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Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Anglo-eastern Plantations Plc LSE:AEP London Ordinary Share GB0000365774 ORD 25P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  8.00 1.03% 783.00 8,406 16:35:19
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
768.00 798.00 776.00 768.00 774.00
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Food Producers 320.50 101.37 127.50 5.5 309
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
17:23:42 O 61 776.00 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
27/1/202311:51Anglo Eastern Plantations--oil my palms?1,830
01/4/202208:08ANGLO EASTERN VERY VERY CHEAP ASSETS Ј 1.40P291
12/6/200215:39Anglo Eastern Looks Dire18
11/4/200215:02Anglo Eastern Plantations Not so Dire17

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Anglo-eastern Plantations (AEP) Most Recent Trades

Trade Time Trade Price Trade Size Trade Value Trade Type
17:23:57776.0061473.36O
17:19:20770.003,16724,385.80O
15:35:41768.002,22217,064.96AT
15:23:47774.00861.92AT
15:23:47774.0017131.58AT
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Anglo-eastern Plantations (AEP) Top Chat Posts

Top Posts
Posted at 07/2/2023 08:20 by Anglo-eastern Plantations Daily Update
Anglo-eastern Plantations Plc is listed in the Food Producers sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker AEP. The last closing price for Anglo-eastern Plantations was 775p.
Anglo-eastern Plantations Plc has a 4 week average price of 728p and a 12 week average price of 728p.
The 1 year high share price is 972p while the 1 year low share price is currently 712p.
There are currently 39,490,272 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 2,394 shares. The market capitalisation of Anglo-eastern Plantations Plc is £309,208,829.76.
Posted at 26/1/2023 18:28 by nobull
"AEP is by far the better managed company. Look at their respective long term value creation."

Agreed that that has been the case in the past, but AEP is not creating value with the cash, and seems to have no plans to do so; REA should be able to reduce its net debt figure from $184m to, say, $120m over the next 18 months (it should receive a $35m coal loans repayment, which will help - yes, there is some off balance sheet 'debt' to repay too, I know, the pref arrears, but still with all that EBITDA in prospect from its oil palms business, surely getting the net debt down to $120m is do-able? $64m added to the market cap of the ords would really be some value creation. JMV.

Let's, for a laugh, come back to this after publication of the 2023 annual results of both companies(May 2024?) and see which share price has outperformed from today with REA at 101.5p and AEP at 770p. I am not saying that if REA outperforms share price wise that that is outperformance on a risk adjusted basis, just in absolute terms.

Posted at 25/1/2023 17:25 by skanjete2
Good luck on REA. You can as well buy a lottery ticket.

AEP is by far the better managed company. Look at their respective long term value creation. It's not because the share price is too low that the value isn't being created.

Besides, their stock price return is very similar as companies as MP Evans and Sipef.
The frustrating thing is that the value creation at AEP was superior to the other companies and that the share price doesn't reflect that.

Posted at 17/1/2023 15:47 by nobull
"Looked at on fundamentals AEP is in every way a superior company."

What? Ugh um... I beg to differ. AEP is being punished for its failure to use its cash profitably. The derisory dividends are fine if they use the cash mountain to grow the business, but they don't.

MPE probably has a better production volume growth profile (no, I haven't studied the AEP one, but generally markets don't get this sort of thing wrong, I wonder?). I get it that AEP are a bargain, but only if they do all the right things to out the value, but they are not. Until the BoD pull their finger out, they are fairly valued. AIMO.

BTW, I think the best are REA ords. Go figure out what their net debt will be in 18 months' time, and how the expected net debt reduction compares with the market cap of their ords. No, don't tell me the net debt reduction is all going to be added to the market cap of the prefs, or that the enterprise value is going to go through the floor due to a palm oil price crash (the latter is outside my competence to predict). I get it that REA has a terrible production volume growth profile but that's not the point. Yes, spare cash first goes to debt reduction, then maintenance capex and finally, in the far distant future, in the case of REA, to fixing the horrible production volume growth profile. REA has a better short term share price outlook, but is higher risk, so not to everyone's liking. For the self flagellaters, AEP is wonderful. Ow.

Posted at 17/1/2023 11:58 by tigerbythetail
Solid trading update out from direct peer Malaysian / Indonesian palm oil producer MPE (M.P. Evans) yesterday.
Question: has anybody ever tried writing to the senior NED of AEP to ask the company to address the extremely low rating of these shares? MPE report far more clearly and completely, they emphasise their long record of paying meaningful and increasing dividends, and they engage in share buybacks. The result is that their shares are rated, well, not highly (it's palm oil!), but at least reasonably.
Looked at on fundamentals AEP is in every way a superior company. But the share price is held back by poor reporting, derisory dividends, and no share buy-backs. Despite the company being debt free and having a huge cash pile and an EV of under £100m!
All in all, this is a crazy situation. At this share price, this company could and should pay 10%+ dividends every year...

Posted at 02/11/2022 11:05 by tigerbythetail
Trading statement out. Confirms that AEP is simply an amazing bargain at these prices. If the BoD were to announce even a "normal" dividend (let alone the "special" that they could pay out given the huge and growing cash pile) then I believe the share price would double or even triple.
Posted at 02/9/2022 10:55 by ilad60
Investors' Chronicle

it looks increasingly likely that 2022 will be a year of two halves, with record CPO prices in the first half followed by much lower prices in the second half. Admittedly, with Anglo’s shares trading on a 12-month trailing price/earnings (PE) ratio of four, 29 per cent below book value per share of 1,274p and net cash of 537p backing up more than half the share price, then the weaker backdrop for CPO prices is largely priced in.

