced preliminary approach re offer on 11/2/2005 -
- announced termination of talks on 13/4/2005 -

[protean] 22/1/2013 13:31

Surely the result of the bidding process can't be too far away now.

The most recent update was in the interims on 29th Nov:

"On 26 September 2012 the Board announced the commencement of a formal sale process in respect of the Group. Further to the expiry of the initial deadline at the end of October 2012, the Board can confirm that a number of indicative offers have been received and that the Company and its advisers are in discussions with a number of parties. As the next stage, due diligence information and management presentations are being provided with a view to securing revised proposals for the Board's further consideration."

In a couple of days that will have been 8 weeks since this statement, so surely they've got to be at a pretty advanced stage by now.

The fact that there have been a "number of indicative offers" and "discussions with a number of parties" indicates plenty of interest and should help drive the bid price higher.

[sportbilly1976] 22/1/2013 13:30

It's even possible that Illinois Tool Works may bid even though its offer of around 100p a share was turned down seven years ago.

not sure when exactly they made the approach, but you can see why it was turned down!

[speedsgh] 22/1/2013 12:10

Snippet on API included in ST's update on Crystal Amber in IC today...

"API ready packaged for a bid

Packaging materials group, API, is of interest, too, after the board put the company up for sale following pressure from major shareholders. The sale process is still ongoing, but a takeover of the company looks likely after US activist fund and 32 per cent shareholder Steel Partners and 28 per cent shareholder Wynnefield Capital announced they want to sell out. The most likely bidders are trade buyers in Germany and the Middle East and foil-makers in Asia. It's even possible that Illinois Tool Works may bid even though its offer of around 100p a share was turned down seven years ago.

It's worth pointing out that API has a hidden and valuable asset in its New Jersey site which "covers 20 acres within the Manhattan commuter belt and is potentially worth a significant part of its market capitalisation" according to Crystal Amber, adding that even without a bid "reorganisation, investment and marketing initiatives combine to offer share price upside well in excess of 100p". I agree and, even though API shares have already moved up from 70p to 83p after I flagged up the takeover potential last month, there could be a further 20 per cent potential upside from this holding in the event of a bid for API."

[sportbilly1976] 22/1/2013 11:39

Aishah,

I personally would be disappointed with 90p. Here is a post I made in December re my persoanl target (especially wrt the current sale process):

From the IC recently;
"Packaging materials group, API, is of keen interest, too, after the board put the company up for sale following pressure from major shareholders. The sale process is ongoing, but a sale looks likely after US activist fund and 32 per cent shareholder Steel Partners and 28 per cent shareholder Wynnefield Capital announced they want to sell out. The most likely bidders are trade buyers in Germany and the Middle East and foil-makers in Asia. It's even possible that Illinois Tool Works may bid even though its offer of around 100p a share was turned down seven years ago.

It's worth pointing out that API has a hidden and valuable asset in its New Jersey site which "covers 20 acres within the Manhattan commuter belt and is potentially worth a significant part of its market capitalisation" according to Crystal Amber, adding that even without a bid "reorganisation, investment and marketing initiatives combine to offer share price upside well in excess of 100p". I agree and, with API shares currently priced at 70p in the market, there could be significant upside from this holding, too.

..and from Equity Developments note on the 9th July ...

Trading on a forward P/E of only 6.5x FY'13 earnings and EV/ EBITDA of only
4.6 x, we believe that API is significantly undervalued in relation to its peer
group, exhibiting a much higher 3 year growth rate in both earnings and
EBI TDA. Thus, putting API on an undemanding earnings multiple of 9x FY'13
EPS, some 6 x EV/EBITDA and 2.0x book, would see 86p as an achievable
share price target in the short term.
Looking further ahead, we forecast a high 3 yr growth outlook from a
strong asset base and put a fair value on the shares of 120p,
representing nearly 100% upside from current levels. This level could
be realised sooner, via corporate action, given the management's
public commitment to review a possible auction process in Q3 this
year

Adding on a bit for the property (I think it was mentioned at approx 10p) gets to 130p, which coincidentally is just under the £100mln mkt cap

[sportbilly1976] 22/1/2013 11:29

someone topped up this am?

[aishah] 21/1/2013 18:19

Would be happy to exit @90p for a 9 bagger!

[britishb] 21/1/2013 17:24

I think we find out tomorrow about the bid outcome because my sausage and celery with mustard charts tell all.

Barking mad you lot. Totally effing barking.

[bigbigdave] 21/1/2013 17:19

So roughly 35% upside from current levels, would be lovely.

[greenroom78] 21/1/2013 17:07

Brilliant. I don't really know what any of that means but I'll dig my books out at home and see what I can learn from it.

I could live with 113-115p.

[smudgeroo] 21/1/2013 17:05

Sure Greenroom, no worries.

0.5 x 3 box chart showing cluster targets of 85.5 having been met. Note the active upside target of 115p on this chart:



1 x 3 box chart showing active upside clustered targets of 112p and 113p:

[greenroom78] 21/1/2013 16:32

Can you post them please?

I never really understand P&F but always like looking at them (while I try to learn). It always looks so much neater than normal charting IMO.

Cheers

[smudgeroo] 21/1/2013 16:29

Will be interesting to see what the sale price of the company will be (if any). I have a P&F chart showing cluster targets of 112p/113p. The previous price clusters of 85.5p were met on the last high and it was at that level that the price retraced from.

[protean] 21/1/2013 16:04

Someone paying a premium there.

[interceptor2] 21/1/2013 15:00

They certainly have had plenty of time, maybe the preferred bidders need more time to raise all that extra finance to pay the large premium for API?

Always the optimist

ic2...