Anglo Asian Mining Share Discussion Threads

[bleepy] 27/4/2017 00:35

Mattjos

Spent some time enjoying Kruger park myself. Only ever saw 4 of the big 5. Stay safe.

Keep an eye out for those scavengers they're scrupulous.


My brother's sister in law has a farm near there. He sadly passed away before Xmas last. A lot of fond memories of that part of the world.

[mattjos] 26/4/2017 21:04

Ok mate. Best of luck. I think you must be reading a different set of accounts to me but, we each do our own thing.

[zhockey] 26/4/2017 20:38

Matt I beg to differ. AAZ IS an exploration company.

I wouldn't buy above 8p

[mattjos] 26/4/2017 20:20

Speak for yourself jeansey .. added quite a few more today. Sit and moan or get buying! this is reaching insane valuation so will simply step up my buying from here. This kind of sentiment was prevalent at 5p & like a few others I took advantage .. happy to do same now.Thank technology for limit buy orders else screwed for access in Kruger Park

[jeanesy] 26/4/2017 19:46

Another day , a 6% fall !Close to 15p now. Really dont see where the bottom is here. Where are all those buyers who think this is a wonderful opportunity.All those who still hold are seeing their profit tumble by the day ! Averaging down is all well and good but only when the shareprice starts going up and it hasn't done that for a long time.

[andrewsr] 26/4/2017 17:40

The share price peaked at about 34p when the gold price was about $1275. AAZ has followed the gold price down, but not back up again. Sentiment rather then rational thinking seems to be in control of a lot of gold miners at the moment.
It should be interesting later this week to see how the gold market responds to an out of control US debt problem re-setting the debt ceiling and Trump's demands for massive tax cuts.

[mattjos] 26/4/2017 17:02

plain daft mkt cap. As Celeritas says, this is not some pie-in-the-sky exploration company with no production or no production plant.

We're a profitable & productive mining company that is simply reviewing the multiple options it has to determine the optimum strategy for next phase of growth.

This is trading at close to just 10% of capex to date

[redtrend] 26/4/2017 16:33

With a mere 17.5m market cap I would say a lot of the market probably is here and does follow boards, so there is some point to debating here

1% of AAZ now only £175k

[zhockey] 26/4/2017 16:21

There's no point arguing with the market and the market ain't the folks that post here.

[deanroberthunt] 26/4/2017 14:01

looks very weak, plummets on small selling, 10p target?

[zhockey] 26/4/2017 12:28

JBE, what you are not getting is that I still hold those views, although I do not believe the wider market does and hence the share price will underperform in the coming months. I have said this about 5 times now.

[jbe81] 26/4/2017 12:25

Zhockey your posts from the day before you sold out

Riley, post PSA AAZ should be making $30M a year free cash flow which is more than the current Macao, that is not so bad is it? :)


Ferries, they said the objective is to expand production.

Either way you look at it the reality is that by the end of this year they will have close to no debt and a $200m plant. Everything they produce will be free cash flow.

Also they have what $250m of copper reserves?

At 20m Mcap The glass is more than half full I would say!


They can produce 55k without mining anything this year, the costs will be very low and they can utilise the workforce and machinery to get Ugur up and running. Then back to two pit operations next year.

I suspect they will find at least one more Gadir type deposit under the Gedebek pit.


So not complete BS

For the record I don't have a problem with these posts, or you selling just don't think there is any difference with what Matt did, didn't mind that either. Anyway enough of this, hope you buy back in and make some good gains when you do.

[zhockey] 26/4/2017 11:44

Hi 2SP,

Just to clarify the AL plant was not a reason for me selling, that is water under the bridge. We had the pain of that decision 2014 to 2016. Maybe those that say the AL plant was a good investment were not holding back then.

You are right that my enthusiasm was/is based on resource potential. I still think they'll get there but now it seems to be much further down the road and I know how unforgiving the market can be to AAZ.

My model suggests they will drop a lot over the next 6months and I do not want to hold all the way down, again.

All the best.

[2sporrans] 26/4/2017 11:19

I can't see the problem with either your selling or your reasons ZH.
You haven't been that bullish for months now.

It came across to me that reserves expansion was very key to your enthusiasm; hence no surprise the current uncertainties have dampened it or you would expect other investors to think that way.

As for your follow up reasons for selling such as POG collapse or mismatch of AL plant v sulphide:oxide ore resource mix, they are valid and worthwhile discussion points.
Elicited some good replies.

