Abrdn Property Income Share Discussion Threads

[valhamos] 25/1/2013 08:07

Thinking of buying more - currently 76p to buy

[freonwarrior] 25/1/2013 08:06

I'm out! 10% stop loss.

[ukinvestor220] 25/1/2013 08:00

well they didnt issue an RNS when it was above 85 p !!

[greenroom78] 25/1/2013 07:54

90p or under would be a 'no deal' from me, but with the two large holders %ages they will be making the decision.

I thought this mornings RNS is a little irresponsible in that they could've given a price range rather than just saying below 90p.

Personally at under 90p I hope the can continue without a t/o.

GLA

[greengiant] 25/1/2013 07:25

Hi All,

Unfortunate news about the proposed sale but maintain my view that between 6x and 7x EBITDA is the right multiple for this sector - the 2 latest cases have been Britto Merlin and Paragon Print and Packaging being sold for this multiple. Cannot see API going for any more.

gg

greengiant 13 Dec'12 - 15:12 - 769 of 894 0 0 edit

Hi All,

Just thought I would give my 2p worth here. Companies within the Packaging Sector are generally selling for a multiple of around 6x - 7z EBITDA. Example of this are CCL's recent acquisition, Sun's acquisition of Britton Merlin. This is on a cash free debt free basis so you have to knock debt and pension deficit off.

Looking here we have around £6m EBITDA for H1 and a forecast of 8.80p EPS for FY so you could expect around £10m - £11m EBITDA for the full year. That would give you a top end forecast of £77m less around £5m debt and £7m deficit although expect £2m reduction in H2. So overall, say £10m debt. That gives top end £67m which is not a million miles away from here.

Property is a plus so there may be some upside their but would be unusual.

gg

[protean] 24/1/2013 11:38

Strong volume again today.

[sportbilly1976] 24/1/2013 09:44

looks like a stream of pi sized buys being fed by someone offloading in 25k chunks.

great trading volume though yesterday & today..holding for the 140p offer :)

[davidosh] 23/1/2013 15:58

druinsky....nobody is sucking you in ! You came here to tell us about Hornby at post 887 LOL....where is your detailed research and did you lose on the way down as the train sets hit the buffers ?

[sportbilly1976] 23/1/2013 15:50

...and now those sellers are buying back :)

[druinsky] 23/1/2013 15:27

Glad i didnt get sucked in. Looks like those buyers this morning are selling

[sportbilly1976] 23/1/2013 15:21

Using the rising channel over the past 18-20 months as a guide, the upper resistance is around 94p

[bigbigdave] 23/1/2013 15:02

The Eric Whiteside effect :o)

[druinsky] 23/1/2013 14:55

Lads, check out Hornby - directors buing and bid too. Reckon 140p on the way for HRN too!!! DYOR!

[sportbilly1976] 23/1/2013 14:53

dan,

not surprising given a 90p buy price with potential 140 offer being mentioned.

although that is a bit higher than anything mentioned previously (I think I was highest with my £1.25 or £100mln valuation)

[soundbuy] 23/1/2013 14:50

Yep, brought in a few trades..........

[dangreen86] 23/1/2013 14:50

Carmensfella article on the fool boards moved the market?

[greenroom78] 23/1/2013 14:45

Ooo, been out all day - This is nice and with volume too.

News on its way by any chance?

[sportbilly1976] 23/1/2013 14:43

Aishah / BBD,

There's your 90p :)

[sportbilly1976] 23/1/2013 14:37

just gone phone only on IG - heaviest volume day (trades) for some time today

[bingowing] 23/1/2013 14:37

IG index taking no bets as of now..

[sportbilly1976] 23/1/2013 14:29

I'd settle for £1.40 :)

[sportbilly1976] 23/1/2013 14:28

Nice last bit from the article in post 876.

"I think that fair value is at least £1.40 just based on the business and even more when considering the cash bonus that could come from the property if sold. Any of the potential bidders looking at API will certainly know that they will have to bid high enough to get the necessary support from the remaining shareholders even if they have been consulting mainly with the largest shareholders.

We can therefore have the best of both worlds here and a typical win/win situation is developing for holders. Either we get to keep the company and it continues its recovery path and strategy to build profits and rerates upwards with further profit upgrades ahead or we get a bid for the whole company at 40% plus above the current share price in a matter of weeks in my opinion.

I recommend API for further research and a short or long term buy at 84p although whilst writing this it has risen this morning to 86p. Still great value I think at anywhere below £1 as the recent results have surely upped the stakes and any exit price if a bid is to succeed"

[sportbilly1976] 23/1/2013 14:25

Given the time taken, do people expect an update to be the final agreed offer or could there be the possibility of a counter?