Anglo-eastern Plantations Share Discussion Threads

[lobby ludd] 22/5/2014 20:43

CPO remains in a $850 - $900 band. So what has driven AEP share price to cconsistent high's above 700p. Probably the rocketing price of CPKO, up 58% y-o-y. This is caused by surging prices for Coconut oil, for which CPKO is the best substitute. Last year's typhoon devasted the coconut harvest of the major producer the Philippines. Now drought has reduced the Indian (2nd biggest producer)harvest by 50%, such that Indian wholesalers are diluting coconut oil with CPKO.

Does anyone know what proportion of AEP's turnover is CPKO ? And, why they don't produce the stuff themselves rather than selling the kernals to third parties.

[lobby ludd] 22/5/2014 20:43

CPO remains in a $850 - $900 band. So what has driven AEP share price to cconsistent high's above 700p. Probably the rocketing price of CPKO, up 58% y-o-y. This is caused by surging prices for Coconut oil, for which CPKO is the best substitute. Last year's typhoon devasted the coconut harvest of the major producer the Philippines. Now drought has reduced the Indian (2nd biggest producer)harvest by 50%, such that Indian wholesalers are diluting coconut oil with CPKO.

Does anyone know what proportion of AEP's turnover is CPKO ? And, why they don't produce the stuff themselves rather than selling the kernals to third parties.

[trytotakeiteasy] 16/4/2014 10:54

seems to be marking time here.... but palm oil prices strengthening and profits should increase this year..

[lobby ludd] 08/4/2014 09:15

Finals out today.

[hvs] 09/12/2013 14:24

This can only go higher.

Vast landbank.

Vast Cash position and generating more.

Fantastic management.

And palm oil can only go up .

The value is not reflected in share price as shares tightly held. But sooner or later
it wil POP.

[lobby ludd] 22/11/2013 11:41

From R.E.A. holdings November IMS "...production costs, measured in US dollars, are being assisted by the weakness of the INR, which currently stands at RP 11,418." (11,698 today).

[trytotakeiteasy] 21/11/2013 13:22

fertilser prices globally have been coming down and priced in dollars.... energy fuel would be bought locally and have been going up on lower subsidies...

AEP looks reasonably well placed.... we shall see.. profits down this year but maybe it is the bottom and starts to recover from 2014 onwards

[woracle] 21/11/2013 11:10

I would have thought a proportion of costs like labour is in INR so thats a positive, but big ones like fertiliser, energy/fuel are based on $ commodities.

[lobby ludd] 21/11/2013 10:16

Thanks for your comment - always of interest. IMS does not mention of the near 20% depreciation of Indonesian currency against the dollar since the start of 2013, which(I presume)is a positive.

[woracle] 20/11/2013 16:12

Production slightly down which is not good. CPO down 20% is known but recently popped above $900 which is encouraging. Planting progress has been awful last few years tbh, missing all targets badly. Nothing to get excited about. unless CPO or production rises, still stuck in the doldrums. The cycle is bottoming possibly...

[trytotakeiteasy] 20/11/2013 14:19

Is this update good or bad... I can't tell!!!

[loftgroovv] 21/10/2013 21:31

Chart looks good for a nice re-bound here.

[masurenguy] 06/9/2013 15:46

Bouncing off a double bottom !

[trytotakeiteasy] 21/8/2013 13:45

A weaker Rupiah benefits these guys I guess???? costs in rupiah while revenue in dollars....

[trytotakeiteasy] 19/6/2013 09:58

update seems to have put the more on track.. although palm oil prices down a quarter on last year...

[hvs] 30/5/2013 18:51

lol !!!!!

There is one BORN every minute.

Must be down to the NHS.

lol !!!!!!

[trytotakeiteasy] 30/5/2013 18:44

IMS decent??? have you read it???

[lobby ludd] 30/5/2013 18:09

SP picking up in recent days on the back of a decent IMS, rising CPO ($860), and strengthening of $ against Indnesian/Malaysian currencies.

[bountyhunter] 21/3/2013 19:15

nice rise today ...not sure if there's anything specific behind it though

[lobby ludd] 22/11/2012 10:12

ims issued this morning.

[vinnegar] 02/11/2012 16:03

i like the stock - check out Figure 2 of the chart here:



in the long term the EPS growth is not coming only from the increase in price of the CPO but from the growth in the plantation area as well - it is far more significant driver than the CPO price...

given the company is sitting on a pile of cash, while other leveraged co's will face the squeeze from lower CPO prices AEP will simply sit this through (as they did in the past), buy some more land and keep planting...

[woracle] 02/11/2012 12:08

CPO average down from $1100 H1 to $850 H2. 23% fall.
In the circumstances, AEP has held up very well. Just look at the sector ...

[vinnegar] 02/11/2012 10:19

have I missed any recent bad news driving the share price so low or is it just the reaction to the lower palm oil prices? any insights?

[woracle] 02/10/2012 19:05

Well, nothing is a given short term. CPO price recovery is as unpredictable as they come. Without an increase in demand from world growth, the only catalyst near term to reduce supply and help a price recovery is El Nino due v soon. You have to be realistic and accept this years results will disappoint for all producers if CPO prices stay at these lower than forecast levels. Will it be undervalued as far as the market sees it ? These days, a foreward PE of 8.5 seems to be what the market can bear. I will need to update my own estimates with a H2 CPO average of $850.

[hvs] 02/10/2012 17:47

It will come back strongly.

In any case with AEP we have no worries. Its loads of dosh in the bank.

And still very very undervalued.