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Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Anglo-eastern Plantations Plc LSE:AEP London Ordinary Share GB0000365774 ORD 25P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  1.00 0.15% 654.00 652.00 654.00 654.00 654.00 654.00 1 08:26:21
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Food Producers 196.8 37.8 58.7 11.1 258

Anglo-eastern Plantations Share Discussion Threads

Showing 1951 to 1974 of 1975 messages
Chat Pages: 79  78  77  76  75  74  73  72  71  70  69  68  Older
DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
12/9/2021
09:15
m_kerr, thanks for that. Yes, the fact AEP is a public company hence its shares can rise in price is a good defence against a claim for unfair prejudice particularly as AEP's dollar market cap. has risen over the last few weeks, probably mostly due to the rise in the cash balance reported in its H1 results (rather than due to changes in $ ex-mill gate price of CPO - if anything the ex-mill gate price has fallen recently due to the rise in September export tax). And I still feel you are right that the share price would be massively higher if the dividend payout ratio were raised to 50% of eps, and in that sense, shareholders are being done down here. Another defence against an unfair prejudice claim might be that they are looking for reasonably priced acquisitions but haven't found any yet. Anyway it is interesting that Simon Thompson of Investors Chronicle thinks AEP are a bargain on a forward PE of 3 or whatever, but I can't see what is going to out the locked-up value here. If I could, yes, okay, they wouldn't be this share price! MPE probably trade at the substantial premium to book value because the DCF valuation, using, I assume, a long term $610 ex-mill gate price and a 16% discount rate, makes their plantations, and their small property development business, worth £10.99 a share (see page 94 of their 2020 AR and also the separate Khong Jaafar estate valuation document they publish on their web site). REA trades at a massive discount to net asset value probably because it is assumed that a massive rescue capital raising will be needed at some point to reduce its horrific level of net debt. Also some of REA's 'assets' aren't exactly the type you can put up for sale, e.g. capitalised interest, but REA has the biggest operating leverage, an advantage, except when there is a backwardation on the palm oil price curve like there is now, so lots of scary times ahead for me! MPE H1 results due out tomorrow, which I am also invested in. AEP is the only one I don't have! Maybe Simon Thompson is right after all, and I am wrong to be in REA ords. We'll see.
nobull
11/9/2021
16:27
nobull - i'm pretty sure that letting excessive amounts of cash (relative to operational needs ) pile up, whilst paying no or minimal dividends, has been successfully litigated against, but only in private companies, not publicly listed ones. this is because in theory higher cash balances should result in a higher share price.
m_kerr
10/9/2021
20:56
"...will be best achieved by turning off as many shareholders as possible from owning the shares" An unfair prejudice claim may be the answer to unlocking the value then? "There are two elements to the requirement of unfair prejudice, and both must be present to succeed in a claim: the conduct must be prejudicial in the sense of causing prejudice or harm to the relevant interest of the members or some part of the members of the company (i.e. shareholders), and it must be unfair." Source: hTTps://www.ashfords.co.uk/news-and-media/general/guide-to-unfair-prejudice-against-shareholders
nobull
10/9/2021
17:04
i can only conclude the chairman, who is the controlling shareholder, will at some point be looking to buy the other 49% at a discount to value, which will be best achieved by turning off as many shareholders as possible from owning the shares. shareholders must be assuming that the cash will just keep piling up and up, and none of it will make it back to them.
m_kerr
10/9/2021
10:38
MP Evans' future eps are expected to grow faster (average tree age is younger) and eps can grow from doing more of its own milling. One new mill has just come on line and another one is due to be completed next year. AEP's shares are may be a bet on a shareholder rebellion, not that you can rebel much against a 50%+ shareholder. Corporate governance issues? More like a deliberate minority oppression scheme. Yes, Mdm Chairman raised the dividend 100%, but on the full year 2020 results it was still 88 times covered even after the massive dividend rise. All 3 UK listed palm oil companies have similar total assets, but boy are they different at the enterprise value level and at the cpo production level. REA has over $50m of dud assets (coal mine and stone interests don't generate any cash) but that is about to change, but REA's ords have a higher risk rating than AEP's, so will definitely not be to everyone's taste here. JMV. P.S. I bought some Lidl's frozen battered cod the other day, and guess what: it contains palm fat. Doing my little bit to help.
