 I think things could be set out more clearly by ABRDN but it may be intentional.
7/11/24 the bank debt was £112m and the provision set aside for the costs of disposal of the property portfolio was £5m.
29/11/24 the total payment was £351m ....£234m net
So it looks like £5m went to the sales cost of the very large percentage of the company ???
Obviously there will be further windup cost but not on that scale ??
After all sorts of write offs and adjustments the unaudited NAV as of 30/9/24 was 65p
I really haven't been impressed by the board but they did go for this disposal as the very best and quickest option and very importantly have intimated that 64p is their target return figure.
Given that the NAV figure has been massaged downwards over the last year or so we are still at a 13% discount on disposal and that figure rises with every penny below 64p .....hardly a good look.
(Far Ralia is on the books at original purchase price plus grants £7.5m + £2.5m .....hardly demanding.....the delay appears to be down to legal/administrative holdups ) |
Rather ill thought out and illogical comments above but nothing new for ADVFN.
I stand by all my figures and comments here.
The company currently has at least £24m in cash (6.3p/share)
In addition we have the rental income for Oct/Nov, grants worth £2.5m and land valued at £10m.
Unless you hire Tony Soprano and his pals to do the final, relatively small, wind up the costs should not be great.
"you pays you money you takes your chance"....although I suspect some posters don't. |
There are a number of uncertainties here. Far Ralia could be drawn out and value realised may not be optimal.
Also, a number of providers might remove it from an ISA if it ended up being a partial cash distribution, liquidation/delisting with Far Ralia proceeds to follow.
Suspect it might be interesting at below 5.5p, depending on any updates. |
@Pavey interesting but the documetn cited above by Papy02 also says:
Further cash is expected to be returned to Shareholders in due course in relation to the ongoing operation and ultimate sale of Far Ralia, together with remaining cash balances of the Company plus accrued interest once certain final costs and expenses (including those relating to the Voluntary Winding Up) have been finally determined.
(My bold)
How do we know what these costs might come to? Could they be considerable? Are there any taxes due? |
Bought again this morning (@6.09p) .......I consider this to be better than a low risk purchase as the market cap at 6.09p is £23.2m and the company retained over £24m from the sale in November.
In addition to this cash we have:-
1 The rental income for October and November.
2 Grants (yet to be paid to API)of over £2.5m for far Ralia
3 The value of far Ralia itself (bought for £7.5m up for sale for £12m but this sum is slightly complicated by who gets what grants and when).
There is some holdup at Far Ralia as the ownership company within API has changed and legal matters never move quickly.
If there is further delay in the sale then I would see API making a further distribution quite soon 4/5p ?
NB API paid for Far Ralia then planted the trees ......they are due grant payments of over £2.5m.
I must say 6p does look strange to me but I've been wrong before
"you pays your money you takes your chance |
Hi bpdon
it's in the Circular published on 3 Dec 2024:
(search in the document on " ultimate sale of Far Ralia", or page down to the Chairman's Letter).
I also struggled to find it again - thought I might have hallucinated - Google doesn't find anything when search for that text (except my original advfn post and stuff behind firewalls that I couldn't be bothered with) |
Hi @papy02. I am struggling to find that quote you used in your post above. Would you mind sharing a link to this? |
Something happening the last few days. Seems serious value on offer, hard to imagine what could go wrong from here.