That said, the earnings cycle has clearly peaked and with Anglo’s shares trading close to last month’s all-time closing high (952p), it now feels the right time to bank the 59 per cent paper profit if you have been following my 2020 Bargain Shares Portfolio. Take profits.

Posted at 30/4/2022 09:05 by stemis
Broadly. The percentage will differ depending on changing profits/net assets of the relevant subsidiaries. I used 85% when calculating how much of the cash and EBITDA 'belongs' to AEP shareholders.

[Edit] I think that might understate how much cash belong to AEP shareholders because some of it will be in the holding company (which is 100% ours). If you look in the cashflow statement, there was a $381k payment of dividends to non controlling interests. That's minority interests share of dividends being paid up to AEP from subsidiaries. If that's ~15% of the total then the amount AEP received was ~£2,159k. AEP only paid out $395k to AEP shareholders and I doubt the cost of running the was $1,764k (and presumably there's also management charges levied by AEP otherwise they'd be trapping losses in the holding company) so I'm guessing there is cash building up in the holding company. Shame companies don't seem to publish holding company balance sheets like they used to do...

Posted at 29/4/2022 19:44 by stemis
It hasn't decreased the real value of the net assets (which are what they are regardless of presentation), only the accounting treatment. I suspect NAV isn't a major driver of value here however.

Like other stocks benefitting from high commodity prices (e.g. SLP, SQZ etc.) I believe the share price is actually driven by sentiment wrt the continuation of these prices. Just based on H2 alone, AEP is currently valued at about 1.8 x ebitda. Even allowing for the changes in CPO export tax, prices are currently higher than H2 (although AEP is currently blighted by a temporary export ban). Cash conversion in 2021 was 70-75% of ebitda, so probably two years at this level and the valuation will be covered pretty much entirely by cash.

The negatives of course are a dominant shareholder and political risk (changes in CPO export tax, export bans, import bans on palm oil etc.), but can these really resist (in valuation terms) the rapid build up of cash taking place?

Just in passing, one of the difficulties in valuation is that there are significant minority interests in AEP. Not all of the cash, and indeed profit, belongs to AEP shareholders. I've tried to amend for that but it's quite broad brush as the interests vary by subsidiary (there's more detail in note 30).

Posted at 19/4/2022 11:32 by stemis
Situations like this are always difficult to value. The inflated price of palm oil won't last forever, so a P/E valuation on current earnings will never seem to be reflected in the share price.

However, here is my stab at an alternative. Let's assume that the situation on 31-12-20 was the status quo. Share price ~500p. Up to 31-3-22 I reckon AEP has generated around 300p/share of cash (~£155m). Currently it must be generating at around 30p a share ($15m). So a share price of 920p implies the current excess price will last about 4 months (to end of July). Obviously it wouldn't be quite as linear as that but it's rough and ready.

However, according to hxxps://www.newfoodmagazine.com/article/162772/supply-chain-ukraine/

"In Ukraine, sunflower seeds are sown in April and May and harvesting usually begins in September. Tensions and military action in agricultural areas pose risks to the supply and demand of the next growing cycle. With trading routes being blocked, import-export facilities shut down, and farmers unable to plant, the average yield per hectare of sunflower seed will take a major blow this harvesting season. "

[Lack of sunflower oil and Russian production too will maintain pressure on palm oil prices]

That could mean high prices until at least September 2023 - another 18 months. On that basis a share price of maybe 1300p would seem reasonable. Still undervalued...

Posted at 12/9/2021 08:15 by nobull
m_kerr, thanks for that. Yes, the fact AEP is a public company hence its shares can rise in price is a good defence against a claim for unfair prejudice particularly as AEP's dollar market cap. has risen over the last few weeks, probably mostly due to the rise in the cash balance reported in its H1 results (rather than due to changes in $ ex-mill gate price of CPO - if anything the ex-mill gate price has fallen recently due to the rise in September export tax).

And I still feel you are right that the share price would be massively higher if the dividend payout ratio were raised to 50% of eps, and in that sense, shareholders are being done down here. Another defence against an unfair prejudice claim might be that they are looking for reasonably priced acquisitions but haven't found any yet.

Anyway it is interesting that Simon Thompson of Investors Chronicle thinks AEP are a bargain on a forward PE of 3 or whatever, but I can't see what is going to out the locked-up value here. If I could, yes, okay, they wouldn't be this share price!

MPE probably trade at the substantial premium to book value because the DCF valuation, using, I assume, a long term $610 ex-mill gate price and a 16% discount rate, makes their plantations, and their small property development business, worth £10.99 a share (see page 94 of their 2020 AR and also the separate Khong Jaafar estate valuation document they publish on their web site).

REA trades at a massive discount to net asset value probably because it is assumed that a massive rescue capital raising will be needed at some point to reduce its horrific level of net debt. Also some of REA's 'assets' aren't exactly the type you can put up for sale, e.g. capitalised interest, but REA has the biggest operating leverage, an advantage, except when there is a backwardation on the palm oil price curve like there is now, so lots of scary times ahead for me!

MPE H1 results due out tomorrow, which I am also invested in. AEP is the only one I don't have! Maybe Simon Thompson is right after all, and I am wrong to be in REA ords. We'll see.

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