Aminex Share Discussion Threads

[tidy 2] 02/3/2017 14:21

Cove Energy's long-running takeover saga has finally come to an end after Thai state oil firm PTT Exploration & Production announced Friday that its $1.9 billion offer for the East Africa-focused firm had been declared wholly unconditional. PTTEP said that it had received valid acceptances from Cove shareholders in respect of more than 463 million shares. This represents approximately 94.3 percent of the existing share capital of the company – well in excess of the 75 percent required for it to takeover the company. Cove shareholders who have not yet accepted the offer were urged by PTTEP to do so without delay, said PTTEP in a statement. PTTEP has now made a request to the London Stock Exchange that Cove's share listing on the Alternative Investment Market is cancelled. Friday's announcement marked the end of a takeover battle for Cove that began in February with a $1.57 billion offer for Cove from Royal Dutch Shell. This immediately prompted PTTEP to emerge from the shadows with its own offer of $1.77 billion for Cove. Shell and PTTEP both believe that the Rovuma offshore basin in Mozambique, which Cove and its partner Anadarko are both exploring for significant reserves of natural gas, is suitable for liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects. Cove holds an 8.5-percent interest in Rovuma, while it also has a 10-percent interest in onshore Mozambique where a 2D seismic program is currently underway. Shell was prepared to go as far as raising its offer to $1.8 billion during the takeover battle, but would not budge from this amount after PTTEP raised its offer to $1.9 billion in late May. However, Shell finally pulled out of the contest in mid-July when it stated it would no longer participate in the auction for Cove. PTTEP said back in February that it plans to use its extensive experience in building a natural gas-based economy for the benefit of Mozambique and will support the construction of a world-scale LNG facility in the country that makes use of the more than 30 trillion cubic feet of natural gas resources available in the Rovuma basin. http://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/120069/cove_energy_takeover_finally_over

[edgein] 02/3/2017 14:21

Tidy,

That's certainly a decent length of gas flare alright!

Regards,
Ed.

[edgein] 02/3/2017 14:13

"I also partly agree with ngms that there is capacity behind pipe, not only from M&P but also from KN-1, and quite possibly Orca by then which would satisfy that."

Oh there certainly is behind pipe potential from MetP et al, but they don't have exclusive rights to sell that gas, they'll have to compete for sales like any other supplier. Like JonnyT and you were assuming until very recently.

"There will be other growth, cement factories, and other possible industrial uses, but that's not going to happen by end 2018."

Apparently there is a diesel fueled cement factory right beside Ntorya, that's before 2018.

"But that is a drop in the ocean stuff compared to what Ruvuma is likely to be capable of producing."

Yes but any near term development doesn't need to include all the potential of Ruvuma, nor even much of the potential at Ntorya. It could be as little as a two well development. But again the point has been made and there is going to be more discussed of greater relevance nearer term than the future gas sales of Ntorya.

Regards,
Ed.

[tidy 2] 02/3/2017 13:59

Flaring https://twitter.com/andy64570/status/837278774890795009

[greyingsurfer] 02/3/2017 13:58

Do you not believe that those two gas to power plants will be completed in 2018

It's certainly something I'll only believe when I see it. I also partly agree with ngms that there is capacity behind pipe, not only from M&P but also from KN-1, and quite possibly Orca by then which would satisfy that. It's not impossible that if the plants are actually finished on time (not holding breath) that TPDC might want to take some gas from Ntorya, in the same way they took some demand from M&P to get KN-1 up and partly running - having multiple sources on tap is a good idea. But that is a drop in the ocean stuff compared to what Ruvuma is likely to be capable of producing.

There will be other growth, cement factories, and other possible industrial uses, but that's not going to happen by end 2018. Frankly I'm not sure AEX will even be around to supply gas on the sort scale Ruvuma will probably end up doing. Which is why I'm more interested in proving up the acreage as far as possible, and meeting licence conditions as far as possible to keep claim to the acreage with a little renegotiation cost as possible.

Regardless of funding 3 wells, after N-3, may not be realistic - I doubt they have 3 drill ready sites lined up, but I'd like to see any additional progress made that is possible. That's where the value can be grown, not in trying to sell perhaps 20mscfd sometime in 2018-2020. That may well happen in parallel - I'm certainly not saying it shouldn't, or it won't - but production is a side show as far as creating value goes in the next year.