I have now build my stake back to 30% to my previous total. |
MRF,
they retained £24m from the main portfolio sale, and commented:
Further cash is expected to be returned to Shareholders in due course in relation to the ongoing operation and ultimate sale of Far Ralia, together with remaining cash balances of the Company plus accrued interest once certain final costs and expenses
(including those relating to the Voluntary Winding Up) have been finally determined |
How is the current market cap of £25.5M justified ? |
Not showing but I bought at 6.85p |
Came across an interesting article and followed it up with a Google search "Washington Post ......green lairds .....carbon offset"I have always considered API's Scottish planting to be valuable and much more valuable than some would have you believe.The delay in realising the cash here is largely related to the grants, detailed application of new ownership and the Forestry officials speed of handling the application.......in my opinion!!!??? The current share price give no value to Far Ralia.....and it is being marketed for £12m.....hmmmmm??For full disclosure I have just bought more.........the highest price I've paid........I had lots before today.API have always said that their aim was a 64p return so with 55p paid that's 9p.62p would be a massive miss even for ABRDN but 7p still turns a profitAs always "You pays your money you takes your chance" |
so what is going on here? |
That's pretty hefty volume today with those two? big trades |
PA, I look at it in the same manner. The return on the remaining fragment could be significant owing to the inherent leverage, but also one must consider the far higher remaining (undiversified) risk. But I don't have anything like 4x my original position as I made my larger profit by taking very large exposure between 60-60.8p (having earned a 1p dividend prior) where the odds of getting 61.5p was as good as nailed on. 2% profit on a very secure (non-volatile) position should not be sneezed at.
There is a risk that they find little interest in Far Ralia, hence my now 40% position (i.e. 4% of the original risk amount). I still expect the outcome to be positive for holders, though. |
My upside from here is fairly limited, as I didn't reinvest the 52p capital return. The capital return took care of my book cost, so what's left is the profit.
In real terms, any further uplift from here won't make a big difference for me, given the size of the rump that's left.
Good luck to those that remain. I only invested after the wind down was announced, so it's been short but worthwhile. |
I think the problem here is when people think in terms of 61p/62p and whither it is worth holding on for a few pence more.
I now hold 4.5 times my original (final?) API holding.
As I said before API has been a "lucky" share for me and I have done very well from it over the past five/six years.....I sold out completely a few times and then bought back in but was able to buy very well with all the confusion last year.
What interested me recently was when the 52p was paid and the price came down then ex dividend and obviously the price fell further.
I've bought four times since ex dividend and just checked that my average is 6.3p on the additional shares ......my original purchases were in the very low 50p range but I'm talking about my 6p purchases.
Now to the fine detail .
1. The company has a target of 64p returns .....obviously +/-
2. The land is priced at £10m and could go for more
3. Current grants for the planting have still to be paid to API.
4. When sold the land comes with additional grants to be paid to the purchaser.
5. Q3 update gave asset value of 65p with most but not all costs included.
6. after Q3 there were two months of rental not included and this comes to over £2m ?
On my figures a 15% return gives a 62.25p final settlement
even at 6.5p a 15% return is 62.5p.
These figures are well short of the repeated 64p ( over £5m down so not trivial)
Very simple arithmetic shows that a 63p return makes 8p and 64p gives 9p.
Now my point is that ABRDN have said ...."take this offer it's a big discount but it will be quick and you should get c.64p at the end " or words very close to this ......61.5 or 62p is not really good enough. but anything above is a big return on c.6.5p.
As for ASLI which I also hold I am almost certain that API will be done and dusted long before this is settled (never liked ASLI and holding against my better judgement) |
I sold as soon as the dividends were announced, got 61.90p in total, just don't know when the highland property will sell. Topped up ASLI, ADIG and a few others. |
Pavey - I confess that I'm in two minds whether to continue to hang on. Sell now that the dividend has been paid (and bank 18% over 7 months) or hang on and wait for the trees to be sold and a final distribution?
I'm coming around to the view that the upside from here may not be worth waiting an uncertain period of time for, and I'd be better recycling the cash,such as it is.
Thoughts of others are welcome. |
Divi paid, a useful time to get the cash with all the interesting situations out there. |
Bought more here today.( I have quite a few that are closer to 6p)
A 15% uplift takes us to 7.5p and if you add the 55p paid you get 62.5p which is a pretty big miss on their oft quoted 64p and even bigger miss on their last stated NAV of 65p......61.5p or 6.5p would be a bit of a shocker ....£10m lost down the back of the sofa !!??
15% would certainly do well enough but the percentage return ramps up considerably as you get closer to 64p.......usual warning....it is ABRDN !!!??? |
Looking forward to that 3p divi on Friday. |
@swiftnick18 re your:#1306. Quite right. Apologies. |
Spectoacc perhaps you could advise them other state "API Return of Capital,RETURN OF GBP0.52 PER SHARE." |
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