Same goes for others who sold, gave reasons, like Jeanesy.

It also speaks...that you are still posting here so regularly.
Perhaps you will be interested in a re-entry......in due course? [I don't question you have sold.] Sort of buy the dip?

I sold out of OMI a couple of months back [was a long term holder]; mainly because I don't see it's true AISC being less than ~$1,200/oz [might be nearer $1300/oz next 5 years.] nor want to bank on the POG getting to $1400 which makes the investment case imho. It is debt free but I think it will keep exhausting all its cash built up during low CAPEX production runs on a series of underground developments as each development is only good for 30-40k production runs - pretty much it's annual output.

The point being that when I sold, I didn't post much thereafter as it did not concern me to do so.
I look to the living.

[2sporrans] 26/4/2017 10:50

Good point about the weaker $ ED.

Allied to the weaker $ is the more muted [than broadly anticipated] US economic growth + inflation; both absolute and relative to Global.
This is reflected in the sagging US bond yields and flattening of the time curve; the projected opportunity cost of holding gold has fallen.

As for fear.
Fear of what and by whom?
Brexit is a minor consideration.
It only matters hugely to Britain; not important gold buyers.
On the other hand, e.g. Chinese buyers are key so whatever moves or impacts upon e.g. their capital flows, currency, banking, reserves mix or even their property market is well worth keeping track of.

[zhockey] 26/4/2017 10:24

Matt / JBE,

With respect your posts are complete BS, I posted that I had sold as I had a hunch the market would be sceptical and even though I was positive on the prospects, I did not want to be on the wrong side of the market in an environment of falling gold prices.

When Matt sold he went on a tirade that questioned the whole fundamental basis of the company.

My follow-up posts were in response to others posts and are consistent with my long term views expressed here.

[mattjos] 25/4/2017 20:54

Trump could do with the $ weakening if he is to see a manufacturing renaissance in the USA but, he has to battle the FED so won't be a simple matter.I don't see fear evaporating jeansey .... more like a series of potential negative events rolling in over the next year or so.Each will have to be dealt with, with varying degrees of success but, they will keep coming & one of them will not end well

[mattjos] 25/4/2017 20:46

Well, let's please keep up the debate. All, healthy stuff.I still hold, for the avoidance of doubt. Switched 55k parcel into ISA on the fall at 15.5p.Those were purchased at ave. 5.84pWill switch over more if we see further weakness as helps shift greater volume into ISA that way.Meantime, have a shedload of overseas travelling coming up so, may not be such a regular contributor until first week June when back in uk, other than when stuck in airports / trade shows.

[jeanesy] 25/4/2017 20:41

The logic is that i see POG falling as the recent strength has been driven by fear imo. That appears to be abating and therefore I see no reason for there to see arising POG. I have been reading for years that gold will rise to this and rise to that but so far the figures have been pie in the sky and gold has barely risen at all despite brexit, despite trump !

[el_duderino_7885] 25/4/2017 20:25

Where do you get $1,100 from Jeanesy? What's the logic? Bear in mind that gold is priced mainly by the dollar yen so i assume you expect the dollar to rip higher for the rest of the year?

The dollar index is now under 99! If you look at the long term chart for the dollar it's behaving almost perfectly since it failed to extend higher when it broke 100.

You really can't underestimate how important this was. No one here seems to appreciate the significance of the breakdown in the dollar in the long term chart.

The dollar should lose at least 20% now over the next few years. there is simply no way gold is going down to $1,100 in these circumstances.

Well see $1,400 this year.

[jeanesy] 25/4/2017 20:17

I didn't say it was a reason to sell. What i have said is that the recent strength in the POG was the only positive here with the falling production, temporary closure of mine, manat falling form 1.9 to 1.7, uncertainty in future, lack of drilling news. What i have said above is now the POG is falling as well. Some good news is needed otherwise this might drift further !

[brasso3] 25/4/2017 19:41

Jeanesy

While I agree with some of the criticism/ skepticism regarding AAZ, I hardly think the gold price can be a reason to sell. One month ago gold was at $1200 and now it is $1263.

[jeanesy] 25/4/2017 19:29

In the mean time gold falls some more. Id say that 1100 is far more likely than 1400. It seems that anyone who says anything negative here gets the same treatment Zhockey !

[ferries5] 25/4/2017 19:24

jbe81
mattjos
Cheers