Peter

[edgein] 02/3/2017 13:56

Baby,

Sometimes its better to have lunatics running an asylum when the staff are clearly incompetent. :)

Regards,
Ed.

[edgein] 02/3/2017 13:54

A bit like saying SOU won't be able to sell gas to Europe as Gazprom have got that covered. But hang on a minute Gazprom don't have exclusivity over gas sales agreements in Europe either. :)

Regards,
Ed

[edgein] 02/3/2017 13:47

Ok JonnyT,

Lets be having the links to the exclusivity agreement for MetP and Wentworth on current and future gas sales agreements then. I guess you've seen it, how were the contract's for the gas from Songo Songo facilities arranged when MetP and Wentworth have a monopoly for Tanz gas?

Gerald

Funnily enough there is significant energy demands in Tanz regardless of the planned national LNG plant. Why are the chinese all over KIBO, NCCL and EDL? LNG related, nope.

Regards,
Ed.

[warbaby43] 02/3/2017 13:25

greyingsurfer, you are, I fear, banging your head against the proverbial, so I would be inclined to give up if I were you - lunatics/asylum etc.

[thegreatgeraldo] 02/3/2017 13:20

Funnily enough, the biggest boost to industrial activity in Tanzania will come when one of the mooted LNG plants is sanctioned.

[ngms27] 02/3/2017 13:16

Ed, yes those power plants will come on stream but they are going to be supplied by M&P/Wentworth NOT Ntorya gas. That demand was built into their GSA.

[tidy 2] 02/3/2017 12:54

https://twitter.com/andy64570/status/837278774890795009

[extrader] 02/3/2017 12:46

Hi all,

If you look at the BoD shareholdings and options/warrants, it's pretty clear that they have a considerable financial incentive to get the best deal for AEX and therefore themselves/us.

I'm comfortable that they'll do what they can within the various local constraints - and suggest that we (a) leave them to it and (b) don't feed the trolls.

ATB

[edgein] 02/3/2017 12:33

Peter,

Do you not believe that those two gas to power plants will be completed in 2018, does that not increase gas demand before 2020 for example? As well as growing industrial demand for gas happening right now or has Wentworth got that wrong? I don't remember seeing one post regarding the tie in of Ntoyra to the national pipeline within 6 months. All I've ever seen or heard is the interview suggesting that Ntorya if successful could be developed within months rather than years (no specifics on how many months in that interview). Not seen any mention anywhere that it includes tie in to the national pipeline or competing for gas sales contracts to the two new plants. Who knows how JB or NR plan to develop this, it might be gas to power to local industry, perhaps ask them. Personally I'd prefer to wait for the news first and then guess after. :) May even get an update on optimized rates next week and maybe on future plans too perhaps.

Regards,
Ed.

[berber1] 02/3/2017 12:25

Thanks Edgein.
an 8% rise of AEX in Irish stock exchange sounds quiet positive.
Cheers

[greyingsurfer] 02/3/2017 12:23

Edgein, I'm only to happy for anyone to post about Tanzanian gas demand. It's a very significant topic for debate here :-).However, when people start suggesting that N-2 is likely to be linked to the gas spine within 6 months, or that discussion of AEX's licence conditions is a mistake as it won't make the share price go up I'm likely to respond, and as an increasingly grumpy old man my responses may be a bit blunt. However, you should also be aware, if you are not already, that Tanzanian estimates of gas demand growth have been missed many times, and until proved otherwise I would assume they would again. Of course demand will come, I see no argument on this board about that, but demand capable of taking large amounts from AEX's Ruvuma acreage is several years away, and planning on that not being the case would be a mistakePeter

[edgein] 02/3/2017 12:14

Berber,

Irish stock exchange.

Regards,
Ed.

[berber1] 02/3/2017 12:13

Tidy 2, what is Iseq? thanks

[edgein] 02/3/2017 12:06

Captain,

I was born in 1906 after all.

Regards,
Ed.

[tidy 2] 02/3/2017 11:41

Iseq up 8%Just a case of AEX.L catching up @ 7p equivalent in to close

[bunbooster2] 02/3/2017 11:36

The share price is no fun this week. It displeases me. It's like the bad decade all over again. Thanks for nothing Brian Hall!