nobull
09/9/2021
21:57
if you take off the £100m or so of net cash (excl retirement liabilities), you get to an enterprise value to ebit ratio of, 2.08 which is probably the lowest i've ever seen for a business. MP evans trades at a 54% premium to book, and EV/EBIT of around 20. in fact, if you strip out the net cash, the business trades at a 60 odd % discount to net assets. i think it's fair to say as a private business it would be transacted at a value far, far in excess of the current share price. there are clearly corporate governance concerns here - if there was a commitment to paying out say half earnings in dividends, it would be trading at possibly double this price.
m_kerr
02/9/2021
18:23
also added $10m in July and another $10m in August so cash is climbing rapidly
ntv
26/8/2021
22:44
st on investor chronicle book value 0f 1029 p with 150 million can at hand
bubloo
26/8/2021
16:44
"The stock looks very cheap" So cheap, the company won't buy in its own shares for cancellation even below intrinsic value or ahead of a re-rating, the former action being something which could provoke the latter. Strange.
nobull
26/8/2021
14:50
Having mentioned the cashflow it is worth worth noting that trade payables have increased quite a lot
ntv
26/8/2021
12:24
The stock looks very cheap and H2 will most likely be even better. hxxps://twitter.com/EasyBrent/status/1430851232483225602
easybrent
26/8/2021
11:32
$159m of idle cash. What are they going to do with it?
nobull
26/8/2021
11:19
Today's results are way beyond what I was expecting, absolutely stonking set of figures! This should really fly on those figures, however due average daily volumes being circa 10k for the past few months, I doubt this is on many investors radars. I'm surprised with their lack of debt and the amount of cash they have, that there is not a better dividend policy in place. VectorVest valued this at over £10 and that was before todays results.
speny
26/8/2021
10:57
Like I said a while back they are currently generating $10m per month
ntv
26/8/2021
10:41
The results are simply stunning. A marketcap of m322US$ Half of this is cash in the bank : m160,6US$ In six month they produced a record m62US$ cash flow. The highest ever, even better than in the bonanza years of 2008-2014. If they go on like this for 18 months, the cash will equal the marketcap. This is incredibly cheap at the moment!
skanjete2
14/8/2021
07:52
"We, nevertheless, expect a pullback in the CPO price as the crop production improves further from the second half of the year." NTV, I agree with you, despite the above from the CEO. AEP had an average ex-mill gate price of $673 in Q1, and MPE, $726 in H1. If the operational gearing really is 9x compared with MPE's 2x then that probably means the results are going to be very good indeed, I wonder? Not invested here, but I watch with interest. The cash mountain maybe doesn't help (unless they announce plans to do something profitable with it), but what does that matter, in the grand scheme of things, with such gearing? With an admin expense that is half REA's, that is another good thing. REA needs to get someone who can run the whole operation, at a fraction of the cost, from an Iban or Dayak long house with wifi, or alternatively WFH. JMV.
nobull
10/8/2021
14:32
Results due soon. They should be good
ntv
03/7/2021
14:12
Skanjete, thanks for that. I think the fact that AEP is open to meeting its shareholders in the UK in person is a good sign, and that the accumulation of cash, while detrimental to the overall ROCE, probably isn't due to inattention to the business or for the reasons hinted at by IHR in his post above. I think I get the reason now. Thanks. MPE claims it is waiting for the RSPO rules to bed down before extension planting, but I don't think that is entirely the real reason either. I looked up your moratorium on new planting and found this: www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/10/01/two-years-on-ban-on-new-palm-oil-plantations-brings-little-change.html (please put h t t p s : / / in front for the link to work, omitting the spaces) BTW, I would expect AEP to have the best CAGR simply because it changed to a lower payout ratio a few years' ago. The cash build up probably holds back the performance of the share price (damages the growth rate?) as does the low payout ratio, but the good news is the time to buy, as ST in IC presumably thinks, is before these factors change, assuming one is confident that cpo prices are not about to go into free fall. JMV.
