Abrdn Property Income Share Discussion Threads

[cockneyrebel] 25/1/2013 12:28

I think if you look at the preceeding sells they added up to near 160k - that buyer probably just took what mm's had left on the book to sell that they were working imo.

Price firming now.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 25/1/2013 12:26

160k - so today's sellers sold out to the buyer on the cheap then?

CR

[protean] 25/1/2013 12:23

160k buy there by the looks of things.

[beaufort1] 25/1/2013 12:10

Fall looks overdone to me - should creep back up to about 80p soon.
B1

[cockneyrebel] 25/1/2013 11:35

Hmmm, well I think it's interesting that te co refer to the 'mid price' in their statement. To me that was to be clear that were there was no ambiguity. Therefore had they said 'below the current market price' that would not have been true as the indicative price matched or was higher than the bid at last nights close.

So sounds like any porential offer is around 89p.

So the upside for a bid here is possibly around 15% or so.

The co is expected to do 11p eps next year, and has some good assets.

Currently trading on a fwd PE of 7 so if the bid upside lookslimited the downside looks limited too imo.

The two major shareholder put the co up for sale. If they think 89p is too cheap they won't take it and that indicates significant earnings upside imo.

If they accept 89p then they obviously think that's a reasonable price.

Perhaps they lever a few pence more out of the bidder, perhaps they don't but at 76p I think there's upside from earnings growth or a bid and little downside imo.

CR

[druinsky] 25/1/2013 11:31

druinsky 23 Jan'13 - 15:27 - 890 of 938 0 0 edit

Glad i didnt get sucked in. Looks like those buyers this morning are selling





Like I said. Offer prob at 65p-75p i would imagine

[ukinvestor220] 25/1/2013 11:02

you and many others it would seem :)

[spooky] 25/1/2013 11:01

FWIW - I think the risk reward is pretty favourable at 73p so i have started to buy a few.

[salpara111] 25/1/2013 10:04

Had a small holding and sold it when it crossed the 90 line.
I felt that the last trading statement was rather less bullish so got a little nervous.
It is always difficult when the company hoists the "for sale" sign rather than receiving an unsolicited approach as they have to try and justify a large premium.
My own feeling was that without all the bid talk over the last year the share price would currently be around the 60p level so for me 90p was a 50% premium and as such that was why I cashed out at that level.
The only question now remaining is, will the big holders be happy to cash out with say 80-85p or say no which would doubtless lead to the share price drifting back towards the 60p line again.
If the bid fails and it drifts back I would certainly look at taking a stake again but at the moment there is just too much uncertainty for me.

[protean] 25/1/2013 09:45

Paulypilot update:

[britishb] 25/1/2013 09:44

I've been selling this down and buying GDWN where I guess the current year P/E will be about 10 on the back of 60% growth in eps, no pension deficit, fab balance sheet, increasing margins, record order books etc.

Cue a GDWN profit warning....

[britishb] 25/1/2013 09:39

ukinvestor you are of course correct re possible bids and I am clearly wrong.

However if you read that statement and EXPECT a bid above 90p then I think you are being extremely optimistic.

Seems to me a bid above 85p very unlikely now and the tone of the statement suggests a distinct possibility of no bid at all.

Any bid upside therefore limited.

Given "the Board is anticipating a slightly weaker second half, with full year results substantially unchanged on previous expectations" and a £9m+ pension deficit it's not for me. Good luck.

[speedsgh] 25/1/2013 09:37

I am curious as to why they felt that they needed to disclose that "indicative proposals received to date have been below the closing mid-market price of API shares of 90p on 24th January 2013". Surely they could have simply said that discussions were ongoing with a number of parties?

What is the board's strategy here? Genuinely confused at this point. Are they trying to manage our expectations?

[shrout] 25/1/2013 09:25

Bit of an unpleasant surprise this morning, but I'm still holding. Will think about selling when the share price returns to something closer to fair value.

[eeza] 25/1/2013 09:22

No bidder would expect to less than 90p to succeed - they are opening gambits.

[ukinvestor220] 25/1/2013 09:16

anyway - i thought you were moving on from here

[ukinvestor220] 25/1/2013 09:14

britishb you are wrong - Indicative proposals received to date have been below the closing mid-market price of API shares of 90p on 24th January 2013

that doesnt say that any bid WILL be below 90p. it says that of the proposals that have been received so far - the number of proposals we dont know, and the percentage of total proposals we dont know either - the offer has been indicative of less than 90p. that doesnt mean its their final offer, or that any other proposals may not indicate a higher offer.

[protean] 25/1/2013 08:49

Worth re-reading Carmensfella's article:



From the news today, it's quite possible the received bids were for the mid 80s. The board will be working hard to get those bids a lot higher.

Good value again here imo.

[britishb] 25/1/2013 08:48

"Can't see bid being less than 90p".

Err you've just been told it WILL be less than 90p, if any bid comes!

[valhamos] 25/1/2013 08:46

Had a few more at 75.7p

Can't see bid being less than 90p. If no bid then on a forward P/E of under 7 and 0.3 PEG lots of value to be realised over medium term.

[eeza] 25/1/2013 08:43

BOD have put themselves under unnecessary pressure. Fighting off a T/O at 90p bid is easier than with the bid at 75p.

[smudgeroo] 25/1/2013 08:37

Needs to hold the 75 level or its back to the 69 level.