Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[greatfull dead] 01/3/2017 12:12

haggis,

The best scenario IMHO, and the most logical.

ATB,
GD

[haggismchaggis] 01/3/2017 12:04

The probability of oil in Ruvuma is raised with every new oil discovery. L1 had oil so oil in Ruvuma was indicated. N1 had oil, adding weight to the potential for oil in Ruvuma. Now N2 has oil, adding further weight to the potential for oil in Ruvuma. The next logical step to test for oil OR gas is N3, ad N3 is also a huge gas target.

[edgar222] 01/3/2017 11:33

The Sound-like retrace here is 15p down to 11p awaiting news/consolidating.If there is to be a drift now before "mid march" (or next Monday if you want to believe Philboro on LSE) then its a buying opportunity, IMHO.

[tidy 2] 01/3/2017 11:33

borrowed via wrl board..re need for power. what i was saying the other day about unmet need, demand and availability of gas. "Today in Tanzania only a small number of households (between 10% and 30% depending upon who you ask) have power. Brownouts and blackouts are frequent and industrial development is constrained due to a shortage of power."

[thegreatgeraldo] 01/3/2017 11:03

Edge, even then depends which of Kenya, Ethiopia & Sudan you're excluding

[edgein] 01/3/2017 10:56

Tgg,

Apologies missed the word east from my message. :) Should have read east Africa's second largest economy.

Regards,
Ed.

[ngms27] 01/3/2017 10:37

Of course they could skip NT-3 for a number of reasons. The small chance of finding any oil is not relevant. This is a gas play fairway that might have oil somewhere but the probability is low on the Ruvuma acreage.

[haggismchaggis] 01/3/2017 10:30

Blackgold, I doubt very much they would skip N3 and go straight to Namisange, as the next up-dip trap to test for oil, based on Gussow's theory, is N3.

[odvod] 01/3/2017 10:25

ngms - TA works in such a swift move imho as it reflects crowds profit taking scenarios. 3 legs up usually in a short space of time almost the same nominal amount of pennies rise each time. not much of valuation going on. third leg might be greed. TA should be taken with a pinch of salt so I rode only 2 waves.

there will be a decent retrace at some point.

[thegreatgeraldo] 01/3/2017 10:19

Edgein
1 Mar '17 - 08:03 - 61383 of 61399 1 0
Tanzania doesn't need power even though its Africa's second largest economy?

Eh? What about Nigeria, South Africa, Egypt, Algeria, Angola, etc, etc?

[tidy 2] 01/3/2017 10:16

17p equates to approx 700-750 bcf

[ngms27] 01/3/2017 10:10

On a fundamental basis the shares won't hot 17p unless they discover multiple TCFs. This won't happen on the NT-2 drill alone.

TA is worth didly squat in the E&P sector, the tea leaves are a much better indicator.

[tidy 2] 01/3/2017 09:53

On a TA basis as long as we remain above 5.3 we have a shot at 17p.

[greyingsurfer] 01/3/2017 09:48

I'm wondering whether the 4 commitment exploration wells still apply over the Ruvuma licence, or at lest they are up for renegotiation.

I'm sure they are up for renegotiation, as they have been several times already. The question is, as always - what will the price of renegotiation be?

Certainly a good N-2 result will help - at the least in establishing a development licence for Ntorya. But the area covered by that license will need negotiating. And they are likely to be able to argue for a larger license if they have drilled N-3 than if they stop here.

Too many unknowns for any of us to make sensible judgements on - particularly when the N-2 results aren't in yet. However, my inclination is the same as ngms's - raise cash (or farmout) and keep drilling. The drill is available as far as we know, they could raise cash at much better prices than the last few raises, or quite possibly at this stage get a partner in. But that's all just armchair management!

Peter

[blackgold00] 01/3/2017 09:48

who's TA ?

[odvod] 01/3/2017 09:47

I sold because there are greener pastures. I might reenter when the start producing or on a decent fall. TA tells me 1 more leg higher is in it.

[traderinthemaking] 01/3/2017 09:33

Tidy 2 - I am really worry of the people "in-the-know". I have seen many examples over the years of such people, and at the end, they were solely working on their own agenda...

TITM

[edgein] 01/3/2017 09:17

Blackgold,

I wouldn't see why the Tanzanians would want to revoke an exploration licence from their potentially most successful onshore jvp to date. they need all the investment they can get now into their gas and coal energy projects, they're one of Africa's fastest developing economies that requires energy stability. Imo if the plan is to develop they'll likely get extensions to those licences. If the plan is further appraisal they'll likely get extensions to those licences. Best to wait for the plan though. I'd expect the jvp to update on future plans on concluding the flow test optimization.

Regards,
Ed.

[blackgold00] 01/3/2017 09:12

I'm wondering whether the 4 commitment exploration wells still apply over the Ruvuma licence, or at lest they are up for renegotiation. that is if Aminex are successful with the testing and in applying for the 25-year development licence over the Ntorya Appraisal Area. and in the short term if NT-3 is considered not to be needed for the viable development of the Ntorya field then maybe the next well to be drilled will be an exploration well over Namisange

from 06 February 2017 NTORYA-2 WELL DRILLING RESULT

"Depending on the results of the well test, the Company intends to apply for a 25-year development licence over the Ntorya Appraisal Area."

from half year results

OPERATING HIGHLIGHTS

-- "Ruvuma Production Sharing Agreement terms extended by one year with work programme changed to allow the Company to focus on appraisal and development"

"The successful capital raise will enable appraisal drilling at Ruvuma to proceed rapidly, following up on the success of the Company's Ntorya-1 discovery which flowed gas at 20 mmcfd with 139 bbls of associated condensate, with a view to commercialising the Ruvuma area at the earliest possible opportunity and building on the existing production basis now established at Kiliwani North. The original Ruvuma PSA is close to expiry but, thanks to the cooperation of the Tanzania Ministry of Energy and Mines, the Company has been granted a one-year extension without penalties which will enable appraisal wells to be drilled. If these are successful, an application will be made to convert part of the PSA to a 25-year development licence."

"As well as the proposed Ntorya-2 and Ntorya-3 wells, several further well locations were identified from the 2014/2015 mapping, including potential well locations at Likonde and Namisange."

"Since 30 June, Aminex has received formal Ministerial approval for the extension of the Mtwara Licence of the Ruvuma PSA. The Licence has been extended by one year to December 2017. Negotiations are ongoing for the extension of the Lindi Licence and its work commitments and, at the recommendation of the Minister, Aminex is applying for a two-year extension."

[tidy 2] 01/3/2017 09:03

Yes mate read it and replied. Cheers

[tidy 2] 01/3/2017 08:49

Edgein. PM waiting for you.