nobull
01/7/2021
16:22
AEP is the best managed palmoil plantation business, by far. People say shareholders don't see a share of the profits, but if you make a long time stock price comparison with the other plantations (Sipef, MPE, REA, Astra Agro Lestari, Wilmar,...) AEP is the clear winner. And that with a very conservative balance sheet. Besides, if opportunity arises, they do use the cash. I remember they used some cash in the years 2000-2002 to buy in their own stock when it was even cheaper than now. They also made some very nice acquisitions. Bina Pitri was a phenomenal investment I remember. So I think it pays to just have some patience. The case for palmoil is that consumption keeps rising by about 3%/year since palmoil is by far the cheapest vegetable oil. There is also they use as biofuel which is considered to be the solution for CO2 reduction from shipping and air travel. Production of palmoil won't grow that easily anymore since there is a moratorium on new plantations since 2011. The major expansions of those years are mature now, and it seems production won't rise that easily anymore. So I think the chances are reasonable that we have a prolonged period of firm prices (>750US$).
skanjete2
01/7/2021
15:30
thanks for the correction nobull. I've asked some questions of our Executive Director, Dato’ John Lim Ewe Chuan (DJLEC). Need to start abbreviating these! DJ-LEC for a start. Our BOD are getting on a bit. Madam Lim Siew Kim is 72yo and DJLEC is 71. They do seem quite careful custodians of the business....but I'd like to understand why shareholders don't see a share of the profits.
gb904150
01/7/2021
14:46
GB, many thanks for that. I think you mean ffb per hectare. Multiply your figures by about 0.24 (24% extraction rate?) and you should get over 5 mt/ha of CPO, I wonder? Yes, your unit production cost sounds wonderful. REA doesn't publish its one, probably because they are excessively high.
nobull
01/7/2021
13:26
That seems low compared to AEP's metric tonnes/hectare? The Group’s strategies - yield per hectare above 22 mt/ha - minimum mill production efficiency of 110% - production costs below $300/mt For the year under review, Indonesian operations achieved - a yield of 18.9 mt/ha - 133% mill efficiency - production cost of $280/mt. This compared favourably to 2019 - a yield of 18.1 mt/ha - 132% mill efficiency - production cost of $285/mt. 100% mill efficiency = 16 hours a day for 300 days per annum.
gb904150
01/7/2021
11:54
If only the REA CEO (£490k) would take note of John Lim Ewe Chuan's salary... I expect JLEC is part of the family, and that's the reason for the incredibly modest salary. I can only look on in wonderment at AEP, as REA has just got itself an additional $20m debt headroom fix, possibly to blow on director bonuses while adding $2m a year to financing costs, and, as a result, pushing out the prospect of it ever being profitable out to infinity - yet, agriculturally, it does the job right (5.5 tonnes of CPO per mature hectare?). Mdm Lim could easily blow some of that cash mountain planting up all that vacant land - so why doesn't she?
nobull
01/7/2021
09:30
NTV - can you give any of the text of the tip? Just a summary would be nice to understand the rationale. On fundamentals AEP is dirt cheap. Soft commodities and food in general look to be a good investment for the next few years and CPO prices are booming. That, plus some loosening of levies and export taxes are supportive. That said, Madam Lim Siew Kim is a majority shareholder (20.2m shares) with 51% via Genton international Ltd and that seems to put a lid on the Mcap here. She doesn't seem interested to distribute any profits via dividends (0.1% yield). So what is the plan? The small amount of bank borrowings $8.8m have been paid off. There's no large reinvestment in operations/growth...so it's not clear. Nor does she appear to unfairly profit from the operations as some majority holders do . Salaries are modest and she only took $55k as remuneration in 2020. The CEO (Dato' John Lim Ewe Chuan) was only paid $103k last yaer, down from $116k. Total group remuneration was down to $48m in 2020 from $50m last year. AGM was held on 28th June in Malaysia and they said SH's could ask questions but it had to be pre 24th June and they've not released any Q&A. I noticed they said they would organise a meeting in London when possible to interact with shareholders so perhaps that's the opportunity to know more.
gb904150
Chat Pages: 79  78  77  76  75  74  73  72  71  70  69  68  Older
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